Myrtle Beach, Tim Kaine, and Contrarian Thinking

Team Bwana, having feverishly rushed through school supply purchase, is at Myrtle Beach testing the truth of the observation “a bad day at the beach beats a good day at work.”

The observation…is true.

Now that the boomerang weather phenomenom known as Tropical Storm/Hurricane Faye will likely not rip through the Grand Strand-thus guaranteeing SWMBO and the WMD much more beach time-I have had some time to ruminate on the possibility of Tim Kaine for VP.

While I don’t think it will happen, I am starting to see not only how it might happen but how it is not a good thing for the Va GOP.

Call this the contrarian school of thought.

First, as I have noted previously, Tim Kaine has gotten to where he is through a marvelous run of luck…and as any card player knows, when the cards are running your way you have to play big.  Next, Kaine and Obama just seem to mesh.  They seem to be sympatico in a way that has not been present between Pres and VP in, well…maybe ever.  Third, Kaine does not bring a large school of detractors.  The national electorate will likely give little focus to the lack of leadership that Kaine has provided as governor, and Kaine may well be the one person that can be added to the ticket without detracting somehow from Obama.

If he is tabbed, and Obama wins, then Bill Bowling becomes governor.  I suspect that Kaine will resign as governor as soon as possible.  Why?  To give Bowling as much time as possible not only to be governor but to become identified with whatever problems face the electorate in the 2009 elections. 

I have to wonder come 2009 will folks readily remember that the democrats held the governor’s mansion from 2002-2008?  Will the lack of leadership or memorable legislation beyond the Warner tax increase of 2005 be recalled?  Will voteres recollect how time and again refused to lead on transportation and other issues, instead hoping the GOP would implode in the General Assembly and allow the democrats to win at the ballot box…

…OR…

Will voters go to the ballot box, be aware of the problems, and see that a Republican is in the governor’s mansion?

Call me crazy, but sand, surf, cool breezes, and a Corona or two does cause one to reconsider the contrarian view of life.

I just have to wonder…

Well, the tide is heading out and “Summertime is calling me” for another “Myrtle Beach Day”.

And when I have a chili dog at the OD Pavillion…I will be thinking of you in the blogosphere!

Netroots Rising-The Book Review

Today I offer part one of my Netroots Rising review and analysis.  Part one will be a book review, and part two will use the book as a starting point to take a look at what blogs are doing, can be doing, should be doing, etc., in this campaign season.

Netroots Rising is the recent book by Lowell Feld and Nate Wilcox detailing the rise of the “progressive blogosphere”-what they call the netroots.  It is a book that reads well as history, as a political manifesto, and as a notice that a new way of doing business in American politics could be just over the
horizon. 

If you walk away from this book with one thing-let it be this.  Lowell and Nate regularly-and accurately- pound the fact that blogging and Internet access have given access to multitudes of people who did not have it before.  Want to make your opinion known?  Start a website, blog, facebook account, etc., and let your political flag fly.  Maybe you get noticed, maybe you don’t, but you can make an impact via techniques and technology that did not exist or were not recognized as recently as five years ago.

However, I came away feeling like an opportunity was missed to analyze why netroot participation seemed to serve as a participation multiplier, as well as a chance to offer a wide view of the political blogosphere. 

Lowell and Nate do a marvelous job of recounting how the internet was used by democrats to overcome GOP edges in technology.  Circa 2003 the GOP enjoyed a technology edge as seen (a) in fundraising via extensive databases and direct mail efforts; (b) talk radio; and (c) a better internet presence.

A variety of democratic activitists, frustrated with the moderate Clinton “triangulation” method of campaigning began to take to the internet via blogs, email, websites, etc., to allow them to directly connect with others having the same desire to participate and make an impact while circumventing what they saw as a calcified party process.

It was not easy at first, and initial efforts in Texas fighting Tom DeLay’s inexcusable redistricting efforts, drafting Wes Clark, supporting Howard Dean and then promoting John Kerry were not as successful as hoped for.  But these efforts laid the foundation for more successful netroot impact in the Virginia gubernatorial elections in 2005 and US Senate elections in Virginia and Montana in 2006. 

The step by step description of the Virginia campaigns in 2005 and 2006 is especially interesting, but perhaps because I lived through both as an interested observer it does not have the novel like quality of pace that others have attributed to the book.

A continuing thread is that of cooperation and conflict between the netroots and the more traditional Democratic Party structure.  This is not a new theme in american politics, but typically the insurgent side finds itself using the same tools as the establishment and is consequently outgunned.  The new tools employed by the netroots means an intra-party conflict where each side is potentially using not only different weapons (email v. tv advertising) but weapons that might be embraced by one demographic (i.e. younger voters) and ignored by another (i.e. older voters).

The new fight as described in the book takes on an old fight in a new light. Using the examples of Malcom Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, a political fight often means going after the people who will then turn around and persuade others. In the old days, it was done with patronage and perquisite-an external set of values that is addressed one at a time. The internet means that like can find like faster and in larger numbers.

The book concludes with an analysis of the future of the netroots, and asks “will the netroots continue to rise?”  Lowell and Nate suggest that the netroots will not only continue to impact campaigns, but they will also impact collateral areas of campaigns including advertising.  They examine the possibility of the netroots taking on an establishment hue of its own, or fragmenting into more focused areas of interest.  They also offer a final riff on the establishment v. insurgent that laces the book.

As history, manifesto, and a first swipe analysis of a current wave of participation-and one that is not likely to go away soon-this is an excellent book.

By the same token, there were a few things I would have enjoyed seeing. Some are substantive, some are stylistic, and others may have been eliminated due to cost or other pre publication issues, but here they are…

The authors sometimes spin the impact of the netroots effort to the point of overstatement.  For example, they suggest that George Allen’s “Macaca” moment was a “forced error” because had the netroots not gotten Webb into the race, Allen would not have been in The Breaks but instead campaigning elsewhere seeking the GOP nomination for president in 2008. 

I don’t understand their logic.  First, he would have been opposed in the Virginia Senate race-Webb did have to win a primary to get the nomination-so he would have been campaigning in Virginia anyway.  Second, Allen came up with this gaffe on his own.  He was not forced into it.  His own sense of ego caused him to insult Mr. Siddarth, and his sense of hubris prevented him from trying to recover from what he had done. These are hardly forced errors.

The netroots “score” was not in forcing the error, or even in creating the atmosphere to create an unforced error.  What the netroots did was to make the blunder widely known exceptionally fast-something that would not have happened had the Webb campaign followed their own counsel…and in doing so created the atmosphere where more errors-forced and unforced-were made.

The authors made a stylistic decision that frankly drove me crazy.  When discussing the Kaine and Webb campaigns, Lowell Feld is regularly refered to in the third person, typically as “Feld”.  I imagine this was because the book had two authors, and using they feared using “I” as opposed to proper names would cause confusion.  While I understand the decision, when I see “Feld” used more than a dozen times over two or three pages…well, it doesn’t add to the flow of the writing.

By the same token, the authors face the same problem that Frank Atkinson did when he wrote “Virginia in the Vanguard”.  Frank was a player in many of the events described, and perhaps as a result did not include  various interviews and personal details of the type used in “The Dynamic Dominion”…there is a great difference between writing as an observor than as a participant.

I also wish the authors left more of a personal fingerprint on the book.  I could find no pictures of them in the book.  The third person treatment is used on their bios at the beginning of the book, and while old “Kos” signs his foreword in the style of a published book, the authors do not do the same with the acknowledgements. They don’t offer details of meetings or encounters or people that could make the stories come alive. 

The netroots are people, and instead of the brief bios offered on pages xxi-xxiii in the intro, spread their stories throughout the book…and not just what they did, but the little details of life that would make them come alive.  It is a pity that the various interviews on the netroots rising web page were not included in the book in toto or in block quotes as sort of an oral history.  This book is in part a story of passionate people finding a cause, but I found primarily facts and little fire in the writing.

There were analytical opportunities missed that would have more fully illustrated the theme.  I think the book would benefit from a fuller discussion of the differences between the Democratic blogosphere and the GOP blogosphere.  A comparison like this would go far to illustrate why the the netroots have prospered vis-a-vis the opposition.

I also think an opportunity was missed to use the George Allen campaign to more fully illustrate the changes in mindset among traditional politics, the netroots, and Virginia demographics.

On page 142 of Netroots Rising: 

“One undercurrent about George Allen that had never been fully explored despite Allen’s tenure as Virginia Governor and US Senator was his questionable past with regard to racial issues.”

Lowell and Nate go on to note the media had not dug into the issue in previous elections…but apparently neither had the Democrats.  Allen had been through two state wide elections, not to mention some fierce legislative confrontations, and this was never made an issue. 

Why? 

Did the media not see it as an issue?  Were Mary Sue Terry and Chuck Robb somehow unaware of the decor of his law offices?  Did the makeup of the Virgina electorate change so much between 1993 and 2006 that what were once acceptable affectations are now character flaws?  Were questions not asked because the focus was more on “racial attitude” and less on “racial issues”?  A fuller discussion would help reveal fault line differences between the establishment and the netroots.

I say all this knowing that the style and analysis concerns, for instance, may be things that were whacked by editors or that were felt to be outside the realm of the book…but you know the drill-my blog, so I get to ramble.

The bottom line?  If you want to stay on top of Virginia politics, you need this book.  Likewise if you are interested in politics in general, use of technology, demographic shifts, communications, media relations…the list goes on.  The book scores as history, manifesto, and analysis…but it also serves to tell the story of people who wanted to make a change and got in the fight to do so…and that is the kind of book we should all be interested in.

Mark Warner: Hypocrisy or Ignorance?

Last week or so RK went on about how Mark Warner will takethe country in a new direction.  Unfortunately, once you take a close look at this jaunt into a first cousin of the Federian Spin Zone, you realize Mark Warner is either a complete hypocrite, completely ignorant of the role of the US Senate, or maybe just willing to say anything at all to get elected.

The mess Warner tries to score points on is based in a matter of conscience.  Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid wants to slam through a bunch of spending bills without a roll call vote or debate, so he attempted to pass them by unanimous consent.  GOP Senator Tom Coburn (OK) did not necessarily disagree with the bills, but felt that with the current deficit each new spending bill should be met with a budget cut to offset it, especially if it duplicated existing programs..  As each bill came up for unanimous approval, Coburn objected.

Coburn’s rationale?

“If we pass a new program, we either ought to get rid of the old program or we ought to make it to where it blends with this other one so it’s effective,” Coburn said in an interview last week. Almost everything that they’ve offered has a duplicate program out there that they’re not either eliminating or changing.”

Note that Reid could have run these bills one at a time, but that would have allowed for debate and the possibility of a roll call vote…and these are two things he did not want to happen. He could even have included in the bills the elimination of old programs…but that would alienate some constituency of the Democratic Party.

So Reid, again attempting to get all these bills through in mass-at a total cost of $10 billion dollars-lumped them all together in one bill…and the GOP was able to successfully filibuster the legislation.

Some would look at all this and see a US Senator trying to stop wasteful spending, and a majority trying to skip out on expressing its support for bills it believes in.

Not Mark Warner, who apparently is trying to get on the good side of his future Senate masters. He claims:

It seems like Washington politicians spend so much time keeping score they sometimes forget why they were sent there in the first place.

This session, one Senator used a procedural tactic to single-handedly block nearly three dozen overwhelmingly popular bills - everything from protecting children from sexual predators to investigating unsolved civil rights murders. The bills were bundled together for Senate authorization this week, and even though the legislation did not cost a dime, it was filibustered.

This is a powerful reminder of how far we must go to get Washington functioning again.

What a blowhard. Let’s take a look at all the flaws in this piece of campaign piffle.

1. “Forgot why them came here in the first place?” Oklahoma sent Tom Coburn to the US Senate knowing he is a hard line fiscal conservative. It would seem that stopping unnecessary or redundant spending is one of the things a US Senator would want to do…but not Mark Warner.

2. “…and even though the legislation did not cost a dime, it was filibustered”. A flat out lie. By all accounts the legislation carried a tab of $10 billion. Even bills like the one investigating unsolved civil rights murders, though popular, carries a cost. It may be the various costs from salary to benefits associated with personnel, support costs, even office rental, but there are always costs. To say there are no costs is simply a lie. One would think a business executive would realize that…but not Mark Warner.

3. Although Mark Warner is an educated man, he is clearly not a learned man. The intended purpose of the US Senate is to serve as a damper on popular passion. The House of Representatives, with its two year terms and limits on debate, is the place where the public passions can run rampant. The Senate, with six year terms and a tradition of unlimited debate, is pledged to offer cool reflection and consideration of bills and stop those that may not be well thought out or that duplicate programs or that carry ridiculous price tags as proposed. For those not up on this-like Mark Warner-he might want to read the first 100 pages or so of Robert Caro’s Master of the Senate, which gives a fair history of the US Senate and shows that the Senate acts best when it embraces its responsibilities. Of course, this is only logical to anyone familiar with US government…but not Mark Warner.

4. Mark Warner does not have the courage to attack Tom Coburn by name. Why? Because Coburn is well known for being a foil for foolish spending. His concern for concern for appropriate use of public monies also led Coburn in 2005 to introduce legislation taking funding away from the “Bridge to Nowhere” and directing it to rebuilding New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Tom Coburn has effectively fought for commonsense spending. Most would applaud this…but not Mark Warner

5. There is the not so vague scent of opportunism here. Would Mark Warner have launched such an attack on the “culture of Washington” if a Democrat Senator stood at the bridge to stop spending? Not likely-Mark Warner would likely hail him as a modern day Horatius standing at the gate to stop the barbarians from looting and pillaging. Others would see this as the demagougery and hyporcrisy it is instead of wallowing in it like a pig in mud on a hot day…but not Mark Warner.

6. How can Senator Coburn do this? Because he is using a right he has under the rules of the US Senate, as were approved for this session by the majority Democractic contingent of the US Senate. Some folks would think it silly to criticize a member of the minority party for taking advantage of a rule approved and passed by the majority…but not Mark Warner.

Mr. Warner has a history of being less than forthcoming with the truth when it obstructs him from a goal. When governor of Virginia Mark Warner claimed a tax increase was needed to keep a state AAA bond rating…then it turned out the tax increase was not needed. He claimed he had checked every corner of the state treasury and the cubbard was bare…and then his minions “found” millions tucked away and did not report it to the state legislature during budget negotiations.

Mr. Warner’s release as reported at RK shows he really is not ready for the US Senate. He doesn’t understand the role of the upper house of our legislature, he doesn’t understand the full responsibilities and options of a US Senator, and either he does not understand the legislative process or he pretends not to…the old misfeasance v. malfeasance matter.

Mark Warner is clearly ready to say anything to win.  It also makes it clear what drives him-a lust for public office.  Not apparently to really do anything with it, but to hold office.

That-and that alone-does not meet even the lowest threshold of what it takes being a US Senator.  Maybe the months ahead will reveal more about his take on being  US Senator.  But this appeal, with what he says and what it reveals, does not make one sanguine about such revelations.  But at least we may get a better idea if comments like the one above are based in hypocrisy or ignorance.

Let’s Vote Now…

I had the pleasure this weekend of seeing both the Obama and McCain advertisements, and after considering a few things, I have come to the conclusion we should just go on and vote now. Both sides have pretty much laid out who and what they are, and I don’t know how much good is to be had by waiting until November.

What occured to me:

First, Wesley Clark is wrong on John McCain. Clark claims McCain’s service per se does not qualify him to be president. I think Mr. Clark has spent too much time in antispetic HQ ordering bombing raids and has lost his perspective. It is not that McCain was a POW for 6 years, it is how he behaved. He was the guy that kept the POW’sgoing, who fought not to break, who schemed to escape, and who refused an early release. That speaks of character and toughness, something never out of place in the oval office.

John McCain is a finished product with a record to judge. 20+years in Congress, a record that can be throughly vetted for good or bad. For campaing financing and the various bipartisan votes, you can always toss in the Keating 5. One way or the other, you know what you are getting. His message is not always eloquent, and he carries the burden of the Bush Administration on his back…but he is experienced-and that is the crux of his appeal.

Barack Obama is an unfinished product with a bright shiny message and no real record. Let’s face it, if his civic involvement prior to politics is the yardstick by which potential presidents are to be judged, I doubt he is in the first rank. Obama calls for cooperation and looking to better America by Americans working together. It is a message that resonates in these highly partisan and strident times.

However, he has not forged a record in the US Senate upon which he can be judged-unless he is to be judged on his dearth of a record. Obama has voted “present” 130 times, and has not taken the lead on a single bipartisan effort that endangered his position in the Democratic caucus. He has proven himself to be highly opportunistic-he was in favor of public financing…until it became politically advantageous to not do it. Obamadefended his minister of 20 years…until it became politically advantageous to denounce him. I wonder if he would have taken that early release from the Hanoi Hilton.  But he is not supportive of the Bush record, he has a wonderful message, and he would be the first minority president of a country with a terrible  history littered of racism…and that is the crux of his appeal.

As you might imagine, my preference is for the experienced hand…bright shiny new toys have a way of tarnishing in ways you never imagined. But that is not the real thing on my mind.

This campaign has been going on for an eternity. The records of each candidate have been compared on the web and airwaves for months. There is serious work needed to be done, and the political life of the country is too heavily focused on the “gettin’ it” part of politics than the “doin’ it” part.

We need to get back to business. Let’s just go on and vote.

Yes, I know we cannot do that…but I just wish we could.

Real Reason Kaine May be VP…

In 1920, after the GOP had nominated the Harding-Coolidge ticket, a half drunk new england politico was heard ranting that he would give odds that Harding would not survive his term. When cautioned against this outburst, the inebriated one said,”You don’t understand, Calvin Coolidge is the most lucky SOB in the world!”…and, between getting into office during the 20’s economic expansion, avoiding the taint of the Teapot Dome scandals, and then leaving office prior to the Great Depression…the guy apparently knew what he was talking about.

There are numerous posts up at Democratic blogs about the possibility of Tim Kaine getting the VP-nod, with some of the better posts at RK.

Having some time last week to contemplate politics in the clear forests of Augusta County, and despite my contention that Kaine brings no unique substance to the ticket, I have come to the conclusion that there is a real reason Kaine may snag the VP nod…

…because politically he is one of the luckiest SOB’s in the world. And, as any good poker player knows, when the cards are falling your way you have to press your luck.

Consider the following:

a) Kaine ran for the 2001 LTGov nod as the Mayor of Richmond…but at the time this was not a popularly elected position-it was elected by the City council from amongst its members. Nothing wrong with that, but it means Kaine was fortunate enough to be able to run for statewide office from an elected position where he represented (if my math is correct) less than 25,000 people-far fewer than a member of the House of Delegates or State Senate, or the elected at large mayor of smaller cities like Manassas. Remember, there is a difference between the population of the City of Richmond and the population of the Richmond SMSA.

b) He wins that primary with less than 40% of the vote…not a stunning show of strength.

c) Meanwhile, strange things are going on the GOP side in 2001. Highly conservative and somewhat aging Delegate Jay Katzen, denied the LtG slot in 1997, steals a march on Randy Forbes and attends every fish fry, shad bake, bean dinner, and GOP function for three years. Forbes is running behind Katzen, but as the GOP starts to realize that Forbes would be a much stronger general election candidate Fourth District Democratic Congressman Norm Sissiky dies. Forbes jumps into the special election and wins the seat, leaving Katzen as the all but official LtGov nominee.

d) In the general, despte having a very weak opponent, a strong pull at the top of the ticket, the Gilmore administration economic issues, etc., going his way…Kaine wins with just over 50% of the vote.

e) Kaine bides his time as LtGov, staying out of the spotlight. In 2005, he sits back and allows Jerry Kilgore, accent and all, to self destruct with his Hitler advertisement…but until then the LtGov of a very popular governor had not pulled into the solid lead-as one would expect.

f) As Governor, well, not much to report, but his early endorsement of Barack Obama thrusts his name into the VP conversation.

Tim Kaine does not come to the table with claims of having a successful governorship, nor can he claim that his presence on the ticket will carry Virginia. History is full of national candidates who did not carry their home states. As noted by Lowell Feld, Kaine is perceived to have a bunch of soft and/or assumed strengths…which apparently includes that he is neither Dan Quayle nor Dick Cheney. There is this assumption that his elevation to VP would start a GOP bloodbath in Virginia for the top spot in 2009 that would benefit the democrats.

Normally, I would not put much faith in a the nomination of a candidate whose strengths are all assumptions and perceptions. His weaknesses and deficits are clear. But Kaine has one very real thing going in his favor, and that just cannot be disputed…

…politically he is one of the luckiest SOB’s in the world, and that kind of luck seems to find the hole card at the dangdest times.

…but Kaine has Little Hope for VP

The other day I suggested that Tim Kaine has to get the VP nod to keep his political career on track.  Lack of a strong record and a lack of viable electoral options-both state and federal-vastly limit his options.

There are those who think TheGov hangs the moon.  Comments the other day ranged from “I love Tim” to “shoot the messenger” to pure ad you h attacks. However, I think the facts lean against Brother Tim.

A VP candidate is selected to balance the ticket and/or not to be a drag. VP-nominees have met varied criteria, including:

A) Pull in a critical state or region (LBJ in 1960), OR
B) Experience to cover a lack of federal or international experience (Mondale 1976, Gore 1992, Cheney 2000), OR
C) Ideological balance that makes a party faction happy (Dole 1976, Bush 1980), OR
D) A candidate that does not bring anything to the ticket except they don’t detract from the nominee (Agnew 196
E) A surprise selection to rock the boat and hopefully change the election landscape (Ferraro 1984)
F) Solely to tick off the opposition presidential nominee (Miller 1964)
G) A combination (Bentsen 1988-federal experience and geography)

I don’t see where a Kaine selection is the best choice in this regard to elect Obama:

A) Pull in a critical state or region: Kaine has not emerged as a regional leader either in the Mid-Atlantic or in the South. Many believe he will  ensure Obama carries Virginia; I am not convinced that is true, and second if the only state Obama flips from 2004 is Virginia then he still loses. Kaine does not clearly offer the tools to pull other states.  If he is looking for a Virginia Democrat who more surely does this, then I think the name is Webb, not Kaine.
B) Experience to cover a lack of federal or international experience: Does not fill the bill…and Webb pops up again.
C) Ideological balance that makes a party faction happy: Kaine has managed to create a record that is not clearly identified with the liberals, the conservatives, or the progressives…not to mention the netroots. Does nto fill the bill.
D) A candidate that does not bring anything to the ticket except they don’t detract from the nominee: OK, Maybe
E) A surprise selection to rock the boat and hopefully change the election landscape: Does not apply.
F) Solely to tick off the opposition presidential nominee: Does not fill the bill
G) A combination: OK, maybe…geography AND does not rock the boat…maybe.

Then there is that little matter that the Lt.Gov is GOP, and that Kaine’s elevation to VP flips the Virginia governor mansion.  Does Obama want or need Kaine on the ticket so badly as to allow that to happen?

My prediction:

1. Kaine does not get the VP slot, nor does the get a 2008 cabinet slot.  He does not inspire across the board, he does not clearly fit one of the above categories, and Obama will not want to hand the Virginia governor’s mansion to the GOP.

2. Kaine gets DNC Chairman, not unlike Gilmore got the RNC position after the 2000 elections.  Then, if the Dems hold the Virginia governorship in 2009, Kaine goes on the short list to fill a cabinet position as opening occur.

There is lots of time between now and the convention, but right now an objective reading of the tea leaves are not looking good for Tim Kaine getting on the Obama train in 2008.

Kaine Must Hope for VP…

Tim Kaine has spent many weeks out of state ignoring his elected responsibilities and instead campaigning for Barack Obama…that is because if he wants his political career to continue, he has to get the VP nod.

Kaine is racking up an unenviable record as governor.  He seems to have no real strength in his party, no real pull with the legislature, and has neither the longstanding popular support of Mark Warner or even the bubble popularity once held by Jim Gilmore.  TheGov does not have a record that would get him an automatic reelection…which leads to some interesting speculation on his future plans.

Think of it…once he leaves office, what happens?  One senate seat is held by Jim Webb…and even if Webb were tabbed by Obama and then became VP, Kaine would have to appoint a successor, and the special election for the balance of the term would not be until 2010…and no matter what the tea leaves say for 2008, the other senate seat is not up until 2014…and it may be held by a Democrat. I doubt he could get another nod to run for governor, and the Richmond area is represented in great part by two popular incumbents (Scott and Cantor), so there is no electoral op there.

That leaves appointed office. My pals at TC speculate would Kaine take an appointed slot and raise Bill Bolling to governor, allow him to run as an incumbent, and give the GOP a big leg up in the 2009 elections? He might, but it would have to be for VP. If the nominee of the party comes to you and says please help me lead the country, I bet he would be forgiven for accepting the nod. But a cabinet position? I bet just as much the other way, that if he leaves office for the cabinet he will not be forgiven for giving up the governor’s mansion.

So, with no real opportunities or options for higher elected office on his own, all that is left is an appointed position. It has to be the VP slot…he will be forgiven for accepting that. But if he leaves the governorship for the cabinet, that will burn his bridges for elected office for a lonnnnnnggggggg time.

So it is the national ticket, or a long lucrative legal career with a big name law firm.

You heard it here first.

Why They Run Scared…

Something happened the other day that underscores the silliness of some of the Judy Feder campaign lingo, and also shows just how some really silly stuff is said to raise money.

The Feder campaign has through various means maintained that Congressman Frank Wolf is “running scared”…because refusing to take an opponent for granted is a bad thing. Of course, were he not “running scared” he would be taken to task for being overconfident.

Now Ms. Feder is not the only person who does this.  This tact is a tabiya of politics. The same thing goes on in most any district where a challenger needs to brighten up a boring day and attack the opponent…if they are running scared, they are in danger of losing, but if they are not running scared, they are overconfident. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t-pick your poison.

I believe any candidate worth a dang runs scared. If the office and the opportunity means anything to them, they run scared.  If they are serious about public service, they run scared.

Why? Because if you don’t, things like this happen.

I guess there are other by products of running scared-like drawing over 90% in a party primary and firing up your people…or you could choose to not run scared, and score a much lower percentage.

But who would do a thing like that?

Tim Kaine: Still just an Old School Marm…with Ambition

In the midst of the the 2007 Virginia General Assembly session I blogged about our Governor, Tim Kaine, and his transportation failures. I suggested that while he tried to portray himself as a fearless samurai, he was really something else:

But the GOP [offered a plan], and the Democrats did not. Now Governor Kaine [unhappy with the plan] is running around like an old time school marm who gives an assignment, gives the students freedom to complete the assignment as they see fit, and then pitches a hissy fit when things are not done as she envisioned it being done…At a time when we need leadership, we instead get an old school marm…bitter that she is not more appreciated, tolerated only because of the office held, and never to be remembered fondly or respectfully.

Here we are now sixteen months later, and nothing has changed…except Kaine has dug himself an even deeper hole.

The legislature is in special session to discuss transportation funding. By all accounts, there are multiple parties involved-there is the House of Delegates, a couple of different factions in the state Senate, and then there is TheGov, who apparently is having trouble getting his own plans introduced.

While the GOP want a variation of the 2007 plan, and Dick “I Do It My Way” Saslaw has his own plan to introduce focusing on increases in the gas tax, titling fees, etc., Governor Kaine just wants a billion dollar tax increase. While it is a bit much to say he has been abandoned by his allies, clearly there is a stench about TheGov caused by his interference in the Va-11 primary, his willingness to intervene in capital murder cases, and his regressive tax schemes.

Unfortunately, while the public wants improvements the two parties, and our leadership deficient governor, do not get the picture.

Many times I have written that no plan will go through until the state shows that everything has been done to wring all possible value from the funds currently being spent on transportation. Nothing special, some Ross Perot charts should do the trick. Instead, the new plans-and especially the governor’s plan-draws comments like this:

I don’t suppport any tax increases until I see that they are using what they have efficiently. I see 4 state trucks and 10 workers at a work site and one person (if that) working. I see good roads repaved and bad roads ignored. They take two weeks to do a two day job. A major overhaul of VDOT needs to be done before they get another dime.

No one is going to jump up for new taxes until they are convinced the most bang is beign gotten for the current buck.

But it may be that Governor Kaine doesn’t want a solution. Some have suggested that he is more interested in scoring political points and putting the GOP behind the electoral eight ball than in making progress.

That may be…but if he is really thinking that, he forgets two things:

1. Come the next state election, folks are going to remember that the Democrats held the governor’s mansion and one house of the legislature and couldn’t agree on a plan…as opposed to their previous strategy of not offering a plan and watching the GOP implode. This proposition is not likely to be as politically strong for Kaine; and
2. His not-so-vague longings for a place in the Obama administration are hurt with every misstep he takes. Obama has to be aware that Kaine became governor less on his own merits than on the strengths and failures of others. Couple that with a feckless and ineffectual term as governor, no matter how personally likeable you might be, and suddenly Kaine needs a win to stay in the spotlight; and
3. There is that little matter of a GOP Lt. Governor who will become governor of Virginia if Kaine gets an admin sinecure. Is TheGov’s presence such an overwhelming presence that Obama would turn over the Virginia governor’s mansion to the other party just to bring “Timmy!” on board?

All in all, I doubt it…

Bottom line, things have not changed since February 2007. Kaine is still the old school marm I described in Februrary 2007, only now he has ambition. Unfortunately, that ambition ain’t getting him anywhere.

The ironic part of this is that the advice he needs has been sitting there, waiting to be absorbed, and it is in an essay about his father-in-law.

The Governor’s of Virginia 1860-1978 is a book published in 1982 and offers short bios on the Virginia governors elected or selected from 1860-1973, concluding with Mills Godwin’s second term. Included is an essay by J. Harvie Wilkinson on Governor Lynwood Holton. Wilkinson summarizes Holton’s career-an administrative triumph and a political disaster-by saying that in to move on in politics it is not enough simply to govern well, one must also mind the store politically.

Holton did not do this, and his aspirations to be tapped as VP in 1972 and then to get the GOP Senate nod in 1978 all came to naught. It was another variation on what my father has said about politics being about how well you do two things…”Gettin’ it and doin’ it”.

Apparently TheGov has not learned from the example of his father-in-law…and if he continues on this path he will find his place in history along with those cold, gray men who achieved high office through the efforts of others, and was unable to make things happen for themselves in either the statute books or at the ballot box.

Byrniacs, Federistas, and the Spin Zone in Va-10

Now that the dust has settled from June 10 primaries, a variety of comments in posts on NLS and RK make it look like many supporters of Leslie Byrne are casting about for a new candidate to give their heart to…and that someone may be Judy Feder in Va-10. Of course, this is likely to be an out of district no feet on ground kind of support…but that makes it on a par with much of the support she currently sees.

Ms. Feder has developed a devoted following who simply could not understand why she lost in 2006 and just know she will win in 2008. The Federistas, whether on staff or volunteers, are so convinced of her certain success that they are offering up spin that often defies credulity on any number of issues .

For instance, Leesburg Tomorrow claimed that Ms. Feder warchest had “exceeded $1 million”. Maybe I am reading the campaign finance reports wrong, but as I read it at last report Ms. Feder had just under $700K in her treasury-not small potatoes, but far less than LT claims. It is true that to date on that report Ms. Feder had raised over a million dollars, but she also has spent almost 500K. To suggest that she currently has $1 mil in her warchest is about the same as calling a middle aged factory worker a millionaire because over his entire life in the factory he has received $ 1 mil in salary, health benefits, part time jobs, etc.

Of course, Ms. Feder’s fundraising is another point of interest. As noted at TC, Ms. Feder’s first major fundraiser after winning the 2008 nomination was held in…Maryland. The term tone deaf comes to mind, but one cannot be surprised because it is typical. I don’t diminish the effectiveness of her fundraising. A greenback, one dollar american, is of the same buying value whether it comes from Health Care academic in California, Democratic lobby/pressure groups, special interest groups who don’t like her opponent, or corporation who have faced class action suits from the Commonwealth of Virginia, or a resident of Virginia. This is a good thing, because when you go through the records and look at where Ms. Feder’s money comes from, she is getting money-and sometimes a lot of it-from all the groups above…except Virginia residents in general or Va-10 residents in particular.

The Federistas are fired up that she has been “recognized” as an “emerging” candidate by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. That can hardly be a bad thing, but this is exactly where she was in October 2006. Is it unreasonable to think that with all her fundraising, alleged increased name ID and such, that she should be moving up on the DCCC ladder? What is perhaps more telling is that while trumpeting the trumpeting the reports from partisan groups like the DCCC, the Federistas ignore non-partisan sources like Congressional Quarterly, which has a slightly different assessment of the race.

The recent primary, which objectively raises some questions, is treated like a watershed event.  Ms. Feder defeated Mike Turner with almost 62% of the vote.  First, move beyond the fact that the Democratic primary turnout was less than half that of the GOP event, or that Congressman’s Wolf’s total vote was almost double the entire Democratic turnout…which raises a whole ‘nother set of questions.

What should be raising eyebrows is that 62%.  In a discussion at RK on Va-8 it was agreed that if an incumbent congressman was opposed by anyone, even a protest candidate, the mark that needed to be achieved was 80%.  While it may be higher, the logic was that at any given time an elected official is going to have some number of folks upset with them, but as long as it was not more then 20% they were OK.  This level has been the measuring stick going back generations.

Ms. Feder, the 2006 candidate, possessor of a large warchest, effectively the incumbent Democractic candidate, who has been in the field campaigning for two years, barely cleared 60% against someone not well known and not well funded.  Some suggest her victory was a strong one. I think the 80% standard applies to her, and I think the fact that she did not clear it indicates problems…as well as the fact that she was unable to win Loudoun County.  If she cannot take Loudoun County from a little known opponent, is it reasonable to think she is going to take it from an opponent who defeated her there in 2006?

Ms. Feder faces another disadvantage in 2008 she did not shoulder in 2006, and one there has been little mention of…this time around the Democrats control both houses of Congress. She will not be able to blame Mr. Wolf this year for the inadequacies of Congress as she attempted to do in 2006. If she wants to complain about Congress failing to get something done, it can all be dismissed as the failure of the majority party to act.

Is this race over? Not hardly. The folks at TC who are talking 65% are off base.  2008 will be a rough year for the GOP, and the bookies are undecided if the Obama enthusiasm of the spring will engender huge turnout from previously disinterested voters in the fall, and how they will vote. Add in the Gilmore drag…well, you get the picture. This thing is hard from over.

But if the Byrniacs are looking for another candidate to emotionally support, the Federistas will welcome them with open arms and wildly spinning explanations that show how everything that happens is a good thing for their candidate. We will just have to wait and see how that spinning works out for them.