Myrtle Beach, Tim Kaine, and Contrarian Thinking

Team Bwana, having feverishly rushed through school supply purchase, is at Myrtle Beach testing the truth of the observation “a bad day at the beach beats a good day at work.”

The observation…is true.

Now that the boomerang weather phenomenom known as Tropical Storm/Hurricane Faye will likely not rip through the Grand Strand-thus guaranteeing SWMBO and the WMD much more beach time-I have had some time to ruminate on the possibility of Tim Kaine for VP.

While I don’t think it will happen, I am starting to see not only how it might happen but how it is not a good thing for the Va GOP.

Call this the contrarian school of thought.

First, as I have noted previously, Tim Kaine has gotten to where he is through a marvelous run of luck…and as any card player knows, when the cards are running your way you have to play big.  Next, Kaine and Obama just seem to mesh.  They seem to be sympatico in a way that has not been present between Pres and VP in, well…maybe ever.  Third, Kaine does not bring a large school of detractors.  The national electorate will likely give little focus to the lack of leadership that Kaine has provided as governor, and Kaine may well be the one person that can be added to the ticket without detracting somehow from Obama.

If he is tabbed, and Obama wins, then Bill Bowling becomes governor.  I suspect that Kaine will resign as governor as soon as possible.  Why?  To give Bowling as much time as possible not only to be governor but to become identified with whatever problems face the electorate in the 2009 elections. 

I have to wonder come 2009 will folks readily remember that the democrats held the governor’s mansion from 2002-2008?  Will the lack of leadership or memorable legislation beyond the Warner tax increase of 2005 be recalled?  Will voteres recollect how time and again refused to lead on transportation and other issues, instead hoping the GOP would implode in the General Assembly and allow the democrats to win at the ballot box…

…OR…

Will voters go to the ballot box, be aware of the problems, and see that a Republican is in the governor’s mansion?

Call me crazy, but sand, surf, cool breezes, and a Corona or two does cause one to reconsider the contrarian view of life.

I just have to wonder…

Well, the tide is heading out and “Summertime is calling me” for another “Myrtle Beach Day”.

And when I have a chili dog at the OD Pavillion…I will be thinking of you in the blogosphere!

The Raw/Drift Perspective-Who Wins?

Yesterday I read Marc Fisher’s opinion column “Raw Fischer” that Virginia transportation problems should be blamed on the GOP for not blindly following the Democrats in raising taxes.

But the boys at Bearing Drift suggest in their podcast that since the House of Delegates passed a GOP sponsored plan that did not raise taxes, and said plan was shot down by the Democratic Senate, that the Democrats will be blamed.

It will be interesting to see who really ends up winning in all this.

Meanwhile, TheGov tosses in his plan to seemingly tax everything but gasoline and has it tossed back at him by both houses. I guess that while we cannot yet identify the winners, we can start to identify the losers.

Real Reason Kaine May be VP…

In 1920, after the GOP had nominated the Harding-Coolidge ticket, a half drunk new england politico was heard ranting that he would give odds that Harding would not survive his term. When cautioned against this outburst, the inebriated one said,”You don’t understand, Calvin Coolidge is the most lucky SOB in the world!”…and, between getting into office during the 20’s economic expansion, avoiding the taint of the Teapot Dome scandals, and then leaving office prior to the Great Depression…the guy apparently knew what he was talking about.

There are numerous posts up at Democratic blogs about the possibility of Tim Kaine getting the VP-nod, with some of the better posts at RK.

Having some time last week to contemplate politics in the clear forests of Augusta County, and despite my contention that Kaine brings no unique substance to the ticket, I have come to the conclusion that there is a real reason Kaine may snag the VP nod…

…because politically he is one of the luckiest SOB’s in the world. And, as any good poker player knows, when the cards are falling your way you have to press your luck.

Consider the following:

a) Kaine ran for the 2001 LTGov nod as the Mayor of Richmond…but at the time this was not a popularly elected position-it was elected by the City council from amongst its members. Nothing wrong with that, but it means Kaine was fortunate enough to be able to run for statewide office from an elected position where he represented (if my math is correct) less than 25,000 people-far fewer than a member of the House of Delegates or State Senate, or the elected at large mayor of smaller cities like Manassas. Remember, there is a difference between the population of the City of Richmond and the population of the Richmond SMSA.

b) He wins that primary with less than 40% of the vote…not a stunning show of strength.

c) Meanwhile, strange things are going on the GOP side in 2001. Highly conservative and somewhat aging Delegate Jay Katzen, denied the LtG slot in 1997, steals a march on Randy Forbes and attends every fish fry, shad bake, bean dinner, and GOP function for three years. Forbes is running behind Katzen, but as the GOP starts to realize that Forbes would be a much stronger general election candidate Fourth District Democratic Congressman Norm Sissiky dies. Forbes jumps into the special election and wins the seat, leaving Katzen as the all but official LtGov nominee.

d) In the general, despte having a very weak opponent, a strong pull at the top of the ticket, the Gilmore administration economic issues, etc., going his way…Kaine wins with just over 50% of the vote.

e) Kaine bides his time as LtGov, staying out of the spotlight. In 2005, he sits back and allows Jerry Kilgore, accent and all, to self destruct with his Hitler advertisement…but until then the LtGov of a very popular governor had not pulled into the solid lead-as one would expect.

f) As Governor, well, not much to report, but his early endorsement of Barack Obama thrusts his name into the VP conversation.

Tim Kaine does not come to the table with claims of having a successful governorship, nor can he claim that his presence on the ticket will carry Virginia. History is full of national candidates who did not carry their home states. As noted by Lowell Feld, Kaine is perceived to have a bunch of soft and/or assumed strengths…which apparently includes that he is neither Dan Quayle nor Dick Cheney. There is this assumption that his elevation to VP would start a GOP bloodbath in Virginia for the top spot in 2009 that would benefit the democrats.

Normally, I would not put much faith in a the nomination of a candidate whose strengths are all assumptions and perceptions. His weaknesses and deficits are clear. But Kaine has one very real thing going in his favor, and that just cannot be disputed…

…politically he is one of the luckiest SOB’s in the world, and that kind of luck seems to find the hole card at the dangdest times.

…but Kaine has Little Hope for VP

The other day I suggested that Tim Kaine has to get the VP nod to keep his political career on track.  Lack of a strong record and a lack of viable electoral options-both state and federal-vastly limit his options.

There are those who think TheGov hangs the moon.  Comments the other day ranged from “I love Tim” to “shoot the messenger” to pure ad you h attacks. However, I think the facts lean against Brother Tim.

A VP candidate is selected to balance the ticket and/or not to be a drag. VP-nominees have met varied criteria, including:

A) Pull in a critical state or region (LBJ in 1960), OR
B) Experience to cover a lack of federal or international experience (Mondale 1976, Gore 1992, Cheney 2000), OR
C) Ideological balance that makes a party faction happy (Dole 1976, Bush 1980), OR
D) A candidate that does not bring anything to the ticket except they don’t detract from the nominee (Agnew 196
E) A surprise selection to rock the boat and hopefully change the election landscape (Ferraro 1984)
F) Solely to tick off the opposition presidential nominee (Miller 1964)
G) A combination (Bentsen 1988-federal experience and geography)

I don’t see where a Kaine selection is the best choice in this regard to elect Obama:

A) Pull in a critical state or region: Kaine has not emerged as a regional leader either in the Mid-Atlantic or in the South. Many believe he will  ensure Obama carries Virginia; I am not convinced that is true, and second if the only state Obama flips from 2004 is Virginia then he still loses. Kaine does not clearly offer the tools to pull other states.  If he is looking for a Virginia Democrat who more surely does this, then I think the name is Webb, not Kaine.
B) Experience to cover a lack of federal or international experience: Does not fill the bill…and Webb pops up again.
C) Ideological balance that makes a party faction happy: Kaine has managed to create a record that is not clearly identified with the liberals, the conservatives, or the progressives…not to mention the netroots. Does nto fill the bill.
D) A candidate that does not bring anything to the ticket except they don’t detract from the nominee: OK, Maybe
E) A surprise selection to rock the boat and hopefully change the election landscape: Does not apply.
F) Solely to tick off the opposition presidential nominee: Does not fill the bill
G) A combination: OK, maybe…geography AND does not rock the boat…maybe.

Then there is that little matter that the Lt.Gov is GOP, and that Kaine’s elevation to VP flips the Virginia governor mansion.  Does Obama want or need Kaine on the ticket so badly as to allow that to happen?

My prediction:

1. Kaine does not get the VP slot, nor does the get a 2008 cabinet slot.  He does not inspire across the board, he does not clearly fit one of the above categories, and Obama will not want to hand the Virginia governor’s mansion to the GOP.

2. Kaine gets DNC Chairman, not unlike Gilmore got the RNC position after the 2000 elections.  Then, if the Dems hold the Virginia governorship in 2009, Kaine goes on the short list to fill a cabinet position as opening occur.

There is lots of time between now and the convention, but right now an objective reading of the tea leaves are not looking good for Tim Kaine getting on the Obama train in 2008.

Kaine Must Hope for VP…

Tim Kaine has spent many weeks out of state ignoring his elected responsibilities and instead campaigning for Barack Obama…that is because if he wants his political career to continue, he has to get the VP nod.

Kaine is racking up an unenviable record as governor.  He seems to have no real strength in his party, no real pull with the legislature, and has neither the longstanding popular support of Mark Warner or even the bubble popularity once held by Jim Gilmore.  TheGov does not have a record that would get him an automatic reelection…which leads to some interesting speculation on his future plans.

Think of it…once he leaves office, what happens?  One senate seat is held by Jim Webb…and even if Webb were tabbed by Obama and then became VP, Kaine would have to appoint a successor, and the special election for the balance of the term would not be until 2010…and no matter what the tea leaves say for 2008, the other senate seat is not up until 2014…and it may be held by a Democrat. I doubt he could get another nod to run for governor, and the Richmond area is represented in great part by two popular incumbents (Scott and Cantor), so there is no electoral op there.

That leaves appointed office. My pals at TC speculate would Kaine take an appointed slot and raise Bill Bolling to governor, allow him to run as an incumbent, and give the GOP a big leg up in the 2009 elections? He might, but it would have to be for VP. If the nominee of the party comes to you and says please help me lead the country, I bet he would be forgiven for accepting the nod. But a cabinet position? I bet just as much the other way, that if he leaves office for the cabinet he will not be forgiven for giving up the governor’s mansion.

So, with no real opportunities or options for higher elected office on his own, all that is left is an appointed position. It has to be the VP slot…he will be forgiven for accepting that. But if he leaves the governorship for the cabinet, that will burn his bridges for elected office for a lonnnnnnggggggg time.

So it is the national ticket, or a long lucrative legal career with a big name law firm.

You heard it here first.

Tim Kaine: Still just an Old School Marm…with Ambition

In the midst of the the 2007 Virginia General Assembly session I blogged about our Governor, Tim Kaine, and his transportation failures. I suggested that while he tried to portray himself as a fearless samurai, he was really something else:

But the GOP [offered a plan], and the Democrats did not. Now Governor Kaine [unhappy with the plan] is running around like an old time school marm who gives an assignment, gives the students freedom to complete the assignment as they see fit, and then pitches a hissy fit when things are not done as she envisioned it being done…At a time when we need leadership, we instead get an old school marm…bitter that she is not more appreciated, tolerated only because of the office held, and never to be remembered fondly or respectfully.

Here we are now sixteen months later, and nothing has changed…except Kaine has dug himself an even deeper hole.

The legislature is in special session to discuss transportation funding. By all accounts, there are multiple parties involved-there is the House of Delegates, a couple of different factions in the state Senate, and then there is TheGov, who apparently is having trouble getting his own plans introduced.

While the GOP want a variation of the 2007 plan, and Dick “I Do It My Way” Saslaw has his own plan to introduce focusing on increases in the gas tax, titling fees, etc., Governor Kaine just wants a billion dollar tax increase. While it is a bit much to say he has been abandoned by his allies, clearly there is a stench about TheGov caused by his interference in the Va-11 primary, his willingness to intervene in capital murder cases, and his regressive tax schemes.

Unfortunately, while the public wants improvements the two parties, and our leadership deficient governor, do not get the picture.

Many times I have written that no plan will go through until the state shows that everything has been done to wring all possible value from the funds currently being spent on transportation. Nothing special, some Ross Perot charts should do the trick. Instead, the new plans-and especially the governor’s plan-draws comments like this:

I don’t suppport any tax increases until I see that they are using what they have efficiently. I see 4 state trucks and 10 workers at a work site and one person (if that) working. I see good roads repaved and bad roads ignored. They take two weeks to do a two day job. A major overhaul of VDOT needs to be done before they get another dime.

No one is going to jump up for new taxes until they are convinced the most bang is beign gotten for the current buck.

But it may be that Governor Kaine doesn’t want a solution. Some have suggested that he is more interested in scoring political points and putting the GOP behind the electoral eight ball than in making progress.

That may be…but if he is really thinking that, he forgets two things:

1. Come the next state election, folks are going to remember that the Democrats held the governor’s mansion and one house of the legislature and couldn’t agree on a plan…as opposed to their previous strategy of not offering a plan and watching the GOP implode. This proposition is not likely to be as politically strong for Kaine; and
2. His not-so-vague longings for a place in the Obama administration are hurt with every misstep he takes. Obama has to be aware that Kaine became governor less on his own merits than on the strengths and failures of others. Couple that with a feckless and ineffectual term as governor, no matter how personally likeable you might be, and suddenly Kaine needs a win to stay in the spotlight; and
3. There is that little matter of a GOP Lt. Governor who will become governor of Virginia if Kaine gets an admin sinecure. Is TheGov’s presence such an overwhelming presence that Obama would turn over the Virginia governor’s mansion to the other party just to bring “Timmy!” on board?

All in all, I doubt it…

Bottom line, things have not changed since February 2007. Kaine is still the old school marm I described in Februrary 2007, only now he has ambition. Unfortunately, that ambition ain’t getting him anywhere.

The ironic part of this is that the advice he needs has been sitting there, waiting to be absorbed, and it is in an essay about his father-in-law.

The Governor’s of Virginia 1860-1978 is a book published in 1982 and offers short bios on the Virginia governors elected or selected from 1860-1973, concluding with Mills Godwin’s second term. Included is an essay by J. Harvie Wilkinson on Governor Lynwood Holton. Wilkinson summarizes Holton’s career-an administrative triumph and a political disaster-by saying that in to move on in politics it is not enough simply to govern well, one must also mind the store politically.

Holton did not do this, and his aspirations to be tapped as VP in 1972 and then to get the GOP Senate nod in 1978 all came to naught. It was another variation on what my father has said about politics being about how well you do two things…”Gettin’ it and doin’ it”.

Apparently TheGov has not learned from the example of his father-in-law…and if he continues on this path he will find his place in history along with those cold, gray men who achieved high office through the efforts of others, and was unable to make things happen for themselves in either the statute books or at the ballot box.

Deeds v. Moran-Are the Blogosphere Lines Already Drawn?

It seems the the relative harmony of the NOVA Demo blogosphere is over.  Now that LB3 has lost, posts today on two separate Democratic blogs show suggest the lines in next year’s democratic gubernatorial selection process may already be drawn.

This suggestion is due to recent polling on next year’s Virginia Gubernatorial campaign.  The polling shows:

Bob McDonnell- 32%
Creigh Deeds- 27%
Undecided- 40%

Bob McDonnell- 33%
Brian Moran- 27%
Undecided- 39%

OK-over a year out from the election these seem somewhat ordinary numbers.  However at NLS Ben sings out:

“Bad News For Creigh Deeds”

Why? Deeds has run statewide, spent a bazillion bucks, and is no better off than Delegate Moran who has not run statewide or spent as much.

Digest this, then head to RK, where the lead item on the poll states in its commentary:

“These numbers are a HUGE boost to Creigh Deeds”

The logic?  These numbers prove that rumors of a Moran lead are gross exaggerations…

These contrasting posts lead me to two thoughts:
1. The battle lines are already being drawn for 2009 in the Virginia Democracy, and we will likely be treated to a continued series of contrasting analysis of polls, voting patterns, and the like. I suspect this could be the most interesting and sub rosa contentious Democratic contest since Gerry Baliles, Dick Davis, and Richard Bagley duked it out in 1985…have those lines already been drawn in the blogosphere?

2. We have a Presidential election going on, not to mention a US Senate race and a full slate of congressional races. Anybody who thinks this poll is gospeh, and that folks are already focused on next year’s races is fooling themselves…

Random Thoughts…

Today is the first day this month I have not started the day with some kind of painkiller, so my thinking is relatively lucid albeit remarkably unfocused…so just a few thoughts.

First, SenKen needs to buy new shirts.  See the photoblogging from the Fifth District GOP convention. My time in retail taught me that men with longer necks need to wear a higher shirt collar than others to camouflage the neck length-otherwise you get the weather vane look.

Cooch, trust me on this-you need a higher collar.

Item next, Jason Cook performed on “American Idol” last night, and made a marvelous statement about the dangers of self-indulgent behavior. It is a lesson that is of benefit to anyone who makes or hopes to make their livelihood through communication of ideas.

There comes a time-and Jason has been in the middle of it for several weeks-where one has to decide if they want to focus on what they want to focus on or if perhaps they should focus on what their audience wants to focus on. Jason refuses to leave the comfort of his goofy rasta coffee house vibe. If it were a planned decision to take advantage of a perceived fan base, well…that’s one thing. More likely it is a simple unwillingness to try other styles or techniques that some viewers/voters might be interested in. The interest in staying in your comfort zone and doing only what you want or like despite the need to stretch is indulgent behavior.

We see this every day…the salesman who tries to sell you something because they like it-even though the customer clearly is not thrilled; the restauranteur who insists on putting certain favorite items on the menu even though they don’t sell and lose him money; the politician who regularly drives off message because he has an urge to touch on a particular topic, and in doing so diminishes his overall message.

We are surrounded by the indulgence, but Jason Castro is a most telling example…Starbucks Coffee is another one. As the campaigns stretch forth this fall, it will be interesting to see which candidates indulge their indulgences…

As much as Ben Tribbett and others may hate to hear it, I do believe the pant suited lady is singing for Hillary Clinton. She is about out of runway, about out of money, and running short on time. So let me suggest the model for her to follow now-Ted Kennedy 1980. Kennedy finished strong against an incumbent president. He translated this into a primo speaking slot at the convention, gave a memorable speech (often called his “Defense of Liberalism” speech), and moved from the role of presidential aspirant to Senate player and then powerhouse.

Senator Clinton can at this point fight it out to the convention or sulk in her tent, either of which helps the GOP…or she can begin to unify the demo’s and stake out her position as a major party player and capitol hill powerhouse. Maybe it isn’t head of the executive branch, but as can be seen in bios of the great legislators the ability to effectively move legislation to passage is a rare gift. Those that have it have power and influene beyond the title of their office.  Hillary, give it some thought…

Finally-if you are making chili and have the choice between Giant ground beef or Giant Chili Meat, use the latter…the thicker cut beef seems to hold moisture and spices better!

And it is now 1000 hours, and still no pain killers today…let’s hope it keeps up!

Done Wrong by Coochian Technology

Virginia state Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37), a/k/a “The Cooch” and “SenKen” invited me to participate in a blogger conference call today.

I had hoped to report the ins and outs and happenings of what promised to be a prelude to an announcement of his candidacy for Attorney General of Virginia.

Instead, I can only offer a very different report.

 Truth be told, I almost was not invited even though I am a blogger and a constituent…apparently the staff thought I was a Democrat.  That idea was dispelled, I was sent the number and the access code, and at 1158 I dialed in…and was greeted by the Cooch himself!

In a spirit of good fellowship, I said “Is this Ken Cuccinelli, the next Attorney General of Virginia?”  Response, “Yep”.

Since it was just the two of us, he decided to try the “mute” feature for the conference call  to see if it worked…and if “working means” it was to cut me off from speaking to him.  He muted, I heard a message that I was muted, he came back on, and he could not hear me.

I can only think my wife will be ordering one of these soon.

He announced he was calling back in, and somehow I got cut off.  I called back in, got access, heard some voices-none of whom could hear me-and was again cut off.

This time the redial attempt(s) on the land line were not successful.  Each attempt led, after a long silent pause, to the
“fast busy” tone that typically means the system is loaded down or some technical difficulty is being enjoyed.

I attempted to reconnect using my cell phone, and was told that all circuits were engaged.

So, it appears that I have reclaimed the time intended to be on the conference call to post a blog piece about how I was excluded from the conference call due to Coochian selected technology.

It has been quite a few days…Judy Feder wants money to respond to GOP attacks but cannot tell us what the attacks were, Cooch’s staff somehow thinks I am a Democrat (Lowell still is amazed by this), and then SenKen’s tinkering  allows him to cut me off from a conference call he invited me to be part of…normally it takes me several hours, bad singing, and lots of grain products to get me evicted from an event… 

…This is all before I get to talking about the upcoming arthroscopic surgery.

As they used to say on Hee Haw:

Doom, despair, and agony on me
Deep dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all
Doom, despair, and agony on me!

Had I been allowed to participate, I would have asked about geographic balance and what the GOP  must do to get better numbers in Northern Virginia (among other questions)…now, I will simply sit and think on what might have been.

Whatever happens on the conference call, a good luck from here to my state senator on his apparent and tentatice upcoming candidacy!

Gilmore Reaps What He Sows…

Former Governor and potential GOP senate nominee Jim Gilmore and his allies put the screws to Tom Davis last December by selecting a convention to pick the 2008 GOP nominee to replace John Warner.  Seems like Davis is getting the last laugh…and if not Davis, then certainly Lowell seems to be.

The WaPo reports that the candidacy of Delegate Bob Marshall is showing surprising strength. The article goes on to talk about how Marshall is showing unanticipated strength, especially in rural areas that were thought to be the backbone of a Gilmore effort.

An unbriefed observer may think “how can a 9-term delegate even begin to run even with a former AG and Governor?”

Good question…and although I think Gilmore will win the nomination, let me suggest some fertile ground where Marshall should be able to make hay.

1. Marshall is actually to the right of Gilmore in the Right-to-Life realm. Gilmore’s position essentially dovetails with Roe v. Wade, where a woman has the right to an abortion in the first trimester. Marshall is against abortion almost completely, although I think he does not oppose it if the life of the mother is in danger-sort of the Cuccinelli position.

2. Gilmore did not get the car tax eliminated, he changed the car tax calculation once he was elected, and state spending rose under him. Despite his protestations to the contrary, Gilmore bathed in the IT-explosion money that was coming into the state pre-2001 and the related filled state coffers. Gilmore talked a good game as a fiscal conservative, but did not really walk the walk.

3. The personal touch, where Marshall is a clear winner…

First off, Marshall is a sense a throwback legislator. As the WaPo story puts it:

Marshall, despite what some regard as his extreme views, is well-liked by moderates and even Democrats, who admire his collegiality, intellect and principled stands, even when they’re not popular. Marshall also charms his colleagues in a way that Gilmore does not.

An example of Marshall at work…when Bob first ran in the GOP primary back in 1991 in the new 13th district, he was going door-to-door when he caught my father puttering about in the yard. They started talking, and the subject hit abortion. My father is pro-choice, but as a physician has a scientific and also a libertarian perspective on it. Marshall could have gingerly extracted himself from a conversation with my father on the matter when it came up…instead they talked for at least thirty minutes. No minds were changed, but Dad came away thinking Marshall was bright and doctrinaire with out being domineering or insulting.

Gilmore acted as if any act of opposition was an act of treason or of evil. His popularity in the GOP has been based solely on the fact that he won elections, and not on any degree of personal magnetism or being liked. Now it looks like some of those nasty eggs he lobbed at other people are not hatching in ways he did not anticipate.

As noted, despite all this stuff, Gilmore will likely win a sizeable majority in the May convention. Of course, if the Tom Davis folks back Marshall to put the screws to Jim Gilmore, and if delegates who were done wrong by Gilmore at some point vote for Marshall, and folks who are unhappy they still pay a car tax vote against Gilmore, it could get interesting.

Funny thing, though…Gilmore would surely crush Marshall in a primary, the same primary he sought so fervently to avoid.

Well, as the good book says, that which ye sow so shall ye reap…