Tim Kaine: Failed Samaurai, Aspiring School Marm

Over the years I have heard various fables.  One was a samurai tale that stuck with me-perhaps because it played a part in an episode of “Thirtysomething”-and went like this: 

Two samurai warriors from opposing factions encountered each other on a mountain road. Each drew their sword and assumed a combat position. Neither one moved. Even as the wind increased, neither one moved. Even as the clouds opened and each soaked through, neither one moved. Why? Because the first one to move would commit, and in doing so lose the advantage. So they both stood there in the rain, doing nothing except getting wet.

This tale sums up how Governor Kaine (a/k/a “The Gov”) has dealt with transportation issues. Neither he nor the democratic contingent sent up a serious budget alternative to the GOP plan, instead assuming at each turn that the contentiousness between the GOP factions in the House and the Senate would preclude agreement on a budget, and he could go to the commonwealth in 2007 with proof of the GOP inability to govern.

Then the GOP started internal negotiations, and still The Gov refused to lead or govern or offer an alternative. Apparently he thought there would be defections, the GOP plan would fail, and then armed with two consecutive budget deadlocks he could take the inability argument to the people.

Imagine his surprise when the dust settled, the smoke cleared, and the sweat dried…the one thing he really did not expect to happen actually happened…a transportation funding bill passed the General Assembly.

Now the WaPo reports that The Gov

“will crisscross Virginia starting this week for a “statewide discussion” about the Republican-backed transportation package to decide how it should be changed.”

The article goes on to talk about all the state programs that will be endangered by the plan now on his desk.  Note the language-not whether it should be changed, but how it should be changed.

To this I simply must say…Our Gov-What a Turkey.

He has every right to not like the Transportation Funding Plan. Shoot, I don’t like the Transportation Funding Plan.

So why is he a Turkey?

The Gov and the Democrats did not seriously advocate for their own plan to fund transportation.  Instead they gambled on a deadlock between GOP factions and backed the sales tax plan offered by The Chich.  They gambled, and they lost.

Now he runs around all high and mighty about how bad the GOP plan is when he and his party took their job so seriously they did not offer their own plan.

 The Transportation Funding Plan is not good.  It has at best elements that will make for a good one shot infusion of road cash, but it is not a long term solution.

Virginia does not face a transportation problem.  We can all get to where we need to get to.  What we have is an access and mobility problem, and the plan does nothing to address a myriad of issues from private funding to toll roads to land use issues and on and on and on…

But the GOP took their shot, and the Democrats did not.  Now Governor Kaine is running around like an old time school marm who gives an assignment, gives the students freedom to complete the assignment as they see fit, and then pitches a hissy fit when things are not done as she envisioned it being done.

I understand the governor has the prerogative to seek input.  But to attack legislation that addresses a problem that he and his party refused to address…well, that does not exhibit the courage of the samaurai.  It reflects the timidity and cowardice of the bushwhacker who hides during a fight, then wants a medal because he rushed out and shot the enemy wounded.

At a time when we need leadership, we instead get an old school marm…bitter that she is not more appreciated, tolerated only because of the office held, and never to be remembered fondly or respectfully.

What a turkey.  What a pity.

I Hope it Gets Better…

If you bop over to Ben’s joint. You will find a link for the NLS/RK blog talk radio, and in the latest section Ben and the RK boys take great pleasure noting that Ken Cuccinnelli voted for the GOP transportation package, that this legislation includes fee increases, which equate to tax increases…and that Janet Oleszek, the Cooch’s most likely opposition, is bashing him for violating his no new taxes pledge. Ben and the RK boys think this is a riot, and apparently that this is a great issue for her.

Right.

If this is the best she has, we may as well call this election for Cuccinelli right now as this attack brings into question whether Janet O. is a serious candidate. If this type of gotcha politics is the best the Democrats have, then new Minority Leader and blog basher Ward Armstrong will have a long night on election night.

The Senate Democrats voted against the package, and Governor Kaine thinks the funding in said legislation is flawed…because more and different money is needed! Janet O. is complaining because The Cooch violated a no tax pledge by voting for a funding package that her party thinks does not raise taxes enough! And had he voted against the package she would be attacking him for failing to address transportation issues. Gotcha politics devoid of substance already-and the snow has not completely melted away! How marvelous!

As some of you recall I currently plan on voting for the Cooch. However, that does not mean that I am averse to a reasoned debate of the issues facing the Commonwealth. But attacks like this are just “gotcha” efforts that make little sense and ultimately lessen those making the charges and enhance those being attacked.

It is reminiscent of the Judy Feder attack on Frank Wolf when he voted against a proposed legislation that would assign a representatives name to an earmark. Congressman Wolf voted against the bill as it was fig leaf legislation that does not really address the matter of lobbying reform. Feder criticized Wolf for his vote…until it was pointed out that the bill was (a) a rule, not a law, (b) would cease to be in effect when that congress ended, (c) was truly a piece of fig leaf legislation to provide GOP cover in the 11/2006 voting, and-perhaps most important (d) almost every democratic representative voted against it also.

Suddenly, the wrong headed and foolish attack was dropped. Perhaps the same will happen here.

Nonetheless, the Janet O. comments are unfortunately typical of how the Virginia Democrats have approached this legislative session. While the GOP is hamstrung by its inability or unwillingness to create a unified message and vision for the Commonwealth, the Democrats are equally hamstrung by a desire to regain power coupled with an unwillingness to actually lead. The primary concern facing the Commonwealth is still transportation…but what did we get? The GOP cobbled together a plan that is at best a stop gap plan, but it is a plan that it created and mobilized its people to vote for. The Democrats did not offer a plan, instead hiding behind the shadow and ego of GOP state Senator John Chichester and his monstrous plan to apply the sales tax to gasoline.

The only thing Janet O. should be beating up on the Cooch about here is whether she thinks he should have voted for the Chichester plan or for the democratic plan. People in Northern Virginia want more money spent on transportation, and voting for a plan that puts more money into the transportation pot-even if a no new taxed pledge was broken, and I am not sure technically that it was-is not going to get folks so angry as to toss out an incumbent.

..oh, wait, there was no real democratic plan…sorry, forgot about that. There was not even a plan from Governor Kaine, just the use of profanities to demean the GOP plan.

I hope it gets better than this in all the legislative campaign this fall…but I will not be holding my breath!

Bwana at 250-A View from My Keyboard

This marks my 250th blog posting. I moved from itinerant to semi-regular blogger, I left the nightmare of Blogger for the safe pool of WordPress, and apparently more folks than my immediate family typically take a gander at my posts. Things have changed, and I thought I would take this time to ruminate about the blogosphere…because the more things have changed, the more they have stayed the same.

Blogs still stand as outposts in the cyberworld where anyone can state their opinion on any subject they want. One can rail, rant, and bay at the moon. One can post everything from pictures to political positions and everything in between.

There have been many changes. The world is much more aware of blogs, especially in the political forum. Blogs have become a handy way for organizations to have a website without having an official website. More folks are blogging, with a wide variety of businesses including blogs as part of their customer/user feedback process

There are numerous new factors driving blogs faster and with more velocity than ever before, but I will just touch on a few: immediacy, anonimity, unity, and money.

The immediacy has always been there…after all, what is the point of an online journal if not to share thoughts quickly with the world? But the blogs are now a recognized fast response medium. From the bloggers who took issue with Dan Rather and his GWB National Guard report to George Allen’s Macaca Moment we have seen blogs provide a way to get information to support attacks and coutner-attacks up quickly. They also provide a way to spread the word of the “inside baseball” that goes on within any realm of activity…and that is especially true about Virginia politics, where we have an election every year.

Well…duh, you might say. So what else is new?

What is new is that at the same time that the public is coming to terms with the ability of blogs to pump out information fast, the MSM media is cutting back. The MSM is trying to save money, and is cutting lose reporters left and right. The WaPo had a couple of well publicized cuts, and we fans of NBC-4 in DC have seen several familiar and favorite figures leave as the National Broadcasting System moved to NBC 2.0. Result? While there may be as many talking heads on TV, there are fewer human assets under the corporate umbrella providing news. They are losing not only reporters, but also the network of contacts that reporter has built.

The MSM needs to be able to go somewhere to generate leads and ideas…and that is where Blogs come in.

Your typical MSM reporter can now speed click though the web, find some blogs that cover his subject matters/area…you know, like-say-Virginia Politics…and keep an eye on them for leads. It is quick, easy, and cheap.

That doesn’t mean it works…

Example-in the Virgina 10th Congressional district last fall the blogs and the MSM followed each other around on the same track, noting that Judy Feder was raising a bazillion dollars, that the 10th district demographics were changing, and look at that non-partisan poll that had Frank Wolf leading by only 47-42. Apparently wanting to be able to say they had been the first to say they saw an upset, bloggers and MSM refused to listen to suggestions that the poll had over sampled democrats, that Wolf had plenty of money, that folks were hapyy with the job he was doing. Instead, the term “stealth campaign” was used to refer to a supposedly somnolent Wolf campaign.

So the MSM and bloggers followed each other round and round about the competitve Virginia 10th district congressional race. Imagine their surprise when Judy Feder was blown out of the water by over 16%.

MSM cuts will mean a greater use of blogs to generate new leads and find current “information. How accurate those leads are depends on the judgement and research of the blogger…so I imagine it will be a much used, albeit risky, new source.

Anonimity, or lack of verifiability, is a terrible issue in many forms across the internet. The issue arises everywhere from chat rooms to MySpace…is the person you are communicating with really who/what they say they are? Anonimity will continue to drive the blog world…which is sort of sad. Bloggers like me will adopt pseudonyms. Some will do so to avoid identification due to work or political issues.

Those like me will do it to protect their privacy and potentially their family. I still shudder that the BVBL/Greg Letieq-Daily Whackjob/Greg Bouchillon throwdown of last spring and the vicious postings that followed.

But at least pseudonyms allow an ideological identity to be established and create a degree of responsibility. I have no idea who “t” is, but if postings count then I can say with some confidence that he/she is a devoted pro-life advocate. If someone posts as “t” and makes a claim that is contrary to the profile “t” has built, the poseur poster will quickly be denounced.

Unfortunately, many posters simply use anonymity to spit fire and brimstone.

A prime example came last November when Commonwealth Conservative went dark. Chad Dotson made the announcement a week or so after the 2006 elections that he was closing up due to increasing job pressures plus the need to run for reelection. The closing was mentioned in several blogs, including Not Larry Sabato…where the anonymous dogs began to bay and call him a “loser” and implied he is a hypocrite. Not one of the blogosphere’s happier moments.

The tone of a blog is set by the blogger, and posters follow suit. However, that is not the way it always is, and…unfortunately…that is the way it will continue to be…I doubt the bushwhack brigade will be decamping anytime soon. Conaway Haskins proposed the idea of “Society of Bloggers” to set standards by which blogs would be conducted. The aside has much to say for it beyond a hot acronym. The problem is typically not the bloggers-although it would be good if were always on our best behavior-it’s the posters who use anonimity as a shield to say whatever they want without any sense of decorum or constraint.

Unity-for lack of a better word-is coming at us fast. While it is not a tsunami, and will not submerge the independent blogger, I predict we will see more blogs like Raising Kaine which is really less a blog than an umbrella “community” that allows for multiple people to blogger without having to arrange the contributor type arrangement seen at Republitarian, Bearing Point, and Tooconservative (to name a few). Of course, this can put the lead dog on the blog in a bit of an embarassing position if one of his diarists posts something the lead dog doesn’t like…C’est la vie, c’est la guerre, c’est la pomme de terre.

These communities create a synergy amoung the diarists/posters…it also provides one stop shopping for the MSM types searching for information!

I think the Unified Blog-be it a Community effort or a joint contributor arrangment-will be seen more and more in the future. Why? The combining of information, the thrill of finding like minded people to work with, and the fact that quality blogging is like work. It may be work you enjoy, it may be work you are passionate about, but writing a quality blog piece (at least for we mere mortals) requires time, concentration, editing, and attention to detail…not what you normally find in a hobby. The time involved may not be worth it, the time involved may not be available, or professional considerations may argue against it. Look on the left side of this blog, and see the Blog Boot Hill section. All quality blogs that have gone dark because of time issues…Chad and work, Norm and burn out (although now reborn at Bearing Drift) Bucky in the Mineshaft, Conaway works with Webb, and the long lamented much missed Sic Semper Tyrannis….all matters of time and burnout.

This does not mean we will lose solo practicioners, but it does mean that the group efforts-no matter the format or partisan standing-will become more prevalent.

Then there is the matter of money, greenbacks, coin of the realm. It surprises folks to see there is money in blogging, but more and more there is. Whether it is on staff for a candidate or posting advertisements on the blog there is some money to be made. Unfortunately, advertising means you need to pull in viewers. Viewers mean you have to provide a hook to get them there. Too often this means sensationalism, or borderline misrepresentation of facts.

Advertising also gives some degree of power to the big volume blogs. They have the traffic to drive folks to other blogs through links and recommendations, which means they can positively impact another blogs bottom line. While I don’t have ads, something that happened here last month is a point in case.

On January 11th I posted a lengthy piece on Jim Gilmore. It was something that was rattling around in my head for some time, took a couple of drafts, and came in at over 2500 words. It started to get some attention, still gets hit each week, and is arguably the second most viewed piece I have posted.

On January 15th I posted a piece on something stupid said by David Albo that I noted in an article in the Washington Post. This little oh-by-the-way piece ended up getting over 500 views over the next two days.

The difference? Ben Tribbett linked to the second one on NLS…and the deluge of link clickers was immense.

The presence of some degree of money may impact how the blogs deal with each other. For instance, will a high volume GOP blog be willing to link to pieces by a high volume democratic blogger they despise just to make money? Hard to say, but the presence of money will start to play a role in considerations.

The list of things that have changed is much longer than this, but prudence, aching fingers and a smoking keyboard suggest I cease and post.

I will say as I pass the 250 mark that this whole blogging thing has been a blast, and I have no doubt it will continue to be…and to that end I will offer a few partiing thoughts to:

My beloved SWMBO-Thank you for getting me going on this blog thing…
Chad Dotson-Thanks for CC, congrats on the judgeship, and I hope to meet you some day.
Norm L-Welcome back to your new home at The Drift
Ben Tribbett-You are the best number cruncher in the Virginia blogosphere. You and Kenton Ngo should self publish a statistical analysis of Virginia politics…Between your analysis and his graphics it could go large.
The Folks at Raising Kaine-I disagree with the vast majority of stuff you post, but your site sets the standard for effective political blogging in Virginia and across the country…regardless of what Kos says!
Conaway, Not Buck Turgidson, the crew at Sic Semper Tyrannis-Happy Trails, and I hope we see you back!
Waldo-Your aggregator-repeat, YOUR aggregator-is a great tool and has revolutionized how much impact blogs can have.
Republitarian-Don’t worry, my stuff is coming soon!
BVBL-Don’t change one thing
James Young-Same thing
Jim Hoeft-You have the finest conservative blog in the state-keep it up!
Barnie Day and James Atticus Bowden-One day I hope I write half as well as you guys.
Anke Cheney-Thank you for keeping us all in line…and finally..
Vivian Paige-Not much to say beyond you are “Simply the Best”

Be good, post often, and I better get started on post #251.

The Clinton’s Suddenly Want Ethical Fundraising?

Apparently Team Clinton is ticked off because David Geffen, after raising $1,300,000.00 for Barack Obama, voiced his opinion that Hillary C. could not reunite the country and that The Comeback Kid himself is a “reckless guy”.

Hillary’s staff cried out in pain, demanding an apology, that Geffen sever ties with Obama, and that funds raised by Geffen be returned.

Obama’s campaign politely refused, and asked where was the Clintonian ire when Geffen was sleeping in the Lincoln bedroom and raising $18 million for Bill Clinton.

Glad to see that the Clinton’s are suddenly-and belatedly-showing some sensitivity toward campaign fundraising…even if it is eing done in opposition to Hillary…one must start somewhere.

Given the documented ethical excesses of the Clinton White House, from peccadilloes to pardons and everything in between, one might think of the wisdom bestowed years ago to those who live in glass houses.

One would be wrong…

Abso-friggin’-lutely amazing

Pelosi Lives the LBJ Prophecy

After the Johnson landslide in 1964, the congressional democrats enjoyed astromical majorities.  President Johnson, a child of Capital Hill, called his folks together and said they had to get all their major legislation passed within six months, and their critical legislation passed within a year.  His aides saw the huge majorities, and asked why.  LBJ explained that a huge majority meant a wide variety of interests were represented in the Democratic caucus, and that sooner or later these differences would cause the huge caucus to splinter.

LBJ called that one on the head.  12 months later the legislative consensus, buffeted by Vietnam on the one side and competing domestic interests on the other, began to fall apart…18 months later members were running for reelection…and 24 months later the GOP had won back 47 seats and the huge majority was gone.

It seems Speaker Pelosi has the same problems with a much smaller majority, but on a different front.

Today’s Washington Post describes how Liberal bloggers are setting their sights on Democratic Representative Ellen Tauscher. Tauscher is from a California district next to San Francisco. Despite her high ratings from traditional democratic groups and her zero rating from the NRA, she is apparently not pure enough on the Iraq Fandango to satisfy Das Kos and others in the Ned Lamont wing of the Democratic Party.

The article suggests

The anti-Tauscher backlash illustrates how the Democratic takeover has energized and emboldened the party’s liberal base, ratcheting up the pressure on the party’s moderates.

The Kos is quoted in the article as promising:

“a vicious fight for her seat.” He’s often portrayed as a raving ideologue, but he’s really a savvy strategist; he has no problem supporting conservative Democrats in conservative districts, such as new Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.). But he sees no need to tolerate a DLC type in Tauscher’s district, where Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) received 58 percent of the presidential vote in 2004.

Later in the article Steve Rosenthal, founder of the liberal Working for Us PAC, is quoted:

“We’re not going to the Heath Shulers of the world and saying, ‘We want you to be more like Barney Frank”

I see…Kos, Rosenthal, and their lefty fellows have no problem with a conservative Democrat if that is what is needed to win a district, but in a district they see as liberal they think it imperative to take on a Democratic incumbent.

Well, that clears that up. Apparently it is not about representative democracy, it is not even about ideology, it is about pure power. If we need you to win a district, we will back you not matter what. Looks like Kos and DeLay have much more in common than many will admit.

It should be an interesting time for the Speaker as she tries to keep her majority functioning at the same time centrist members of her caucus have to protect themselves from bushwhackers in rive gauche portion of the party.

Read the article…if this piece is even half right, it shows that the Republican Party is not the only political party at war with itself.

One Thing is For Sure…

This PM I happened across the following paragraph in a reflection by SI writer Peter King about the American Cemetery near Omaha Beach:

“And in the placid, 172-acre American Cemetery, kept so pristinely by a staff of 25 gardeners that it would pass for a Connecticut golf course if not for the 9,387 Italian marble crosses that uniformly dot the serene place above the sea, you see grave sites of thousands and thousands of eternally resting men (and four women). The crosses, with inscriptions, face west toward America, as perfect a cemetery as there could be on earth.”

I got teary reading the rest of the piece, but as I finished I realized something.

Whoever laid out that cemetery was not from the American South.

Because if they were, one significant detail would be different.

I have seen it in numerous cemeteries and courthouse greens across Virginia. 

Can you identify the detail?

You see, the tombstones would not be facing toward home, but toward Germany…so they could keep an eye on the people they fought…just in case.

WaPo called on Coverage Hypocrisy

The complete lack of disinterest and journalistic  ethics by the Wapo in the Allen-Webb campaign is noted in today’s WaPo LTE section. Scott Michael of Arlington notes that last June Democratic Senator and announced candidate for president Joe Biden said:

“You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin’ Donuts [in Delaware] unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.”

Michael then contrasts the near non-coverage of that moment with the Post coverage of the Virginia Senate Campaign:

“The contrast with constant coverage of former senator George Allen’s “macaca” incident is glaring. The absence of an aggressive opponent in a critical near-term election campaign may explain The Post’s non-coverage of Biden’s June remarks, but it hardly justifies this paper’s starkly disparate treatment of Allen.”

Indeed.

A Pox on Both Your Houses

Early morning coffee and a walk with Teddy the Wonder Dog sometimes clears up the thinking…and some brisk air considerations leads me to believe that we, the citizenry, are being ill-served in Richmond by our representatives.

 Oh, bills are being introduced, votes are taken, speeches are given, sometimes offering cause for humorous observations. But essentially, they are piddling.

Governor Kaine is unseen, not even attempting to push initiatives with any energy. Perhaps TMC suggestion that Kaine is irrelevant perhaps overstates the case. Nonetheless, Governor Kaine has been content to offer up an idea and let the GOP majority (with considerable democratic assistance) vote it down. He is hoping to make all these defeated measures campaign issues, and is a passive style of governance and politics that is consistent of his career to date.

Executive Branch-Strike One

Meanwhile, over in the legislature, one wishes sometimes that the equestrian statue of George Washington could work it’s magic. When I was a young ‘un and visited the General Assembly, my teacher told me the statue of Washington was looking at the legislature but pointing at the state penitentiary…and something needs to happen, because the way these guys and gals are doing things is a crime.

Nothing is getting done. The GOP has a transportation plan, but it is cobbled and jerry rigged. The Democrats do not have a plan, instead choosing to oppose the GOP plan and natter on about the need for a dedicated source of revenue without saying how they will do it. Somewhere in between, Chichester and company attempt to use their leverage to compel a wholly different course of action. Clearly, with such a huge budget surplus it is not unreasonable to look to an omnibus transportation plan that infuses transportation with some of that surplus while creating that dedicated source. Of course, that would require working together, doing things in tandem, and that is apparently unthinkable.

One would think that the legislature would want to accomplish something of note. Instead, they seem willing to sit back and hope that the legislative elections in November will give them enough votes to be able to legislate without having to work with the other side.

Phooey. Legislature-Strike two

Then there are the political parties. Neither party stands for anything of substance, only a desire to stay in or achieve majority status. In transportation, plans are either stop gap or non-existent. There is no vision…no effort to spell out a vision of where they want to lead the state. While this is understandable of the party in the minority, it is not commendable. When done by the party in the majority, it is nothing short of lamentable.

Our leaders should be about the people’s business…and instead it seems like a steady stream of gotcha moments.

Political Parties-Strike Three

Maybe the problem is that these people are not even willing to compromise when they should be negotiating. The difference? When you compromise, all parties come to the table with a position and agree to give up something, so everyone has to lose something. When you negotiate it is a different mindset. Everyone comes to the table with nada, so by the time you finish, and everyone leaves with something, everyone comes out ahead of where they started.

That last comment could trigger coughs from folks like James Atticus Bowden (who should be congratulated on the birth of his first grandchild!). He might suggest that principles should not be compromised or negotiated away…and he is correct. However, before one can act on principles one must have and demostrate principles…and todays legislature seems to be committed primarily to holding office and not in using principle to set policy.

Our political leadership is charged with representing the interests and ordering the affairs of a living, breathing entity comprised of over seven million people. From Wolf Trap to Big Stone Gap, from Nottaway to Nokesville, from White Stone to Winchester, the citizens of the Commonwealth of Virginia all want the same things…provide for their families, educate their children, improve their lives, and live their lives as free of government involvement as possible. These dreams are not dissimiliar from those of the colonists who landed in the Tidewater in 1607. The need is instinctive, the dream eternal.

The legislature should be making these dreams and ideas a reality and searching for ways to better the lives of their constituents. Instead, they are satisfied with trying to get the other guys on the record on arcane procedural votes that can be turned into campaign issues.

The governor is complicit, both legislative houses share the burden of non-movement, and both parties should be ashamed.

It is a said state for a state-or a commonwealth-to be in.

There…just in time…Teddy needs to go out again…

Bourdain strikes!

I’m a Foodie.

I like cooking.  I am not good at it, at least if it is done indoors…on the grill, I rock.  SWMBO is exactly the opposite, as was detailed here, so we make a good team.

 I recently discovered the blog http://blog.ruhlman.com writen by the author of The Soul of a Chef and The Making of a Chef, and today he has a guest post by Anthony Bourdain, former executive chef at Les Halles, author of Kitchen Confidential, inveterate seeker of interesting food, and one full of disdain for the Food Network.

Take a look at Bourdain’s latest rant about the Food Network.  He had me rolling until he went after Paul Deen.

I don’t care who you are, you are not allowed to mess with Paula.

Other than that…enjoy!

The Word of the Day Is: Hockey Stick Moment

The world of politics has a wonderful way of creating it’s own terminology or recreating existing language to illustrate a problem or condition.  Terms like “Big Mo”, “wedge issues”, “hanging chads”, “points of light”, “macaca”,and-of course- “chich-slapped” are  all terms that have come to the fore as a result of their use in the political arena.

Today I discovrered a new one: Hockey Stick Moment

Chuck Todd has grabbed this term from start up businesses and applied it to national candidacies. He describes the term as meaning:

The point in a graph where a company’s profits skyrocket from being comfortable but flat (like the face of the hockey stick) to a peak (like the handle of the hockey stick).

Todd also suggests that sometimes leaders do not realize they are having the HSM, and that sometimes it is a reverse HSM, and represents a precipitous decline. Todd further states:

The one thing all of these “hockey stick” candidates have in common is that they burst on the political scene out of nowhere to become either the establishment candidate of their party (e.g., Clinton, Bush and Carter) or a big scare for the establishment (e.g., Dean and McCain).

This piquant turn of phrase is not only quite descriptive but also quite appropriate this year. The nominating season used to be several months long, and candidates could use early caucus and primary victories to build credibility and build a constantly growing momentum, as well as pick up needed funding along the way. Now, everyone wants to be first…both parties think it is wrong that the comparatively small states of Iowa and NH have a disproportinate influence on who wins the nomination, and larger states are trying to schedule their primaries earlier.

This shrinking season means that candidacies must be announced earlier, more money must be raised faster and earlier to reach possible caucus delegates and primary voters, and one must score fast and big to have a hope of securing the nod…moreover, there is less time to recover from an error (or, as Howard Dean once screamed, “YYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!”)

The point? It means that at the least all the second tier candidates must have and capitalize on a Hockey Stick Moment, or else they will get rolled by the larger dollar candidacies. They need to have that moment that sets them aside as a likely winner, or else they will get rolled as a better known and better financed candidate develops momentum and reaches terminal velocity.

Terminal Velocity, btw, will be the lingo contribution