Renaissance Ruminations

A smorgasbord of erratic thoughts on parenting, politics, grilling, marriage, public speaking-all the things that make life interesting.

Archive for the 'Campaign Finance' Category


Obama, Financing, and Walking the Talk

Posted by bwana on June 20, 2008

How good it feels to be ahead of the power curve!

Many months ago I speculated that Barack Obama would bail on his promise to use public funding of his campaign. Now the other shoe has fallen. Obama has officially rejected down public financing despite his previous promise to use it if his opponent accepted…which John McCain did long ago.

This and other Obama actions continue to indicate his willingness to talk it up, but not to walk it out.

Some suggest that Obama has always viewed the financing question as a way to get press. I speculated back when as to the motivation for making the promise in the first place-a cheap way to get good publicity.

Now it would be one thing if he simply reneged on a promise and moved on-politicians do that all the time. He is doing this because he has created a fundraising juggernaut and sees an advantage in using private financing. No problem there…happens all the time.

However, Obama wants us to believe this is not a practical political decision, but instead an attempt to fix a broken system. He wants us to believe his decicion is one of principle, and not practicality.

Among others, the WaPO ain’t buying it:

But given Mr. Obama’s earlier pledge to “aggressively pursue” an agreement with the Republican nominee to accept public financing, his effort to cloak his broken promise in the smug mantle of selfless dedication to the public good is a little hard to take.

Things clearly have changed since Obama filed this with the FEC to keep the public option open:

“Congress concluded some thirty years ago that the public funding alternative . . . would serve core purposes in the public interest: limiting the escalation of campaign spending and the associated pressures on candidates to raise, at the expense of time devoted to public dialogue, ever vaster sums of money.”

Apparently his devotion to this ideal is present-when it benefits him.

As the WaPo concluded:

Fine. Politicians do what politicians need to do. But they ought to spare us the self-congratulatory back-patting while they’re doing it.

This whole process is indicative of the Obama modus operandi.

An example-Obama has made much of his desire for open communication and a new bi partisan approach to government. But as recently recounted when asked “Have you ever worked across the aisle in such a way that entailed a political risk for yourself?”, Obama replied-at great length:

“Well, look, when I was doing ethics reform legislation, for example, that wasn’t popular with Democrats or Republicans. So any time that you actually try to get something done in Washington, it entails some political risks. But I think the basic principle which you pointed out is that I have consistently said, when it comes to solving problems, like nuclear proliferation or reducing the influence of lobbyists in Washington, that I don’t approach this from a partisan or ideological perspective.”

Short Answer: “No, I haven’t”

I understand why Obama ran for president this year…a chance came his way, and he didn’t have a record in office that could be used against him.  Wait another cycle or two and his record gets used against him-just ask John Kerry.

However, it becomes clearer and clearer that while Obama uses his marvelous oratorical talents to talk of a new day in American politics, the reality is too often there is little beef behind the image. For all his talk of the ideal of public financing, he runs from it when it is to his advantage to do so. Obama talks of the ideal of post-partisanship his presidency will lead to, but can show almost no real belief in the idea in his Senate activities.

In 1984 Walter Mondale asked Gary Hart “Where’s the Beef?” If Obama keeps this up, I think folks will range far beyond this simple observation. Instead, they are going to look at his comments and his record, and note the variations. I doubt they are going to view these changes as sincere changes found on the road to Damascus. Instead, they may well think they are listening to a man who is willing to talk the talk, but not to walk the walk, and will do or say anything to get elected.

So much for the new politics…

Posted in Behavior/Morality, Campaign Finance, Democrat, Elections, Elections: 2008 | 2 Comments »

Keith Fimian, Va-11, and the Millionaire’s Amendment

Posted by bwana on February 6, 2008

With the retirement of Tom Davis and the failure of a long list of potential candidates to post, many folks have decided Keith Fimian is The Man for the GOP nod to hold the Va-11 seat for the GOP this fall. Too Conservative has annointed him, as has Chris over
at the Mason Conservative.

One strength that they point to is Fimian’s willingness to self-finance. To that end they note that he has raised $656K to date, and $327K of that is a loan from the candidate.

While the ability to fund oneself can be a good thing, it can also potentially kick in something that was seen in Va-10 in 2004: The Millionaire’s Amendment.

The full run of FEC regs on the Millionaire’s Amendment can be found here. The idea is to keep someone from flat out buying an election.

The threshold is $350K. Once candidate A exceeds that limit they have 24 hours to directly contact the opposition (Candidate B) and inform them they have exceeded the $350K threshold. The individual contribution limit for Candidate B is then tripled (in 2008, that would mean $2300×3=$6900), and stays that way until Candidate B brings in as much money through the increased limit as is needed to match the money Candidate A loaned/donated to his campaign.

Also, national and State party committees may make unlimited coordinated expenditures on behalf of the candidate…to a point.

Notice that this increased limit is meant to level the playing field, and not serve as retribution. If Candidate A above gives/loans his campaign $351K, then Candidate B can use the increased limits to reach $351K, then must stop. Then (at least as I read it), if Candidate A gives himself more money, he must again notify Candidate B, and the increased limits kick right back in.

Virginia is no stranger to the Millionaire’s Amendment. James Socas, the 2004 Democratic darling who was so well thought of that he addressed the 2004 Democratic convention, violated the amendment on the way to being correctly labeled a carpetbagger and being trounced by Frank Wolf in Va-10. However, Mr. Socas failed to notify the Wolf campaign within 24 hours. This was the beginning of the Socas comedy of errors where he did not file finance reports for the post election period, end of year, first quarter 2005 (even though the campaign committee was still operating). Ultimately, he had to pay $67,000 in fines to the FEC for these assorted violations.

It should be noted that Congressman Wolf did not send out requests for additional contributions at the higher limit. He already had the funds he needed, plus there were only ten days or so left until election day which makes it difficult to suddenly pump in contributions at the higher limits.

Given that Va-11 will be an open seat, I am guessing that if Mr. Fimian exceeds the limit then the DCCC and their allies and the backers of LB3/Chair Ger/DD will be completely willing to match him dollar for dollar…if they can. On the other hand, let’s say that Mr. Fimian does a Socas and goes over the limit but does so late in the day. Will there be enough time to counter punch? Will the democratic nominee have time and funds to be able to get out the TV spots accusing him of “buying the seat”?

I don’t know…but Mr. Fimian’s willingness to spend his own money-and apparently there is a little available-makes for an interesting imponderable in the increasingly interesting Va-11 campaign.

UPDATE: the US Supreme Court repealed the Millionaire’s Amendment portion of McCain-Finegold.

Posted in Campaign Finance, Elections: 2008, House of Representatives, Northern Virginia, Politics | 1 Comment »

NOVA Virginia Campaigns Overflow with Cash and Questions

Posted by bwana on February 1, 2008

Last night was the deadline to report end of year financial figures for candidates for the US House of Representives, which combined with recent developments offer some surprises in Va-10 and Va-11.

The fundraising pace continued at a torrid pace in the Tenth, where Congressman Wolf surged ahead of Judy Feder in cash on hand and brought the heat in his quarterly effort.  As of today’s reports:

Tenth District:                               Q4 2007                                   On hand             Liabilities                  Net

Congressman Frank Wolf            $392,516.00                            $555,250.94     (No liabilities)     $555,250.94

Judy Feder                                     $241,458.08                            $483,002.91    (No liabilities)       $483,002.91

Each has an announced primary opponent, but Democrat Mike Turner has a net of  $12,904.47 in the bank and Republican Vernon McKinley-who for some reason does not have an electronic report that is easily found-has less than $3K net (both have loans in place), so we will not get into details.

Meanwhile, life continued apace in the Eleventh, where Fimian carries big totals and liabilities, Davis has a big roll leftover, and the Democrats are yet to pound out the dollars.

Eleventh District:                           Q4 2007                                   On hand             Liabilities                     Net

Congressman Tom Davis              $197,444.58                              $305,189.54     (No liabilities)        $305,189.54

Keith Fimian                                   $126,076.00                              $656,191.75      [-$327,000.00]   $329,191.75

Leslie Byrne                                    $115,398.01                                $103,911.95      (No liabilities)      $103,911.95

Doug Denneny                                  $19,460.98                                $13,917.07         (No liabilities)        $13,917.07

Gerry Connolly                              [No report...rumored $161,000.00 in bank for this race]

—I apologize for the less than orderly columns…still don’t have the hang of doing that in WordPress—

Yes, I know there is a Va-8, but I am willing to guess that seat will stay democrat in 2008…so I left them off.

What caught my eye?

First I noticed the net of Keith Fimian in Va-11.  While his fundraising skills are highly touted, the fact remains that his net is half as much as his cash on hand, and no one seems to be talking about the more than quarter of a million dollar liability he is carrying.  Just how good a fundraiser will he prove out to be?  If he is able to self finance, OK…but remember (as James Socas learned) there is a millionaire’s amendment, so he best be careful.

Tom Davis, while pouring money into JMDD campaign, still has a sizeable amount in the bank.  I imagine no small part of it will find its way back into the Va-11 campaign.

I assume that with Davis out of the way and Va-11 an open seat the DCCC will declare this a targeted seat and whoever gets the nomination will have massively adequate fundraising…but I am guessing LB3 and Gerry C will have to raise at least another $100,000.00 each to be competitive, and likely more.  As for Denneny, I don’t see how he doesn’t get washed out by a wave of greenbacks.

Question: How debilitating and cost will the Democratic primary be?  If it gets nasty, and large $$ has to be spent, then the $$ edge the GOP can generate by getting behind a candidate early could be significant.

Meanwhile, over in the 10th, I have a hunch Ms. Feder is about to be a victim of her own fundraising success.

Now, Lowell will likely draft one of his Federian spin pieces regardless of what I say at this point.  However, we all know the basics.  Feder stayed even with Congressman Wolf in 2006 and got whacked by 16 points in a democratic year.  We all know about incumbency, constituent services, the district boundaries.  Also in 2006 Ms. Feder got added onto target campaign lists due to some polling that ultimately missed the mark.

Now in 2008 she has again constructed a good fundraising operation.  However, there is now an open seat in Va-11 that will likely be the marquee race in Virginia. 

And if that is not enough, there is the small matter of Va-2, where Glenn Nye will run against GOP incumbent Thelma Drake. Drake won narrowly against Phil Kellam in 2006 despite massively out-raising him.

Question: What will be more attractive to democratic contributors? Give money to take an open seat, to defeat a weak incumbent, or to a candidate who has already lost-and by a sizeable margin? Will they look at the ease with which she has raised money to the moment, and decide she doesn’t need their help and that their dollars will have more of a bang elsewhere?

I don’t know on either count, but it sure does make for interesting prognosticating…because asking the question is always easier than knowing the definitive answer.

We shall see!

Posted in Campaign Finance, Elections: 2008, House of Representatives, NOVa Politics, National Politics, Northern Virginia, Politics, Va 10, Va 11 | 9 Comments »

Tom Davis Cash on Hand

Posted by bwana on January 31, 2008

Although Tom Davis has announced his retirement from the US House of Representatives, he still has over $300,000 in his campaign fund.

It will be interesting to see how that money is deployed…

Posted in Campaign Finance, Elections: 2008, Northern Virginia, Politics, Va 11 | No Comments »

And the Money Keeps Rolling In…

Posted by bwana on November 5, 2007

The time is running out on campaign 2007, and the money continues to roll in.

The 11.3.2007/7PM Virginia Public Action Project (VPAP) report is up, and the last minute money requiring 24 hour notice, still piles up.  State law requires candidates during the last two weeks of a campaign to disclose any large donation by the next business day.  For the General Assembly, the amount is $1,000.00, and VPAP tracks these funds.  So do I, with the help of Excel and my handy, dandy pivot tables. 

During the time since the final campaign finance reports came in, $5,267,780.00 in last second large dollar donations has come to various campaigns. As of the the most recent VPAP report, here is the top 20% of the 126 recipients of last second major money:

Devolites Davis, Jeannemarie   $354,925.00
Schultz, Karen                              $293,687.00
Oleszek, Janet                              $265,828.00
O’Brien, James K                         $242,396.00
Holtzman Vogel, Jill                    $239,237.00
Petersen, J Chapman                $233,190.00
Mathieson, Robert                     $196,397.00
Stuart, Richard                           $191,939.00
Poindexter, Charles D               $186,716.00
Bouchard, Joseph                      $174,527.00
Stall, Tricia                                 $172,900.00
Pollard, Albert Jr                      $171,888.00
Welch, John J III                      $159,370.00
Tomer, Adam                            $149,748.00
Ferguson, Eric                           $142,520.00
Loupassi, Manoli                       $125,540.00
Marshall, Danny                       $114,000.00
Rerras, D Nick                          $109,130.00
Northam, Ralph                        $108,505.00
Breiner, Michael                        $78,012.00
Hugo, Timothy D                       $76,972.00
Cuccinelli, Ken                            $69,621.00
Rust, Tom                                   $65,137.00
Frederick, Jeff                           $64,000.00
Lingamfelter, L Scott                $61,500.00

(Sorry for the conga line numbers…I cannot quite get the numbers to line up on the decimal)

These races have received 77% of the last second funds to come in, or $ 4,047,685.00.  Note that this only counts for donations of $500.00 or more. 

There are a few interesting things about the report, beyond the obscene amount of money still coming in…

a)  Far more Senate seats are getting the big money than house seats, which makes sense as Senate races typically cost more.  But more important, and somewhat overlooked in the partisan trench fighting of the last month, is that the Senators elected this year are the ones that will oversee the next redistricting in 2011.  Both sides are going all in as they will not have another chance to remake the Senate.

b) How many races have both their democratic and GOP candidates on the list:

House: 9, 14, and 21
Senate: 6, 27, 28, 34, and 37

These eight races account for 16 of 25 candidates in the top 20%.

c) The races that missed completely…namely Senate 29 between Incumbent Chuck Colgan and challenger Bob FitzSimmonds.  For a race that is supposed to be critical to both parties, almost no last second large dollar donations have come in.  Fitz has received $11,500.00, and Chuck Colgan, most senior member of the Senate, has received none.  None, zero, zip, nada.  Both sides must be incredibly confident…one side is mistaken.  My assumption is that the money that should have gone from the DPVA to Colgan has instead been spent on direct advertising in attacks against FitzSimmonds documented at BVBL so as to give Colgan plausible deniability.

d) “Imbalanced” races, like Senate 1 and Senate 39, where only one person made the top 20%, and a wide imbalance exists in the last second money.  In Senate 1, Tricia Stall (R)recieved $$172,900 against $23,325 for John C. Miller (D).  In Senate 39, incumbent Jay O’Brien got $242, 396 against $56, 947 for George Barker (D).

This is the last desperate push for both sides to have control of the Senate for redistricting in 2011…and lord knows what the financial numbers will show tomorrow.  The nature of the desperation is when state senate candidates begin buying network television time.  Hoot, Cooch, Vogel, Schultz, Chap!, and JMDD have all had their ads on network television, but in a market that covers those three senate districts plus plus 29, 33, and 39.  Perhaps O’Brien or Barker has had network, and I have simply missed it.

One after action report I look forward to hearing is how effective the spending was.  Maybe I am old fashioned, but I have to think that half as much of this money donated and spent in July to build a network and name ID for these candidates would be twice as beneficial to the campaigns than the late campaign tsunami of spending we are seeing.

I think we can be sure of only one thing.  From now until election day-

The Money will keep rolling in….

Gosh, I wish I could work in a Tina Turner moment there…

Rolling, rolling, rolling in the money!

Posted in Campaign Finance, Elections: 2007, General Assembly, Politics, Va House, Va Senate | No Comments »

Campaign Finance Questions…Do You Know the Answer?

Posted by bwana on September 13, 2007

Mark Warner announces his Senate intentions today.

Jim Gilmore and Tom Davis are waiting in the bushes somewhere up ahead.

In the midst of this I have questions regarding Senate campaign financing, because otherwise I am operating on assumptions…

I know that in the House of Representatives, you are on a two year cycle.  For instance, the 2008 cycle began the day after election day 2006, and funds raised between then and June 2008 are counted toward the “nomination phase” of the cycle, and funds raised after that are counted toward the “general election phase”, and the day after the election the process begins again.  Life is similar for presidential candidates, except they are on a four year cycle (for the moment, let’s gloss over federal funding, exploratory committees, etc.).  The current one began the day after Election Day 2004, and will continue until the nominations go out.  During those times, individuals are limited to a maximum of $2300 to a candidate during the nomination phase, and another $2300 during the general election phase.

If I have any of that wrong, please let me know.

My assumption was that the senate had similar cycles depending on which class you are in.  By that logic, the Virginia seat up in 2008 had a cycle that started in November 2002, with the nominating phase ending in June 2008, followed by a general election phase.

Question #1-Is that assumption correct?  Are Senate candidates working on a time frame that coincides with their electoral class, or does it coincide with the two election calendar of the House of Representatives?  Not Mario Cuomo brought this to my attention yesterday and said he thought it was the latter.  Why?  Because then Senators had only one bite at the apple for that cycle-individual contributors would max at $4600 for both cycles, but an ambitious House member gunning for the seat and facing no serious opposition could bankroll over three cycles, with contributors potentially being able to max at $13,800.

Next, both Gilmore and Warner launched Presidential campaigns, and closed them down. Both men had contributors, presumably under the same contribution limits as other federal candidates (nominating phase, general election phase, etc.).

Question #2-Can campaign funds transfer? If a candidate closed out a presidential campaign with money in the bank, can it be transferred to a Senate campaign?

Question #3-What are the Contributor Limitations?  Finally, are those who donated to said presidential efforts now limited in what they can contribute for the balance of the nominating phase?  Assume John Doe contributed $2,300.00 to the Gilmore presidential committee.  Can he now contribute to Gilmore’s senate campaign, or is he maxed for the balance of the nominating phase?

Now scold will likely post something about looking it up myself.  Yep, I can do that, and will if needed.  But I am hoping someone out there has these answers and can save me the trouble.

I imagine this morass of moving from state to federal election campaigns and back to a different federal election campaign is but one of the morass’ the candidates will have to pick through.  Tom Davis should have an edge here, as he has been raising funds under federal rules for years.  Gilmore and Warner won statewide races running under Virginia rules, which allow for about any kind of contribution except for corporate contributions.

Know the answers to these questions? Speak up!  Don’t be shy!  Share your knowledge with the world!  Make my life easier! 

TIA!

Posted in Campaign Finance, Congress, Elections: 2008, Politics, Va Senate | No Comments »