Another take on Convention v. Primary…

We all know that part of the decision behind the Tom Davis retirement is the selection of a convention over a primary to decide the Va GOP senate nominee for 2008.  But this was all well and good for many, who took great pains to talk about the benefit of conventions over primaries.

This is a point with which I disagree.  My experience is that the name ID generated by a primary and building of general election networks outweighs the campaign costs of a primary and also does not generate the intra-party anger that comes with a contested convention fight.

Today, I was reminded of another benefit.  Peter Beinart writes in today’s WaPo about the Democratic nominating fight, and what damage might be brought to each candidate.  He notes:

But when there’s no incumbent, a tough primary challenge doesn’t tell you anything about a candidate’s chances in November. Yes, nasty contests can leave the losers’ supporters embittered and less likely to turn out in the general election. (They can also expose vulnerabilities that are later exploited by the other side.) But heated primary battles also mobilize voters, some of whom stay mobilized even if their party nominates someone else. Many of the people who got involved in Democratic politics because of Howard Dean in 2004, for instance, worked to elect John Kerry in the fall.

I added the underline…

A pity the GOP will not have the benefit of a primary to mobilize voters for the fall election…which we would have enjoyed had a different road been chosen by the State Central Committee.

Is Hillary Done?

Recollections of football conversations with my father have led me to think that Hillary Clinton just might be done…as in cooked.

Whenever my father and I watch football games, there are a number of football announcers cliches tossed about in response to certain actions, including:

-”You got to catch those to play in this league” when a receiver drops a pass that hits him between the numbers.
-”Linemen have to fall on the ball” when a big, lumbering lineman unsuccessfully attempts to pickup a fumble and run with it.
-”You’d think they’d never scored before” after a too-energetic post touchdown celebration.
-”If I wanted a floor show, I’d go to Vegas” after an especially over the top post touchdown celebration.

But one regular comment was heard when a team had a narrow halftime lead despite the other team turning over the ball three or four times and went something like this:

That many turnovers, they should have put this away by now…now the other guys think they are bulletproof and are going to stage a comeback.

Typically, “the other guys” did, and typically won.

I suggest that Hillary is Clinton is much like those football teams who have all these advantages in the first half but don’t put the game away early.

Hillary Clinton came into this race with all the advantages one could want…name ID, bankroll, organization, energetic supporters.  She was a widely known quantity, and you would think that those who wanted to be with her would be with her from the start. Instead she is in a neck and neck race with Obama, winning pluralities in states choosing delegates (as opposed to beauty contests where no delegates are selected).

Yes, those were multi-candidate fields, but more on that later.

I don’t think the John Edwards withdrawal helps her. Edwards was preaching change, just not using the same hymnal as Obama. I suspect Edwards voters who were with him as a (lord, forgive me for saying this) an “agent of change” will be more than willing to move to Obama. For those who were with him because he was a white male, I have no idea where they go…but you would think again that if they were strong for Hillary they already would have lined up behind her.

If you look at the comments from Mudcat Saunders, an Edwards advisor, about Hillary then the likelihood of a switch to her becomes even more unlikely:

I can say this that, you know, being a southerner, being a rural American who’s been completely devastated by the trade policies of the Clintons, I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure that he does not endorse Hillary Clinton.

Mudcat continues…

Like I said, that when I’m traveling now up through north Georgia, passing towns and be going through South Carolina and turn over into the Appalachians and everything looks like, you know, Sherman went through it but didn’t burn thing, I think there is accountability involved there. For Hillary Clinton to continue to talk about the unintended consequences of NAFTA — they weren’t unintended, they were unconsidered. You know, we all heard about the giant sucking sound when they first started talking about this. I just don’t think the Clintons have been a friend of my people out in rural America.

I doubt Mudcat is alone in his thinking, which means there is no absolute unanimous desire to back Hillary C.

More than that, there is that old multi-candidate thing. I am sure if you ask her Senator Clinton will say she welcomes a chance to go head to head with Obama and discuss the issues of the day. The reality is that Edwards presence was the best thing going for Hillary. The Hillary troops were already with her from now to the last ditch and caucus, which means Edwards was drawing off from Obama. Keep Edwards in the race, and Hillary stands a real chance and multiple plurality wins on Tsunami Tuesday which could give her an unstoppable momentum heading to the Potamac Primaries a week later.

Now, she is head up with Obama…and we will see how that turns out.

This whole process reminds me of the dynamics of a multi candidate convention…typically there is a one candidate who everyone knows or should know. For instance, in the recent Va-1 GOP convention it was Chuck Davis.

The feeling is that said candidate is so well known that they will win early on or never because everyone knows them and will be supporting them early if they are going to support that candidate at all. Again, just like Chuck Davis…who led early but never cleared 50% and did not get the nomination.

I am beginning to think Mrs. Clinton has some of the same stuff going on. You know her, and if you love her you are already behind her. If not, it is unlikely she will get you on board.

That is why I think she better run the table on Tsunami Tuesday. If she doesn’t put it away, then the Obama goes into halftime still deep in the fight despite Clinton beginning the game with all the advantages…and the Senator from Illinois will be ready to come back in the second half and fully confident that he can do it.

Oh, and if Obama leads? Then the whole thing might be over…

Tom Davis Cash on Hand

Although Tom Davis has announced his retirement from the US House of Representatives, he still has over $300,000 in his campaign fund.

It will be interesting to see how that money is deployed…

Tom Davis Retires-RPV Central Commitee now Reaps the Whirlwind

Obscured by the today’s withdrawals by John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani from their respective presidential races is the announcement today that Tom Davis will not run for reelection in Virginia 11.

The WaPo reports that Davis said:

It’s time for me to take a sabbatical,” Davis said. “I would say I’m not ruling out future public service, but it’s time to be refreshed, to see what it’s like in the private sector. That doesn’t mean I will or won’t come back.”

The paper went on to offer reasons for the retirement:

Davis is steadfast in his belief that his own moderate politics, focused more on economic growth and less on divisive social issues, is the right direction for the state GOP. The steady lean toward Democratic candidates of his own district, which encompasses such Fairfax County communities as Vienna, Oakton and Annandale as well as a sliver of Prince William County, shows that hard-core conservatism doesn’t work anymore on statewide ballots, he said.

But RPV did not agree with him:

But Davis didn’t count on the vehemence with which the GOP’s conservative wing would resist his efforts to move the party to the middle. His opt-out of a Senate bid was spurred in part by an ugly battle within the Virginia Republican Party, which decided to hold a convention instead of a primary to choose its nominee. The decision favored former governor James S. Gilmore III, a more conservative candidate viewed as likelier to win over the party faithful who typically attend conventions.

Virginia 11 just became one of the marquee congressional races in the country…an open seat held by the GOP in an area strongly trending blue. Doug Denneny and LB3 have already announced for the Democratic nomination, and with Davis out of the way I expect Chairman Gerry will join the field. I have no idea who will be the GOP nominee, but I do know one thing-the RPV state central committee really screwed the pooch on this one.

Let’s count the ways:

1. Decided to have a primary to select presidential delegates AND a convention to select a senate nominee…doubling and duplicating the effort involved.
2. Chose a method of nominating a senate candidate that overrepresents ROVA vis-a-vis the state population, casting out one of the GOP most consistent vote getters in Northern Virginia.
3. And-this is just a guess-having gone with the method that will likely choose Jim Gilmore, a man who has not run in a general election for over ten years, to be the nominee for Senate, the RPV did not do all it could do to keep Davis running for re-election.

The RPV Central Committee has sown the wind-now it will reap the whirlwind.  Now they have to defend an open seat in Northern Virginia as well as running Captain Charisma against Governor “I didn’t want to raise taxes” in the Senate race.

Can Gilmore win in November? Yep. Can the GOP hold Va-11? Absolutely.

However, both jobs just became much more difficult…and I cannot help but think that this entire series of events could have been better handled.  Maybe many of the same decisions would be made, but I think the way it all came down will be terribly harmful to the Va GOP

Also lets disabuse ourselves of one notion right now. To repeat, in his statement Davis said:

“I would say I’m not ruling out future public service, but it’s time to be refreshed, to see what it’s like in the private sector. That doesn’t mean I will or won’t come back.”

Horsehockey…

First, it does mean he will or won’t come back…I mean, what other choices does he have?

Second, Tom Davis won’t be back. There are several potential candidates who may want a shot at Jim Webb in 2012. The same folks who didn’t want Davis to be the Senate nominee will do flips to keep him from running for Governor. If the democrats win Va-11 in the fall, the GOP will blame Davis for losing the seat and will not give him a new shot at the seat. If the GOP wins, then there is no opening for him to gun for.

This is an unfortunate decision for the state, for the Republican party, and-I think-for Mr. Davis. If he really is the political wonk he claims he is, he will regret this decision and want to reenter politics down the road-but by then it will be too late.

Monk HOF 2008-The Truly Important Upcoming Election

The banners have not come down from the Florida primary, and the nation looks toward Super Tuesday where those still standing battle it out next week.  My fellow bloggers are even now sharpening their keyboards to wax eloquent about the chances of their candidate of choice.

Let them.  The truly important election on my horizon comes on Saturday, Februrary 2, 2008.

The occasion?  The Football Hall of Fame voters gather at the Super Bowl to select the 2008 Class for induction in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.

The listis down to seventeen players, including three Washington Redskins, with Joe Jacoby missing the cut. The three ‘Skins remaining are Russ Grimm, Darrel Greene, and the oft and unjustly overlooked Art Monk.

It is my opinion that Art Monk indisputably should be in the HOF. It is a crime against logic and nature he is not already so honored. His numbers, his performance, the standard and the example he set say he should be in. Perhaps no one phrased it better than Hall of Fame Member Ronnie Lott, a man who went head up on Monk numerous times:

“There’s nothing negative to say. He has the numbers, the catches, the championships….You have a Hall of Fame for all it represents. I know he represents all that it’s about. Integrity, love and passion for the game, community, what he gave back. Look how he conducted himself. Nobody I know deserves it more.”

Many of the naysayers have come around. Peter King changed to the pro-Monk camp last year, and apparently Paul Zimmerman of SI is coming around.

I know the arguments against him…Monk wasn’t the first option, Monk only made three All-Pro teams, Monk doesn’t have signature plays. But the sports writers who trumpet these options not only conviently choose to forget that it was Art Monk who was selected for the NFL All-1980’s team, along with Rice, Largent, and Lofton. Each of the last three is in the HOF, and players who made more All-Pro teams are not.

It also surprises me that in a time when the league is cracking down on questionable conduct by its players, and sports writers around the country say it is long overdue…these same sportwriters will turn around and say when voting for the HOF off the field actions should not be considered. This hypocrisy leads Michael Irvin to be inducted while Monk stays in queue…only to see Irvin arrested on drug charges within a month of being selected.

One thing is for sure-if the voters are sincere about these objections, then Darrel Greene has to be a first round induction. Greene has the numbers, was the DB the opposition avoided, had the physical gifts, had the signature plays (running down Tony Dorsett in 1983, running down Eric Dickerson in a 1986 playoff game, his “hurdle” punt return against Chicago in the 1987 playoffs), and has the community standing. So, if all the objections against Monk to date were sincere, then you almost have to select Darrel this year.

Russ Grimm deserves to go, and I think it would be especially fitting after the way he was so badly treated by the Pittsburgh Steelers last year. The 1980’s ’skins are badly underrepresented, and I think inducting Monk and Greene at the same time is fitting and proper.

However, I have worries…and I have worries that go beyond the specious and rebutable arguments offered against Monk to date.

One concern is the lack of immediate conversation to date about the selection.  Normally by now King and Zimmerman have posted articles about the upcoming HOF selection, and given some idea as to how the winds were blowing.  Not so to date…and I have no idea what that means.

My other concern is that Dan Snyder has torpedoed the good ship Monk by virtue of his scavenger hunt for a new coach.  One thing that has been consistently lacking in the Snyder era is a sense of good feelings about the Redskins by the national media.  I think Monk has caught some of the brunt of that. 

I won’t rehash the past football season.  However, in the wake of the Redskins overcoming their difficulties and making the playoffs I thought there would be some diminution of that feeling, or at least that it wouldn’t be as overt.

Then Joe Gibbs stepped down, and Dan Snyder not only did not select Gibbs heir apparent Gregg Williams but he released Williams from his position as HC/Defense.  Snyder has gone on to interview everyone under the sun, reinforcing the reputation he had pre-Gibbs as a rich owner who was smart enough to make the money to buy the team but not smart enough to get out of the way and let the football people run the football team.

I worry that the Redskin nominees this year will be hurt by a Snyder backlash, but I hope and pray that this is the year that Art Monk makes the Hall.  It is an honor well deserved grossly overdue.

One last note-I believe Art Monks case for the HOF is so strong and convincing that only folks with axes to grind (like the Dallas rep who regularly talks down Monk) or some physiological inability to process the information of his credentials would vote against him. 

The same will be the case on replies for this post, where I will depart from my normal posting policy.  Don’t dare come around these parts talking trash about Monk and expect to get a comment posted.

Yep, I’m a homer. 

Go Art Monk, and good luck on Saturday!

Will Bill Clinton Become the New Harry Truman?

As we let the Florida political ads wash over us, we also watched the stories about Bill Clinton attacking Barack Obama, trying to use the right code words to get those so inclined to vote against Obama for being black, for being unable to win, or just because Obama ain’t Hillary.

Bill had that fierce look he gets when he has his back pushed to the wall, much like the deposition where he popped off with “I didn’t have sex with that woman”…all righteous indignation and pointing finger.

Clinton never had a problem with going blast furnace hard against those who opposed him, but I wonder if his attacks will turn him into the new Harry Truman.

No, I don’t mean the Harry Truman who drew the line in Korea and called the Turnip Congress into special session or who stood up to striking steel workers.

I mean the Harry Truman of 1956.

Harry Truman could have run again in 1952, but saw he could not win-and as a loyal democratic got out of the way after almost eight years in the White House.  Truman came out for Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois, a gifted orator who won the nomination (in great part due to the Truman activity) then was trounced by Ike Eisenhower in the general election.

Four years later Stevenson wanted another shot at Ike, and campaigned for the nomination-this time facing and defeating Estes Kefauver in critical primaries.  Problem is Harry had decided that Adlai was a little to smart for his own good and would get whacked again-so Harry started pushing for Averril Harriman, Governor of NY.  Harry even traveled to the Democratic convention to blast Stevenson and push Harriman.

It was all for naught.  Adlai won the nod, and threw the VP choice open for the delegates to make.  Harriman did not get the second spot.

Truman became the crotchety figure the press went to for a comment damning the GOP, but he was no longer considered a serious player in party politics or policy.

Bill Clinton has filled the role of former president very well, and I think he diminishes himself by being the attack dog.  There are other folks who should be doing that for Hillary C.  Bill should be on the high ground, arguing that Hillary is the real change candidate…not that she necessarily is, but that is what he should be doing.

Dick Morris has many Newsmax.com screeds against the Clintons.  His drumbeat against them is so so constant that his postings should be counted as some kind of in-kind contribution to Barack Obama…but he called this one a month ago. Bill Clinton in partisan posture always runs second to Bill Clinton taking the high road.

I have to agree with him on this one, and I have a hunch that by the time this campaign is over Bill Clinton’s partisan posturing will remove much of the luster from his post presidential prestige.

Bwana’s Political View from Florida…

We returned yesterday from “The Happiest Place in the World”, and came back with some new views and opinions…including a few on the political contest taking place today.

We were inundated with the Primary Air War.  Over the almost six days we were down there (from 1700 on 1.22.2008 to 1000 on 1.28.200 I saw 14 McCain ads, a dozen for Romney, and a half dozen each for Huckabee and for Giuliani.  Understand these were typically repetitions of the same spots.   McCain focused on defense, Romney on Administrative competence, Huckabee on the “Fair Tax”, and Rudy G on his record of 9/11 and his tax cuts as mayor of NOO YAWK CITY.

Before you dismiss that number, consider that we only saw the tube for about an hour in the AM before hitting the parks, and then another hour in the evening while the family cooled down before baths and bed…so to get that much during fairly limited viewing hours seemed like fairly heavy advertising.

The news we were getting just gives me the feel that McCain wins today.  Of course, I was the guy who said Tom Davis would run again, so I know how much cred I am carrying as a predictor.  I just have hunch that Romney is not going to do as well as he needs to do with the Rock Ribbed conservatives…I think they are going to look at his current positions, and see how much he has changed them recently, and decide they are better off with someone with whom they disagree on certain issues but know he is consistent in his views.

Huckabee needs the big panhandle conservative vote, but he is focusing on his “Fair Tax” plan…and I have seen nothing to suggest he is breaking out.

Rudy?  Well, I like Rudy.  I think he would be a good president and a cool hand in a crisis, but among the Kerik catastrophe and the stories of temper and petulance, and the marriages, and his failure to engage and contest prior to Florida-well, let’s just say my “Rudy 2008″ baseball cap is going to become a collectible a lot faster than I anticipated.

Vacation Notice…light post responding this week…

Come Tuesday Team Bwana will be heading South to visit the Mouse!

However, I am reminded of Phil Rodanakis, who last summer responded to a post and then, when I did not approve his comment quickly enough, sent a snarky reply with vague mentions of legal action.

SO…in order to avoid more Phil-type snark, please understand that for the next few days the articles that are coming down were pre-written before my departure…and I will address posted comments as time and computer availability develop-which may not be until my return from sunny climes down south.

And A Child Leads Them…in Richmond

The Book of Isaiah speaks of millennial peace when it tells us that “A Child Shall Lead Them”…apparently the same can be said for increased perks after misleading campaign ads.

Ben Tribbett gives the full bloody details here, and was reportedby the WaPo.  At base, Democratic House Leader Ward Armstrong wants Speaker Bill Howell to increase the per diem for house members…after attacking GOP members during the 2007 legislative elections for accepting an increased per diem by claiming it was a pay raise.

Now, having attacked the GOP for a per diem increase, Delegate Armstrong wants the same per diem increase the Senate approved.

It should be noted that in the senate campaigns there was no attack regarding the per diem:

Saslaw said he doesn’t blame House Republicans for resisting calls to raise the allowance this year. Saslaw said that Senate Democrats, who picked up the four seats in the election needed to regain the majority, steered clear of using pay raises as an issue because they thought it was an unfair charge to make against GOP incumbents…”They cut off their own noses,” Saslaw said, referring to House Democrats.

Armstrong, presenting a pose of princely petulance, said:

“Every one of us has our own take on what is fair,” Armstrong said. “I don’t know how much longer we have to talk about a campaign that was over in November. This is the ‘08 session.”

Ah, leadership…or what passes for it in the democratic caucus. Have they never heard the wisdom of Shakespeare? If you strike the King, you must kill him

Did Armstrong really think the Democrats could attack the GOP on an administrative matter like per diems and have the GOP rush like sheep to the slaughter to approve another increase? Did he really think he would not be held responsible?

I had a similar experience at home recently. Number one son did something he was not supposed to Wednesday a week ago. His punishment kicked in the next day. He thought it was unfair that he was being punished on Thursday for something he did on Wednesday.

Apparently Delegate Armstrong thinks the same thing…he must think his punishment for an unfair attack was that it didn’t work, and that everyone would forget.

Heh…with leadership like this the GOP should rest easy.

Cooch Denounces Bwana as a Liberal

In the latest “Cuccinelli Compass” Cooch attacks the liberal media for their “tirade” over his “No Ablo Anglais” bill:

It only took a week for the liberal media to come charging after me for one of my bills – SB 339. SB 339 would change the law to make it employee “misconduct” for an employee not to speak adequate English to do their job, in violation of a policy of the employer. If an employee is fired for “misconduct,” then the employer is not liable for unemployment benefits.

He then gets to the heart of the matter…

So, SB 339 would make the failure to speak or learn adequate English “misconduct” if an employer required English proficiency as part of the job.

Then, his final defense…

This is common sense, but the liberals are wigging out. Maybe that’s a sign of just how good a bill this is…

Apparently the mere fact you think this is a bad bill makes a person a “liberal”.  I have been called many things, but never a liberal.  This will certainly come as news to the commenter at RK who called me a “mouth breather” because I an a Republican

Actually, liberals “wigging out” really has little to do with this bill.  And what this bill does, besides create an overly protective cushion for employers who make bad hiring decisions, is point out the drift of the GOP.

This bill seeks to protect business’s who made a bad call in hiring.  The business, or a representative of the owners, met with, interveiewed, and decided person “X” could do the job.  If  you hire a person to do a job and that person lacks the fundamental skills at hiring to do the job…that’s a two way street.  The Company decided to hire, and now Cooch wants to give them an out to dodge responsibility.

This is the type of fine tuned interventionist bill the demos used to be famous for.  If you want to let the free market work and let each earn according to their abilities-you know, Adam Smith stuff-then you let them take the hit for errors made.

But today’s GOP is too often concerned with amassing power and assuaging their sponsors (but not their constituents), even if the resulting laws are bad.

This bill is representative of so much that has gone wrong with the GOP…no conscience in proposing, no solid philosophy for proposing it , and no soul in standing by it.

Oh, but there I go talking like a “liberal” again.