Parliamentary Immaturity In Richmond

Senate Democrats are having a religious experience.  Some might call it Karma, others would simply quote Galatians 6:7 and say “whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.”  Their days of hiding behind John Chichester are coming back to haunt them, and all they can do is stomp their feet and complain of partisan actions.

How can I say such a thing?  Because of what has transpired in the Senate Finance Committee, and how it reflects on The Gov and the Senate leadership.

The Senate Dems have proposed a state budget with all variety of add ons at a time when Governor Kaine is talking about layoffs and raiding the state “rainy day” fund.  There are a wide variety of things that have been talked about but not done (a new legislative building, for instance) and a collection of Governor Kaine fiscal favorites (expanding state paid pre-K coverage is one).  The budget came up and for a vote in the Senate Finance Committee, and it passed in a straight party line 9-7 vote.

Committee Chairman Chuck Colgan (D-Manassas) was outraged, accusing the GOP members of making it a partisan budget.  SenKen, a committee member, reports that Colgan claimed “the Budget is above politics!…Get politics out of this arena, it doesn’t belong here!”

I guess Colgan believes that no candidates ran for office last fall based on how they thought state money should be spent!   Colgan knows that not a single GOP member of the House was targeted in the 2005 primaries and general election because they voted the (later proven to not be needed) Mark Warner Tax Increase.  Shoot, I bet there was not a single person who talked about being able to get funding for this or that or how to stop money from going to an unfavored system or region.  One can easily see how politics and budgeting do not go hand in hand.

Right…

Then, Ed Houck attacked the GOP over their vote, saying “It takes a lot of guts to start kicking around — politically — poor, 4-year-old children. Man, that’s leadership,”. Houck’s sarcasm was applauded by NLS-when in fact it was inappropriate, unstatesmanlike, self-defeating, and quite inaccurate.

Governor Kaine has chastised the House GOP, claiming they will take their ball and go home” by saying it was wrong of them to say “my way or the highway.” Better I suppose to engage in Kainesian Economics and simply accept without questioning what is put before them.

Gosh, where to start?

The fundamental fact is that even in the face of a slowing economy, the Democrats in Richmond and the GOP differ on how much money will come in during the next budget period. They assume that despite the very flat income tax structure in Virginia, that taxes received will raise at a faster from personal income growth. I don’t see how under the current Virginia structure tax income can do much more than increase at the same rate as personal income grows-or declines. To say it will outstrip the income growth rate seems to be unfounded.

First, the Democrats are obviously not enjoying life without John Chichester. First they failed to win his seat in the general election last fall. Now, they no longer have him to hide behind in the Senate Finance Committee. You see, regardless of what you think of him Chichester had the smarts, the charisma, the gall, and the cajones to make his will stand. He also had a permanent majority. Depending on the issue he and his minions could vote GOP and pick up a majority on the right, or bolt and go left and get the Democratic votes. Since he could always get a majority, there was little point in opposing him.

It should be noted that although retired from the Senate Chichester cannot help but heave cheap shots.  He was quoted in the WaPo as opining:

“What you have now is gridlock,” Chichester said from his home in Fredericksburg. “Before, the common goal was, ‘What is best for Virginia?’ Now that’s deteriorated to, ‘What is best for the party?’ “

The Senate vote on the budget was disappointing, said Chichester, who said he never saw such dissent in his 30 years in the legislature.

This is, of course, silly speak. No matter now much the RK guys think this is statesmanlike chatter. The reason Chichester never saw anything like it is because for over half his time in the Senate either the Democrats held a massive majority-so there was no need to work together-or there was a tie-in which case there was every reason to work together.

Some may say the rancor began when the GOP took the majority. It appears to me the rancor began when Chichester became the sole chair of the Finance Committee.

In an aside, I should note how Lowell has changed his tune on what constitutes “partisan rancor”. When the Senate Democrats (in the minority) were voting as a bloc against the GOP budget, it was a good and patriotic thing. Now when the Senate GOP (in the minority) votes as a bloc against the Democratic budget is causes “partisan rancor”.

Horsefeathers…the rancor was already in place, created by an unwillingness on both sides to work together, but fostered on the democratic side of the Senate by their willingness to hide behind John Chichester’s Chairman’s chair.

Moving on…

Chuck Colgan, a good man, has never been accused of having political gravitas. His election in 1975 delayed the widening of Va-234 for years. He is not a leader, nor does he inspire loyalty or fear as Chichester did. He is not going to be able to intimidate, agitate, or otherwise shmooze the GOP minority to do something just because he wants it that way.

Colgan also carries the burden that both sides have come to see that committee and floor votes have consequences now that they might not have had twenty years ago. Twenty years ago a legislator could go along on a bill he was not 100% behind knowing that it would take real digging to get that information before the public in a context that would hurt him. Not now…votes are out and announced an in the public domain immediately thanks to all types of new media.  Votes that went unnoticed twenty years ago now must be defended.

Of course, the differences in how much revenue is coming in might not matter if either party set a needs baseline. Most business’s, people, families, etc., set a budget. The determine what goods and services they need, how much it takes to pay for them, and how much dinero is coming in. If the expenses exceed the revenue, they either cut the expenses or take steps to increase the revenue.

Not in Richmond, not for a long time. For the last ten years it does not matter who holds the legislature or the governor’s mansion, neither party has made a case for what the state needs to spend money on. In hard times, they start talking cuts and layoffs and attriting job openings, but that is all after the fact. No one has been willing to say “here is what we think the state needs-and here is why”. Instead, they assume they should start from where we were in the last budget.

Needless to say, this causes problems…especially when The Gov wants to start new programs in non-growth years.

Part and parcel of this practice is the argument that “this new thing costs so little, we should do it!” This is out of the same logic as the person from the cash strapped family who buys a bunch of stuff the family does not need, but points out that because of the sale they saved money. If the state doesn’t need the program NOW, now is NOT the time to subject the state budget to the Kainesian economics and torture it with the fiscal death by a thousand cuts by pushing through a multitude of small programs that individually may not be huge expenditures (given the overall budget) but taken in the aggregate is a huge sum.

Next comes the lust for power.  Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a real platform they operate from.  I have chastised the GOP for it, but noted the Democrats are no better.  The General Assembly Democrats believe that Governor Kaine’s bankroll won several races for them, so they had better push his program.  This means raiding the rainy day fund, implementing new programs at the expense of existing ones, and doing all this without a framework for explaining where they want to go. 

The stubbornness of the new Democratic leadership is of the same brand as that of the recent GOP Senate Majority. But it is disingenuous for them to carry on in so many forums about how partisan the GOP is being. While in the minority the Democrats wrote the book on “principled obstruction”, part of which was not fighting for legislation-because that created a record that could be fought against in the next election.

Well, now they are in the majority, and they get to learn their own lesson about “principled obstruction”. And now that the Senate Democrats can no longer hide behind John Chichester, now that they have to produce a record, now that they have to show what their own principles are…that adds a whole new aspect to how campaigns will be fought and policy produced here in the Commonwealth.

Most of all, it will cry out for a new parliamentary maturity in Richmond…because to date the new boss is about as petulant as the old boss.

Dear Burke Connection-The Cooch Won!

I have held off on writing this.  I hoped they would get with the program.

But sometimes the media falls down on their job and lets their prejudices to known they have to be called on it.

The legislature goes into session in two days…and the Burke Connection has not run a story on The Cooch beating The Hoot for the State Senate in Va-37….and I think that is just trashy, tacky, and wrong.

Perhaps this is no surprise-The Connection papers endorsed Hoot, and in the most glowing terms.  But after election day, while large articles were devoted to victories by democrats in General Assembly, Board of Supervisor, and School Board elections…no love for the Cooch.  He got a sidebar type article-sort of like you see used for community announcements-that noted he won by 92 votes and that Oleszek would ask for a recount.

We know that, because if you go to the connection newspapers main site, and click on the link for the Burke Connection, you can still find, as of 1700 hours on 1.7.2008, an article posted on 12.13.2007 titled 37th District Recount Set for Next Week. This journalistic gem includes the observation by the reporter that:

OLESZEK has good reason to be optimistic about what a recount might have in store for her. Del. Jim Scott (D-56) initially lost his first House of Delegates race by 16 votes in November 1991 but then ended up winning by one vote after the absentee ballots were re-checked a month later in December, Scott said.

That is not spin from the Hoot campaign, that is reporting offered by the Connection staff.

Try searching on articles about “Cuccinelli”…nothing except the “upcoming” recount.

Ridiculous. Silly. Unspeakable.

Now, as of last week there is a link to an article dated 1.2.2008 that is a year in review piece. Buried deep in this piece is the observation…:

“I am working on rebuilding the party locally. … on recruiting more people and finding more activists,” said Sen. Ken Cuccinelli (R-37), who is the only Republican senator from Fairfax and won his reelection by 101 votes.

…and that is it! That is all they have to say that indicates Cuccinelli won.

No coverage of the recount, no article on Cuccinelli winning, nothing on the reaction of the losing campaign.

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

At least the Washington Post runs full articles on the political campaigns in its geographic areas- no matter how much they dislike the candidate, and in proportion to wins by candidates they like.

The Burke Connection has failed in its responsibility to report the news, and in doing so has revealed its extreme partisanship.

The whole team, from the editors to the folks that deliver the paper, should be ashamed. This inaction will serve to taint its political coverage for a long time to come.

BTW, just to be sure, I checked with the Cuccinelli campaign…and they confirmed they have seen nothing beyond sidebar reports just after election day that reports on the Cooch winning.  I didn’t contact The Hoot to ask her if she had seen any articles announcing with finality she lost.  It just didn’t seem right.

Wrong Lesson being Drawn from Cooch-Hoot 2007

The dust has settled from the GOP Advance, Saxman has bailed, Marshall is talking, and Gilmore is still running.  However, at the Advance and at GOP meeting from Hampton Roads to the Shenandoah Valley a singular thought is being repeated…

“Ken Cuccinelli’s victory proves that a conservative can win in Northern Virginia”

This observation is not the primary lesson to be learned from the Cooch-Hoot throwdown.  I think there is a lesson, but it is much closer to the ground.  The real lesson-and, I suggest, concern-is that conservatives have to run nearly perfect campaigns to win in Northern Virginia.

I first addressed this a few weeks ago, and mentioned the signifiance of the effort:

Why should Cooch be hailed for running the ideal campaign? Because it is something that GOP candidates seem increasingly unable to do. GOP candidates in tough races almost always give in to the urge to do something cute that they are sure will just devestate the opposition-but more typically puts a final nail in their own coffin. Instead, Cooch stuck to the basics and did not allow blood lust to overcome his judgement. He did not succumb to over-eagerness or being over-cutesy. He went back to the basics to win the campaign, and now he is going back to the Senate.

The bad news in all this is that Cuccinelli did win, but he only won narrowly. In fact, at the time of this post he is preparing for a recount-that is how close his win was. 37,100 votes cast, and he won by 92 votes. That is a pretty thin reed to hang your hat on.

I think it was even closer that that. I have gotten the word through the grapevine that only Hoot’s gaffe’s kept Cooch going. I have been told that Cooch polling showed that he was dead in the water in finding an issue to bring against Hoot-every issue they polled on brought more support to her than to him. Then she started the “hypothetical question”, “waffle”, “no set position” stuff…and then Cooch could question the Hoot on competence and not ideology.

I bring this up less to replay the campaign than to show how doggone close run the thing was…and to suggest this is the real lesson.  Cooch ran a campaign that mobilized his supporters.  He neither unecessarily antagonized those unfavorable to him nor did he do something that made him look stupid (”Hitler” ad) or hurtful (JMDD/opponents address) or racist ( “macaca”) or limpid (Earley 2001) or anything else that might push undecided voters to his opponent.  This path has, unfortunately, been the path followed by too many GOP candidates in recent years.

While a clear set of principles, positions, and issues are needed, the GOP does not have a hope of winning upcoming elections without running capable, competent campaigns…and that is the lesson that should be drawn from the Cooch’s likely win in the 2007 elections.

The Cooch’s Future, Prevent Defense, and Insurance Policies

The dust begins to settle and the 2007 elections begin to recede.  Thinking about political Life Its Ownself this weekend while collecting the 857 cubic tons of leaves that seem to have fallen into my yard, a few fleeting thoughts coalesced about some long term lessons and effects from this election.

You may have Ken Cuccinelli to kick around for along time

In the wake of the likely victory by the Cooch over the Hoot, many are writing off the Cooch as being in his last term in the Virginia Senate and as such a likely candidate for Attorney General in 2009.  But after looking at some census data and kicking around the idea with folks who are more knowledgeable such things, I think the large population growth increase  in Prince William County may be creating a different opportunity for the Cooch’s survival.

Since Va 27 already reaches into much of Fauquier (map), and since it is highly unlikely that Colgan will run for another term in 2011, I can see a scenario where Western PW is divided. Cuccinelli lives in a precinct that abuts Prince William County, so there is the possibility of lumping him and the stronger GOP districts in the 37th and the 39th, plus part of Gainesville to make a really sold GOP senate district, but then making the surrounding democratic seats that much stronger. 

As for the rest of PWC, you end up with a Senate district that runs from Manassas to the Potomac, plus a slice that goes into Va 27. Two GOP senators are made stronger, but the 27th is going to stay GOP for a while, and the resulting senate district in PWC will be competitive-something that I doubt the 29th would be, or else successive governors would not have begged Chuck Colgan to keep on running long past the time he wanted to retire.

Besides, there is something to be said for seeing that Fairfax County has at least one State Senator in both parties…and if the Senate redistricting follows the idea that it is better to create bulletproof districts as opposed to several that are strong but not locks, then the Cooch redistricting idea may well come full circle.

Do Not Play Prevent Defense

Every year you see NFL football teams get a big lead, and then try to kill the clock by going into a Prevent Defense. Almost inevitably the pressure goes away and the opposing QB gets some breathing room-and suddenly it is a game and the other guy has the momentum. In this campaign, the Hoot showed us the dangers of playing it safe. Her entire campaign seemed to be geared toward getting out the base. She and her staff seemed to be sure that all they had was to get out the base, and they win easily…so all they had to do was harp on base issues without fully defining Hoot or her positions.

Common sense says that the base within a district varies depending on what kind of election is on tap, and the base vote for President in county x may not be the same as the base vote in the same are for a statehouse campaign. You have to assume you will need non-base voters. Hoot did not, and played the entire campaign as if they thought that if she could just avoid saying something of substance that might bother folks, victory was hers.

Hoot apparently did say things of substance, but only in front of highly partisan audiences commited to her victory. When she entered into open forums, she did not offer substance. She instead uttered verbal gaffes that Cooch exploited. You see, if someone is not qualified to be a senator, then their issue positions will likely be discounted by voters who are not ideologically tied to a candidate.

Lesson: Define yourself before your opponent does, and run full out until election day without assuming the support of a certain group of voters means the election is a lock.

Secure a Majority, Buy Insurance Policies

The Virginia Senate is 21-19, and the GOP needs one more seat to get the totals to level and create through the vote of Lt. Gov Bowling a controlling GOP contingent.  Since the next Virginia Senate election is not until 2011, there are only rare possibilities that the GOP can get control of the Senate back prior to the next election…and that will cost M-O-N-E-Y…so I would start buying life insurance.

As Ben Tribbett noted, there are 23 seats that voted Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes. Four of them are held by democrats. At the risk of sounding morbid, I think the RPV and the Va Dem’s should buy a life insurance policy of some large sum on each of those men (Houck, Reynolds, Colgan, and Miller). Then, if they do pass away while in office, you have a ready made campaign war-chest.

Oh, as  a Public Service Announcement…

Kline’s Drive-In, south of Manassas, will be open only for another 57 hours or so…and then it is history.

As you may have guessed, I am already sitting shiva…

Ryan McDougle and Others-Are They listening to Bwana?

In Sunday’s Wapo Virginia GOP state Senator Ryan McDougle says the GOP has “not articulated a concise message about why people should vote for us as a party.”

I can only assume that Senator McDougle has been reading back posts of Renaissance Ruminations. Consider these Bwana penned gems:

From RR, June 12, 2007:

As many of you know, I have suggested for several months that the GOP needs to be able to create and articulate a unified vision of what the party stands for and where it wants to lead us, especially in Virginia. My cry has been typically answered with a deafen silence.

On March 6, 2007, commenting on the General Assembly:

The question I will offer is simply this…will the GOP learn from the example of the vanished Democratic Majority? Will they find a message and a vision that resonates with the citizens of Virginia, and eschew the quick fix…and in doing so guide the state for years to come?

On December 4, 2006, posting on The Cooch’s adamant statement of “No New Taxes”

…I think that a party without a vision of where it wants to go will not be able to articulate what it believes. Without that vision, without that constant star, there is a risk of losing voters over single issues. Consider Ronald Reagan, or Franklin Roosevelt, or Margaret Thatcher, or Churchill, or King, or any great leader. They had a vision of where they were going and how they intended getting there. When people differed with them on an issue the vision served as a safety net that reminded them”we disagree on this matter, but we agree on where we are going”. The vision defines the effort, the vision defines the cause, and the vision keeps support even when there is disagreement on single issues.

Later in that same piece:

Being ideologically pure and politically smart do not have to be mutually independent. But by offering issues without vision, by using fancy campaign tactics without offering substance, by offering a banquet of spicy themes without any meat and potatoes that stick to the ribs, the GOP will do something unique…They will stand for something AND fall for anything…and that is no way to win elections.

…and so on and so forth on back for a couple of years…going back as far as November 15, 2005:

The real key to winning elections is parties that stand for something. The key lies with candidates who promise not just to lead but offer real and achievable ideas that will better the lives of all the citizens that candidate wants to represent and workable plans to make those ideas reality. The key lies with candidates who excite and motivate the party base to work and persuade the undecided voters to believe.

It is gratifying to see the party leadership is finally picking up on my not-so-subtle hints…the question is-what does the party intend to do about it?

The same WaPo article says:

…Conceding they have been outmaneuvered by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and the Democrats, GOP elected officials and activists say the party must recast its message and find strong leaders to deliver it, especially in fast-growing and diverse Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Ya think?

So now that the leadership is getting on board, let me offer some very general suggestions:

1. Get out the sharp pencils and pads and write down what the Virginia GOP thinks government should be doing and why.  Don’t make any assumptions about things just because it already exists.  Start from zero, make no assumptions, and list and define what the party thinks Virginia needs and how to deliver it.  This is a time to reinvent government.
2. Get out the calculators and spreadsheets and calculate how much it will take to make this happen
3. Estimate revenues for each of the next ten budget cycles.
4. Come back with a legislative plan saying this is where we want to go, and how much it will cost and how long it will take to get there.
5. Having come to the state with a plan and the cost, explain why this plan is best for the state, that it meets the needs of Virginia’s families and safeguards its economic future.

This is what families across the commonwealth have to do to plan, budget survive and-hopefully-prosper. If it works for our citizenry as individuals, it should be really good starting point for the state as a whole.

All the great legislative triumphs in history have been based in a willingness to look beyond business as usual and had the courage plant a flag in the ground and say “Here we stand, and this is what we stand for.”

It can work in Virginia-shoot, it can even work for the Democrats, who have been willing to sit for years waiting for power to fall into their laps. Virginia wants leadership, we need leadership, and neither party has offered it.

The choice and the chance are there, just waiting to be seized. Who’s going to cowboy up and make it happen?

Cuccinelli-Oleszek: Overtime, and the Ideal Campaign

Well, it is all over but the shouting…and lord has there been plenty of that.

Cooch and the Hoot dueled to the last minute of election day, and following the unofficial count and the official canvas the Hoot is still ahead by 92 votes.  The difference between the two is .002%, or 1/5 of one percent.  In Virginia the loser of an election with a margin of victory of less than 1/2 of one percent can request a state funded recount after the official results are certified.  However, recent strides in voting technology make it extremely unlikely that the 92 vote margin will change unless there is some huge malfunction discovered…and since the canvas (essentially a count) was conducted with a fine tooth comb, I doubt the margin will change.

Consider the McDonnell-Deeds race in 2005…McDonnell wins by 323 votes out of 1,943,250 votes cast-a difference of .00016%.  Deeds requests a recount, and nothing changes despite having a significantly narrower margin.  It was in part the fact that no numbers changed in this race that led both GOP and Democrats to urge George Allen to not ask for a state funded recount (although he was eligible to do so) because of the unlikelihood of the overall result changing.  Allen did not ask for the state recount, a decision that was applauded on both sides of the aisle.

Now the shoe is on the other foot, and attitudes are different now-at least if the blogosphere is any indication.  Democrats posting at RK and at NLS are urging Hoot to ask for a recount while at the same time criticizing GOP posters who say that Hoot should concede the election.  I guess sometimes it is easier to talk the talk than to walk the walk.

I say let her have the recount.  The Democratic pain at not winning this seat goes deep, and I can only imagine the whining that will ensue if she goes not go the recount mode and take every step possible of winning this election.

But sooner or later Hoot is going to have to own up to the fact that she lost…and when that happens the recriminations that have already flown about will ramp back up. They can be found at different places, and are quite critical of Hoot’s campaign manager.  There are also calmer examinations of the Hoot campaign.  I agree with the analysis offered by AIAW, especially on the matter of trying to fight the election on a Pro-Life/Choice platform.  I noted several times that with immigration, transportation, education, and other issues of greater public concern at play in this election that repeatedly focusing on stem cell research did not seem like anything except a way to motivate the base-and if the democratic base was not ready to storm Fortress Cuccinelli on day one, then Hoot had some fundamental problems going on.

But all this wringing of hands in Democrat land overlooks one thing-Republican state Senator Ken Cuccinelli ran the ideal campaign, and he should be congratulated on that.  I do not mean perfect-there were glitches along the way, like the failure to have any presence at all at Day 2 of the Burke Centre Festival.  But Cooch set up a fundamental plan, put it in motion and stuck to it.  He did not make elementary mistakes, not did he make mistakes that created an opening for Hoot to jump in.  While both sides went on the attack, Cooch used Hoot’s verbal stumbles to argue she was not ready to be a state Senator without casting her as a bad person.  He also did not respond to fishing expeditions by Democrats trying to create issues, nor did he do anything stupid that gave Hoot an opening to come after him-compare that with the JMDD-Chap! mailing thing.

Why should Cooch be hailed for running the ideal campaign?  Because it is something that GOP candidates seem increasingly unable to do.  GOP candidates in tough races almost always give in to the urge to do something cute that they are sure will just devestate the opposition-but more typically puts a final nail in their own coffin.  Instead, Cooch stuck to the basics and did not allow blood lust to overcome his judgement.  He did not succumb to over-eagerness or being over-cutesy.  He went back to the basics to win the campaign, and now he is going back to the Senate.

Cooch created a plan, stuck with it, and did what he had to do to give himself his best chance of winning…and it paid off.  He won a re-election campaign that no one outside the true believers really thought he had a chance of winning.

Gosh, if that is not the ideal campaign, what is?

UPDATE: Hoot announced she will ask for a recount. The RK denizens rejoices; NLS ponders another J. Murray question.

Va 1: So Much for “Be Nice” & Predictions

Pseudonymous blogging makes it easy to be ignored, even when I am right. Yesterday I urged the folks participating in the Virginia First Republican Convention to:

“Be Nice, and Follow the Rules”

Naturally, I was ignored…Hey, I can only try to help.

Today’s Daily Press online version offered an LTE from a Willam Welsh, who didn’t agree that the the late Jo Ann Davis “filled the shoes” of her predecessor, the late Herb Bateman:

First of all, Davis never reached the level of service her predecessor, Herb Bateman, did. She never had the impact on the House Armed Services Committee that Bateman had.

Then he hits his stride…

While it is regrettable Davis passed away, it is equally regrettable she is credited with having served so well.

Mr. Welch goes on to mention his support for Paul Jost and Sherwood Bowditch, and finishes strong with:

As for the other Republican candidates, including Chuck Davis, they are not capable of beginning to fill Herb Bateman’s shoes –– shoes which have remained unfilled since 2000.

Pretty nasty stuff on the face of it. Somewhere between rude and distasteful. First of all, has this man lost his sense of respect for the dead? Next, did he really put issues of perceived effectiveness in the same league as death? He finishes strong by not simply stating his support of certain candidates, but by maligning the candidates-including the late congresswoman’s widower. Oh, and he cannot simply say his piece, but he has to drag in a man long gone from the earthly pale to slime political rivals past and present. There are certain rules of polite conduct, and this letter is in no way, shape, or form according to Hoyle.

But it gets worse. When you read the comments, and/or the rebuttal comments by Roger Pogge (former 1st Congressional District Republican Chairman) and Brenda Pogge, Delegate-elect, 96th House of Delegates District, you find that:

1) Mr. Welch’s wife worked for Mr. Bateman;
2) Mr. and Mrs. Welch supported Paul Jost over Jo Ann Davis for the nomination in 2002;
3) Despite their opposition, Jo Ann Davis did not ask for Mrs. Welch’s resignation upon her election, instead keeping Mrs. Welch employed through her retirement (with federal benefits) this past summer.

And then Mr. Welch writes this dreck? Oh-ingratitude, thy name is Welch!

What possessed him to write this letter? Moreover, to write it days before the Va-1 convention. Does he really think this will help his candidates?…but perhaps the best question is why was this letter published?

I was told last week by a former Va 1 political junkie that some of the baggage Mr. Jost brings is that the Newport News and Hampton business community will not support him over a democrat, much as happened in the recent Miller-Stall state senate election. I think that attitude may just have bled over to the newspapers. Someone wanting to keep Mr. Jost in the ballgame would have killed this letter. The only reason I can think of is to somehow help Mr. Davis while undermining an opponent, not only through the visceral reaction to this bilge but by showing Jost has no control over his campaign or his supporters.

Between this letter, the Caroline County mishegas, and the fact that most jurisdictions will be sending their maximum sized delegations, I think tomorrow will be a big old slug fest.  We can only hope that Mr. Welch shows up in his big boy clothes and doesn’t further embarrass himself, his candidate, or the party.

What will happen tomorrow? My take is this…

1. If Chuck Davis is going to win, he has to either win on ballot 1 or come in so close to a majority that he cannot be denied on ballot 2…otherwise the emotion that drives some delegates to select Representative Davis’s husband will fade and the delegates will start thinking politically again. But grabbing that kind of total on the first ballot with a bazillion candidates in the field? Could be tough.

2. After this letter, I doubt the Davis delegates will be going to Jost on any ballot, and I think the folks who are there as good Republicans will react badly to this this letter.  Going to be tough to win if Davis has a sizable plurality and a candidate cannot get to them as their second choice.

3. If Davis doesn’t win early, and if no rush goes to Jost (perhaps the two best known candidates) due to ideology and ability to self finance, then the convention will settle down to siege warfare for a couple more ballots, and the winner will be either Delegate Wittman OR a dark horse candidate from the lower peninsula…maybe even former First District officer and conservative blogger James Atticus Bowden!

In the meantime, I am not sure what part of this Mr. Welch (and perhaps others) misunderstood, so let me try it again. As you folks head to the District Convention:

“Be Nice, and Follow the Rules”

Just so we understand, because I didn’t spell it out last time…that means the rules of the party, the rules of decorum, and the rules of just plain decent polite society.

I hope the folks who most need to follow this advice are listening.

UPDATE (11/10/2007…0639)

Sherman Bowditch, one of two candidates Mr. Welch praised in the LTE referenced above, has responded-and admirably, I think:

We were greeted yesterday morning with the type of slander that makes people avoid public service. Jo Ann Davis served the First
Congressional District with distinction, humility and honor. Mr. Welch is not a supporter of mine and told me personally that he would be
supporting another candidate. Mr. Welch should understand that I do not welcome his support and I am personally offended by his remarks.

All who enter politics should know that unfair and even untrue things will be said about them. This is unfortunately the nature of our current  political climate. By demeaning and misrepresenting the accomplishment and service of Representative Davis a race that had been largely positive was made much cheaper. I am sorry that my name was mentioned in yesterday’s letter to the editor. I add my voice to many others in denouncing the tone, words
and sentiment of Mr. Welch letter.

Sincerely,

Sherwood Bowditch

Also, the MSM has finally jumped on board regarding the curious shenanigans in Caroline County.

Finally, as always, remember to:

“Be Nice, and Follow the Rules”

Bwana Pretty Prescient, it seems…

I just had my attention directed to this post, which I wrote last January. I noted a WaPo article that quoted Brian Moran warning Jackson Miller to not be an “extremist”:

“If Delegate Miller sides with the politics of extremism, I would expect a competitive race this fall,” said Del. Brian J. Moran (D-Alexandria). “Whether on transportation or immigration, we need moderation on every issue. That’s how Harry Parrish led.”

I rebutted with:

“…no matter what Jackson Miller does this session, no matter how he votes, Moran will be back on the soapbox this fall claiming that Miller could have emulated Harry Parrish, and instead choses to side with the extremist elements of the GOP.”

Yeah, I think I nailed this one.

Va 1: Mom’s Advice, Shenanigans, and a cautionary tale

Tonight and tomorrow night GOP mass meetings throughout Virginia’s First District will select delegates to the District convention on November 10.

I have a favor to ask of you good people.  As you go through the stresses of these meetings, being held right after a general election where some people you know got the short end of the vote, I ask you to remember my late mother’s advice whenever I went to visit someone: “Be nice, and follow the rules”.

I say this as early reports from Caroline County make it seem like some folks may be ignoring both these concepts…consider, for instance, this report:

“…[former] Delegate Dick Black…informed us about the shocking shenanigans that are going on in the First Congressional District. The problems are coming up in the secretive and often difficult process that is being used in selecting the delegates for the convention.

On November 3rd, Del. Black attended one in Caroline County. It was at an unmarked location down a gravel road in the woods. A steel gate marked with “No Trespassing” signs blocked the road. The meeting was scheduled for 9:00 am, but they secretly held it an hour early and you couldn’t enter the meeting without violating the Virginia Code on criminal trespass.

They elected nine delegates for Del. Rob Whitman, who avoided the meeting even though it was in his own district.

It gets even stranger: when Paul Jost, another candidate, showed up and asked why the meeting was held early, a woman helping to run the meeting apparently yelled at him using profanities and she had to be restrained!”

There has been no mention of these events in the press, likely because of the recently held general election.  But let’s just suppose it’s true, or even partially true.  We will even put aside the thought that if this the type of thing that did happen, then the results of this meeting can be thrown out.  Instead, let’s consider that this is the kind of stupid politics that makes conventions tinder boxes for electoral disaster because of the way it can turn off the party faithful and cost a campaign volunteers, financial support, and general good will.

Consider two recent scenarios:

1) Two candidates, hard fought nominating campaign for a House of Delegates nomination.  No chicanery, no fancy footwork on the meeting notice or site.  Room packed with folks.  Candidate A has more bodies, but Candidate B has more bodies in the right jurisdiction and narrowly wins nomination.

2) Two candidates, hard fought nominating campaign for a House of Delegates nomination.  Questionable conduct and fancy footwork on the meeting notice and site by a chairman on the payroll of Candidate A.  Room packed with folks.  Candidate A has more bodies, but Candidate B has questions about are they properly qualified.  Candidate A wins with the help of Chairman, who then disallows Candidate B’s appeals.  Candidate A wins nomination.

Does any of this sound familiar? 

Door #1 is Virginia HOD 50, where Jackson Miller defeated Carroll Weimer for the nomination in 2006, and defeated democrat Jeanette Rishell in the 2006 special election (and again in the 2007 regular election).  GOP Seat held

Door #2 is Virginia HOD 51, where Faisal Gill defeated Julie Lucas in circumstances so poisonous that the repercussions not only severely damaged Gill (who lost his election, and with it a GOP held seat) but also apparently contributed to losing Jay O’Brien’s senate seat. GOP Seat(s) Lost

Mass Meetings are a way to make sure the nomination is not impacted by crossover voting and effectively keeps democrats out of the GOP nominating process.  However, improper machinations can both keep out democrats and disenfranchise GOP voters who want to participate-and that’s even before the meeting begins and matters like slating kick in!

Everyone is tired after the Tuesday elections, and everyone in the GOP is unhappy with the results…but the road back starts with electing a Republican to succeed Jo Ann Davis, and that requires a united party unriven by internal bickering.  More than that, the body politic needs to find a road back to a higher level of discourse and behavior. 

The road to both begin with the Va-1 special election and nominating process…so please, as you go through the mass meetings and convention, choose the conduct found behind Door #1.  Or, as my mother said:

“Be Nice, and Follow the Rules”

Va 1: Mr. Bowden Goes to Washington

Jimmy Stewart played a naïve man who went to Congress and stood up for us all in “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.” Down in Tidewater ‘Jimmy’ Bowden isn’t naive, but neither is he wealthy or connected to big money. So, can Jim Bowden go to Washington armed with only support of regular folks and a better grasp of public service and Armed Services expertise than well funded career politicians? We will find out this weekend.

On November 10th, the Republicans of Virginia’s First District select their candidate for the special election to fill the seat formerly held by the late US Representative Jo Ann Davis. In this very Conservative district of Tidewater - and a bit of Hunt Country – Virginia, the Republican candidate has a 3-2 advantage. That is why a dozen or so Republicans want the nomination.
Unsurprisingly, a key issue of winning the candidacy is boiling down to money, and that’s where maybe Jim Bowden is as naive as Jimmy Stewart.

Bowden once wrote that the tight time lines of a nominating race lasting a few weeks that all the money in the world can’t buy the election.

Maybe he’s wrong…

The field includes the wealthy, the elected, and the connected…then there is the political activist, grassroots guy –James Bowden…and his path to the nomination is obstructed by a wall of checkbooks.

He enjoys financial support from regular folks, average $20 to $200 in donations from across the country as well as his home District. His campaign is driven by volunteer workers across the District who are recruiting and shepherding the Delegates needed to win the Convention next Saturday. Can such a grassroots effort win national office?

Please forgive me if I get a little preachy, but when you see a good man like Jim Bowden getting kneecapped by those he has worked with…well, it gets my dander up. Moreover, what is happening to Jim Bowden is reflective of what keeps so many folks from considering entering public life

Jim tells his story in text and videos here and here. This new media tells a story that otherwise can’t get out in this special election. The MSM is too busy reporting on and now commenting on the general election to say much about the nominating conventions on November 10th. This despite the opinion of some that the Republican convention is the de facto election for the U.S. House of Representatives.

If his story shows the credentials to compete and win the nomination and the special election against Conservative-appealing, ex-military Democrats, then what is the problem? The problem is that money buys paid professionals to promote one candidate or down another. Wealth brings paid professionals. Bowden can work hard to exhaustion and wield the sword of truth to good advantage in one place at a time while the paid staff of other candidates work simultaneously in the other 22 counties and cities. His volunteers across the District have only sparse minutes to do what pros are well paid to do by the hour.

Money, like power, is an aphrodisiac, and many are choosing patrons over principles. A Virginia Pro-Life organization sent out a press release touting two candidates, candidates who have made major financial contributions to the organization. Pro-Life lobbyists knew that other candidates have just as strong a commitment to life, and have welcomed their support. These same lobbyists continue to ignore others whose passion for life is larger than their checkbook.. How powerful is the pull contributions past and the hope for more in the future!.

Of course it’s reasonable for many Conservatives to repay the generous financial support of the past with political support now. Yet, movement Conservatives and Conservative advocacy lobbies should ask themselves how they can serve two masters - truth and wealth. If they believe in the principles they espouse, they should be more candid in their endorsements and not ignore those who have fought the good fight with them. I can only hope other groups extend better treatment to those running in Va 1.

The same can be said for politicians who wanted to carpetbag into the District and run for the office. The timelines between getting one office on November 6th and winning a different office nomination on November 10th were just too tight. Even a seasoned politician is too hard put to explain the logical inconsistency, moral mousiness and just sleazy politics to pull such a stunt. So, keeping in mind a future chance at a prize, these politicians support the guy they see as a walking ATM.

Where does that leave Jim Bowden? Earning delegates one by one, one phone call at a time. He wants to recruit a Gideon’s Army-sized force. If not, I imagine he’ll take a Gideon’s company or platoon into Caroline County, Virginia and see what can be wrought.

Why does my friend Jim Bowden fight this fight? For the same reasons he served this country in the military, for the same reason he uses his voice and pen to address the important issues facing this country. He believes the United States is the best hope of the world, and the best way to keep us all safe and strong is to seek “dignity, justice and hope” for all Virginians…and for all Americans.

It has long been said “Public office is a public trust”. Has it become nothing more than a private purchase?   Has cash overwhelemed conscience as a test for public life? Tidewater Virginia, it’s your time to answer that question. Sign up to be a delegate on November 7th. If you have filed, search your heart and mind and vote rightly.