…but Kaine has Little Hope for VP

The other day I suggested that Tim Kaine has to get the VP nod to keep his political career on track.  Lack of a strong record and a lack of viable electoral options-both state and federal-vastly limit his options.

There are those who think TheGov hangs the moon.  Comments the other day ranged from “I love Tim” to “shoot the messenger” to pure ad you h attacks. However, I think the facts lean against Brother Tim.

A VP candidate is selected to balance the ticket and/or not to be a drag. VP-nominees have met varied criteria, including:

A) Pull in a critical state or region (LBJ in 1960), OR
B) Experience to cover a lack of federal or international experience (Mondale 1976, Gore 1992, Cheney 2000), OR
C) Ideological balance that makes a party faction happy (Dole 1976, Bush 1980), OR
D) A candidate that does not bring anything to the ticket except they don’t detract from the nominee (Agnew 196
E) A surprise selection to rock the boat and hopefully change the election landscape (Ferraro 1984)
F) Solely to tick off the opposition presidential nominee (Miller 1964)
G) A combination (Bentsen 1988-federal experience and geography)

I don’t see where a Kaine selection is the best choice in this regard to elect Obama:

A) Pull in a critical state or region: Kaine has not emerged as a regional leader either in the Mid-Atlantic or in the South. Many believe he will  ensure Obama carries Virginia; I am not convinced that is true, and second if the only state Obama flips from 2004 is Virginia then he still loses. Kaine does not clearly offer the tools to pull other states.  If he is looking for a Virginia Democrat who more surely does this, then I think the name is Webb, not Kaine.
B) Experience to cover a lack of federal or international experience: Does not fill the bill…and Webb pops up again.
C) Ideological balance that makes a party faction happy: Kaine has managed to create a record that is not clearly identified with the liberals, the conservatives, or the progressives…not to mention the netroots. Does nto fill the bill.
D) A candidate that does not bring anything to the ticket except they don’t detract from the nominee: OK, Maybe
E) A surprise selection to rock the boat and hopefully change the election landscape: Does not apply.
F) Solely to tick off the opposition presidential nominee: Does not fill the bill
G) A combination: OK, maybe…geography AND does not rock the boat…maybe.

Then there is that little matter that the Lt.Gov is GOP, and that Kaine’s elevation to VP flips the Virginia governor mansion.  Does Obama want or need Kaine on the ticket so badly as to allow that to happen?

My prediction:

1. Kaine does not get the VP slot, nor does the get a 2008 cabinet slot.  He does not inspire across the board, he does not clearly fit one of the above categories, and Obama will not want to hand the Virginia governor’s mansion to the GOP.

2. Kaine gets DNC Chairman, not unlike Gilmore got the RNC position after the 2000 elections.  Then, if the Dems hold the Virginia governorship in 2009, Kaine goes on the short list to fill a cabinet position as opening occur.

There is lots of time between now and the convention, but right now an objective reading of the tea leaves are not looking good for Tim Kaine getting on the Obama train in 2008.

Whose Ox is Gored?

The folks down I-95 at Fred2Blue are complaining about how “gerrymandered” Virginia is.

Gerrymandering is an age old tradition. In fact, as I noted some time back the first partisan apportionment happened right here in Virginia. It is a practice as the “spoils system” as propounded by Andrew Jackson, and when a party is swept to power they hack at the other guys districts with gusto, and expect and accept the same in return.

I think we need non-partisan apportionment, and I think mid-decade apportionments should be done away with.. Until that happens, we have to make do with what we have.

But I confess to more than a bit of cynicism on this point…in fact, this report smells just a tad of Claude Rains in “Capablanca” professing to be shocked gambling is going on in Rick’s American Cafe…and then accepts his gambling winnings from the croupier.

I would be more impressed by this report and indignation if:

**The supporting report had not come out of the DLC, a Democratic support group;
**The report were not full of “might” and “if” and “perhaps” type wiggle words estimating how many more voters would vote if different redistricting methods were used.
**Tucked away in a note on page 16 the paper itself said “placement on this list should not be confused with a ranking of which states maintain systems most prone to creating non-competitive districts”…so that fourth worst stat Fred2Blue throws around about Virginia may not be all it is cracked up to be.
**I didn’t recall how in 1990 the Virginia Democracy redistricted the House so that 14 GOP incumbents were redistricted into seven house districts, and completely reshaped the old Virginia 7 to knock out a GOP incumbent.
**I didn’t recall how the Senate Democratic leadership shot down legislation in the 2008 session that would create bi- or non- partisan redistricting…presumably because they want to guarantee themselves a big chair at the table in 2010.

This is a game that has been going on for over two hundred years, and it isn’t going away any time soon…and if the DLC thinks it is a problem, then maybe they should get get guys like Dick Saslaw to send up legislation that would change the way things are done.

Kaine Must Hope for VP…

Tim Kaine has spent many weeks out of state ignoring his elected responsibilities and instead campaigning for Barack Obama…that is because if he wants his political career to continue, he has to get the VP nod.

Kaine is racking up an unenviable record as governor.  He seems to have no real strength in his party, no real pull with the legislature, and has neither the longstanding popular support of Mark Warner or even the bubble popularity once held by Jim Gilmore.  TheGov does not have a record that would get him an automatic reelection…which leads to some interesting speculation on his future plans.

Think of it…once he leaves office, what happens?  One senate seat is held by Jim Webb…and even if Webb were tabbed by Obama and then became VP, Kaine would have to appoint a successor, and the special election for the balance of the term would not be until 2010…and no matter what the tea leaves say for 2008, the other senate seat is not up until 2014…and it may be held by a Democrat. I doubt he could get another nod to run for governor, and the Richmond area is represented in great part by two popular incumbents (Scott and Cantor), so there is no electoral op there.

That leaves appointed office. My pals at TC speculate would Kaine take an appointed slot and raise Bill Bolling to governor, allow him to run as an incumbent, and give the GOP a big leg up in the 2009 elections? He might, but it would have to be for VP. If the nominee of the party comes to you and says please help me lead the country, I bet he would be forgiven for accepting the nod. But a cabinet position? I bet just as much the other way, that if he leaves office for the cabinet he will not be forgiven for giving up the governor’s mansion.

So, with no real opportunities or options for higher elected office on his own, all that is left is an appointed position. It has to be the VP slot…he will be forgiven for accepting that. But if he leaves the governorship for the cabinet, that will burn his bridges for elected office for a lonnnnnnggggggg time.

So it is the national ticket, or a long lucrative legal career with a big name law firm.

You heard it here first.

Bwana’s Birthday…

As of today, RR has been up and running for three years.  What started as a little exercise in writing practice has seen time spent in Blogger and now WordPress, has extended past 533 posts and endured 62,544 spam hits (and that is only since moving to WordPress).

Who’d a thunk it? Well, it would seem a little birthday music is in order…

Here’s to all you folks who are willing put your ideas out on the web and to stand up for your cause…agree or not, the robust exchange of ideas benefits because you stay in the field.  Blogging as part of political participation on the internet continues to make a difference as a way to exchange ideas, build coalitions, impact campaigns,

And to all those who have come and gone…Chad Dotson, Will Vehrs, Conaway B. Haskins III, the Richmond War Room, Chris Chandler, Mrs. Calabash, and others-good night, good night, wherever you are!  Your contributions to the Virginia blogosphere are not forgotten, and your presence and contribution are missed.

But I will tell you, if I could have a real blogging birthday present, it would be for this imagined event to really take place.

Take care and prepare yourself for Fall 2008-it is going to be a bumpy ride!

Sometimes All We Need…

…is some time in the pool to make life a little more rosy, not to mention wet.

 

 

That is WMD#3, looking up at WMD #1 and #2 get ready to jump in the pool, while SWMBO makes like Margaret Bourke White and snaps the photo.

Illegal Immigration Problems in Loudoun

This report on illegal immigration problems in Loudon County is a must read.

I have been pretty much on the periphery of the illegal alien issue, but have been taken time and again by folks like WaPo columnist Marc Fisher who try to compare today’s situation with that faced by their grandparents.

Time and again folks like Mr. Fisher fail to draw a distinction between their forbears who came to this country, tried to learn the language, follow the rules and laws, paid their taxes, and embraced the melting pot…and those in Loudoun who don’t learn the language, evade and break the rules and laws, skirt paying taxes, and reject both the melting pot and the mosaic concept.

Be sure to read the link above about Loudoun County…borderline shocking.

Why They Run Scared…

Something happened the other day that underscores the silliness of some of the Judy Feder campaign lingo, and also shows just how some really silly stuff is said to raise money.

The Feder campaign has through various means maintained that Congressman Frank Wolf is “running scared”…because refusing to take an opponent for granted is a bad thing. Of course, were he not “running scared” he would be taken to task for being overconfident.

Now Ms. Feder is not the only person who does this.  This tact is a tabiya of politics. The same thing goes on in most any district where a challenger needs to brighten up a boring day and attack the opponent…if they are running scared, they are in danger of losing, but if they are not running scared, they are overconfident. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t-pick your poison.

I believe any candidate worth a dang runs scared. If the office and the opportunity means anything to them, they run scared.  If they are serious about public service, they run scared.

Why? Because if you don’t, things like this happen.

I guess there are other by products of running scared-like drawing over 90% in a party primary and firing up your people…or you could choose to not run scared, and score a much lower percentage.

But who would do a thing like that?

Tim Kaine: Still just an Old School Marm…with Ambition

In the midst of the the 2007 Virginia General Assembly session I blogged about our Governor, Tim Kaine, and his transportation failures. I suggested that while he tried to portray himself as a fearless samurai, he was really something else:

But the GOP [offered a plan], and the Democrats did not. Now Governor Kaine [unhappy with the plan] is running around like an old time school marm who gives an assignment, gives the students freedom to complete the assignment as they see fit, and then pitches a hissy fit when things are not done as she envisioned it being done…At a time when we need leadership, we instead get an old school marm…bitter that she is not more appreciated, tolerated only because of the office held, and never to be remembered fondly or respectfully.

Here we are now sixteen months later, and nothing has changed…except Kaine has dug himself an even deeper hole.

The legislature is in special session to discuss transportation funding. By all accounts, there are multiple parties involved-there is the House of Delegates, a couple of different factions in the state Senate, and then there is TheGov, who apparently is having trouble getting his own plans introduced.

While the GOP want a variation of the 2007 plan, and Dick “I Do It My Way” Saslaw has his own plan to introduce focusing on increases in the gas tax, titling fees, etc., Governor Kaine just wants a billion dollar tax increase. While it is a bit much to say he has been abandoned by his allies, clearly there is a stench about TheGov caused by his interference in the Va-11 primary, his willingness to intervene in capital murder cases, and his regressive tax schemes.

Unfortunately, while the public wants improvements the two parties, and our leadership deficient governor, do not get the picture.

Many times I have written that no plan will go through until the state shows that everything has been done to wring all possible value from the funds currently being spent on transportation. Nothing special, some Ross Perot charts should do the trick. Instead, the new plans-and especially the governor’s plan-draws comments like this:

I don’t suppport any tax increases until I see that they are using what they have efficiently. I see 4 state trucks and 10 workers at a work site and one person (if that) working. I see good roads repaved and bad roads ignored. They take two weeks to do a two day job. A major overhaul of VDOT needs to be done before they get another dime.

No one is going to jump up for new taxes until they are convinced the most bang is beign gotten for the current buck.

But it may be that Governor Kaine doesn’t want a solution. Some have suggested that he is more interested in scoring political points and putting the GOP behind the electoral eight ball than in making progress.

That may be…but if he is really thinking that, he forgets two things:

1. Come the next state election, folks are going to remember that the Democrats held the governor’s mansion and one house of the legislature and couldn’t agree on a plan…as opposed to their previous strategy of not offering a plan and watching the GOP implode. This proposition is not likely to be as politically strong for Kaine; and
2. His not-so-vague longings for a place in the Obama administration are hurt with every misstep he takes. Obama has to be aware that Kaine became governor less on his own merits than on the strengths and failures of others. Couple that with a feckless and ineffectual term as governor, no matter how personally likeable you might be, and suddenly Kaine needs a win to stay in the spotlight; and
3. There is that little matter of a GOP Lt. Governor who will become governor of Virginia if Kaine gets an admin sinecure. Is TheGov’s presence such an overwhelming presence that Obama would turn over the Virginia governor’s mansion to the other party just to bring “Timmy!” on board?

All in all, I doubt it…

Bottom line, things have not changed since February 2007. Kaine is still the old school marm I described in Februrary 2007, only now he has ambition. Unfortunately, that ambition ain’t getting him anywhere.

The ironic part of this is that the advice he needs has been sitting there, waiting to be absorbed, and it is in an essay about his father-in-law.

The Governor’s of Virginia 1860-1978 is a book published in 1982 and offers short bios on the Virginia governors elected or selected from 1860-1973, concluding with Mills Godwin’s second term. Included is an essay by J. Harvie Wilkinson on Governor Lynwood Holton. Wilkinson summarizes Holton’s career-an administrative triumph and a political disaster-by saying that in to move on in politics it is not enough simply to govern well, one must also mind the store politically.

Holton did not do this, and his aspirations to be tapped as VP in 1972 and then to get the GOP Senate nod in 1978 all came to naught. It was another variation on what my father has said about politics being about how well you do two things…”Gettin’ it and doin’ it”.

Apparently TheGov has not learned from the example of his father-in-law…and if he continues on this path he will find his place in history along with those cold, gray men who achieved high office through the efforts of others, and was unable to make things happen for themselves in either the statute books or at the ballot box.

Byrniacs, Federistas, and the Spin Zone in Va-10

Now that the dust has settled from June 10 primaries, a variety of comments in posts on NLS and RK make it look like many supporters of Leslie Byrne are casting about for a new candidate to give their heart to…and that someone may be Judy Feder in Va-10. Of course, this is likely to be an out of district no feet on ground kind of support…but that makes it on a par with much of the support she currently sees.

Ms. Feder has developed a devoted following who simply could not understand why she lost in 2006 and just know she will win in 2008. The Federistas, whether on staff or volunteers, are so convinced of her certain success that they are offering up spin that often defies credulity on any number of issues .

For instance, Leesburg Tomorrow claimed that Ms. Feder warchest had “exceeded $1 million”. Maybe I am reading the campaign finance reports wrong, but as I read it at last report Ms. Feder had just under $700K in her treasury-not small potatoes, but far less than LT claims. It is true that to date on that report Ms. Feder had raised over a million dollars, but she also has spent almost 500K. To suggest that she currently has $1 mil in her warchest is about the same as calling a middle aged factory worker a millionaire because over his entire life in the factory he has received $ 1 mil in salary, health benefits, part time jobs, etc.

Of course, Ms. Feder’s fundraising is another point of interest. As noted at TC, Ms. Feder’s first major fundraiser after winning the 2008 nomination was held in…Maryland. The term tone deaf comes to mind, but one cannot be surprised because it is typical. I don’t diminish the effectiveness of her fundraising. A greenback, one dollar american, is of the same buying value whether it comes from Health Care academic in California, Democratic lobby/pressure groups, special interest groups who don’t like her opponent, or corporation who have faced class action suits from the Commonwealth of Virginia, or a resident of Virginia. This is a good thing, because when you go through the records and look at where Ms. Feder’s money comes from, she is getting money-and sometimes a lot of it-from all the groups above…except Virginia residents in general or Va-10 residents in particular.

The Federistas are fired up that she has been “recognized” as an “emerging” candidate by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. That can hardly be a bad thing, but this is exactly where she was in October 2006. Is it unreasonable to think that with all her fundraising, alleged increased name ID and such, that she should be moving up on the DCCC ladder? What is perhaps more telling is that while trumpeting the trumpeting the reports from partisan groups like the DCCC, the Federistas ignore non-partisan sources like Congressional Quarterly, which has a slightly different assessment of the race.

The recent primary, which objectively raises some questions, is treated like a watershed event.  Ms. Feder defeated Mike Turner with almost 62% of the vote.  First, move beyond the fact that the Democratic primary turnout was less than half that of the GOP event, or that Congressman’s Wolf’s total vote was almost double the entire Democratic turnout…which raises a whole ‘nother set of questions.

What should be raising eyebrows is that 62%.  In a discussion at RK on Va-8 it was agreed that if an incumbent congressman was opposed by anyone, even a protest candidate, the mark that needed to be achieved was 80%.  While it may be higher, the logic was that at any given time an elected official is going to have some number of folks upset with them, but as long as it was not more then 20% they were OK.  This level has been the measuring stick going back generations.

Ms. Feder, the 2006 candidate, possessor of a large warchest, effectively the incumbent Democractic candidate, who has been in the field campaigning for two years, barely cleared 60% against someone not well known and not well funded.  Some suggest her victory was a strong one. I think the 80% standard applies to her, and I think the fact that she did not clear it indicates problems…as well as the fact that she was unable to win Loudoun County.  If she cannot take Loudoun County from a little known opponent, is it reasonable to think she is going to take it from an opponent who defeated her there in 2006?

Ms. Feder faces another disadvantage in 2008 she did not shoulder in 2006, and one there has been little mention of…this time around the Democrats control both houses of Congress. She will not be able to blame Mr. Wolf this year for the inadequacies of Congress as she attempted to do in 2006. If she wants to complain about Congress failing to get something done, it can all be dismissed as the failure of the majority party to act.

Is this race over? Not hardly. The folks at TC who are talking 65% are off base.  2008 will be a rough year for the GOP, and the bookies are undecided if the Obama enthusiasm of the spring will engender huge turnout from previously disinterested voters in the fall, and how they will vote. Add in the Gilmore drag…well, you get the picture. This thing is hard from over.

But if the Byrniacs are looking for another candidate to emotionally support, the Federistas will welcome them with open arms and wildly spinning explanations that show how everything that happens is a good thing for their candidate. We will just have to wait and see how that spinning works out for them.

George Carlin-A Lover of Language

What can be said when your childhood icons pass?  That thought came to mind on the way into work when I heard on the electric radio that George Carlin is dead.

I remember watching the first episode of “Saturday Night Live”, and the host of that premiere episode was George Carlin.  He was funny, he was sharp, he was on the cutting edge of what is now called observational humor.

What really caught the ear was his instinct for language.  Who can forget the “Seven Words”?

But Carlin was more than that. 

He is one of the few comedians who completely reworks himself in the middle of a successful career to become a different kind of comic.  Carlin began as your basic tell a joke kind of guy…the inheritor of Borscht Belt comedians.  But as detailed in Comedy at the Edge, during the late 1960’s he realized his true instincts were not with his generation but of that generation that was slighly younger and wanting to change society…you know, the Baby Boomers.  So Carlin restructured himself and became the observational comedian that we came to know.

An interesting aspect of the changeover was the way he found a unique comic voice that mixed the Borscht Belt joke technique with observational humor. Jokes have to be old a certain way to work…say something out of order, out of sequence, or use the wrong word, and impact is lost and the bit ruined. Observational humor is a bit different. A comedian can talk about a situation six different times to six different audiences and still be funny because they are drawing on a generally shared sense of something to get their laughs. Example-no matter how you lead up to it, a guy stands up to give a speech with his fly down…well, that circumstance is going to be funny almost any way you approach it.

Carlin took a middle path…he took that thing we were all aware of, pursued it from a different angle-like an observational comedian-but used specific language to make the routine sing-like the old style joke teller. Watch the Baseball/Football routine below, especially the conclusion, and think how precise the language has to be to get the best reaction.

Another way he was different is that Carlin never sought to be anything beyond a comedian. He never became a stadium concert stud ( as did Steve Martin) or tv star (Jerry Seinfeld) or movie star (Eddie Murphy).  He was a comedian who loved language and analyzing how folks did things.  Be it absurd, funny, or outrageous, he talked about us and how we did things.

Sometimes the language use is not purely analytical, but just fun… 

George Carlin-you will be missed…and in honor of his memory, I will relate a true story about my father, his love for language, and a word that got struck from the 7 words list…and more or less in Dad’s words.

“I was serving in Europe during the War.  It was Februrary of 1945, I was walking across the med camp I  was based at (imagine a 500 bed MASH unit), and a buzz bomb hit the camp.  The concussion blew me ass over teakettle about forty feet backwards, not unlike the ways bodies always went flying during those A-team explosions on television.

I struggeld to my feet and I found myself next to a supply truck.  Cawling out from underneathy of it was an African-American driver who apparently dove underneath his truck at the first yell of “incoming”.

He looked at me and said “Damn!  Those Motherf**king Motherf**kers done Motherf**ked us!”

 My father then looked at me and said, “Isn’t that amazing?  He used the same word three times in one sentence, and it was a different part of speech each time!”

I can easily imagine George Carlin telling that story, but I imagine he would have omitted the asterisks…and he may have added the word back to his list if only for its versatility.

George Carlin, R.I.P.  You will be missed.

UPDATE:

Other Links relating to Brother Carlin:

**Remembering George Carlin
**My Hero has Passed
**Goodbye, Rufus
w/, I am sure, more to come…