Myrtle Beach, Tim Kaine, and Contrarian Thinking

Team Bwana, having feverishly rushed through school supply purchase, is at Myrtle Beach testing the truth of the observation “a bad day at the beach beats a good day at work.”

The observation…is true.

Now that the boomerang weather phenomenom known as Tropical Storm/Hurricane Faye will likely not rip through the Grand Strand-thus guaranteeing SWMBO and the WMD much more beach time-I have had some time to ruminate on the possibility of Tim Kaine for VP.

While I don’t think it will happen, I am starting to see not only how it might happen but how it is not a good thing for the Va GOP.

Call this the contrarian school of thought.

First, as I have noted previously, Tim Kaine has gotten to where he is through a marvelous run of luck…and as any card player knows, when the cards are running your way you have to play big.  Next, Kaine and Obama just seem to mesh.  They seem to be sympatico in a way that has not been present between Pres and VP in, well…maybe ever.  Third, Kaine does not bring a large school of detractors.  The national electorate will likely give little focus to the lack of leadership that Kaine has provided as governor, and Kaine may well be the one person that can be added to the ticket without detracting somehow from Obama.

If he is tabbed, and Obama wins, then Bill Bowling becomes governor.  I suspect that Kaine will resign as governor as soon as possible.  Why?  To give Bowling as much time as possible not only to be governor but to become identified with whatever problems face the electorate in the 2009 elections. 

I have to wonder come 2009 will folks readily remember that the democrats held the governor’s mansion from 2002-2008?  Will the lack of leadership or memorable legislation beyond the Warner tax increase of 2005 be recalled?  Will voteres recollect how time and again refused to lead on transportation and other issues, instead hoping the GOP would implode in the General Assembly and allow the democrats to win at the ballot box…

…OR…

Will voters go to the ballot box, be aware of the problems, and see that a Republican is in the governor’s mansion?

Call me crazy, but sand, surf, cool breezes, and a Corona or two does cause one to reconsider the contrarian view of life.

I just have to wonder…

Well, the tide is heading out and “Summertime is calling me” for another “Myrtle Beach Day”.

And when I have a chili dog at the OD Pavillion…I will be thinking of you in the blogosphere!

Kaine Must Hope for VP…

Tim Kaine has spent many weeks out of state ignoring his elected responsibilities and instead campaigning for Barack Obama…that is because if he wants his political career to continue, he has to get the VP nod.

Kaine is racking up an unenviable record as governor.  He seems to have no real strength in his party, no real pull with the legislature, and has neither the longstanding popular support of Mark Warner or even the bubble popularity once held by Jim Gilmore.  TheGov does not have a record that would get him an automatic reelection…which leads to some interesting speculation on his future plans.

Think of it…once he leaves office, what happens?  One senate seat is held by Jim Webb…and even if Webb were tabbed by Obama and then became VP, Kaine would have to appoint a successor, and the special election for the balance of the term would not be until 2010…and no matter what the tea leaves say for 2008, the other senate seat is not up until 2014…and it may be held by a Democrat. I doubt he could get another nod to run for governor, and the Richmond area is represented in great part by two popular incumbents (Scott and Cantor), so there is no electoral op there.

That leaves appointed office. My pals at TC speculate would Kaine take an appointed slot and raise Bill Bolling to governor, allow him to run as an incumbent, and give the GOP a big leg up in the 2009 elections? He might, but it would have to be for VP. If the nominee of the party comes to you and says please help me lead the country, I bet he would be forgiven for accepting the nod. But a cabinet position? I bet just as much the other way, that if he leaves office for the cabinet he will not be forgiven for giving up the governor’s mansion.

So, with no real opportunities or options for higher elected office on his own, all that is left is an appointed position. It has to be the VP slot…he will be forgiven for accepting that. But if he leaves the governorship for the cabinet, that will burn his bridges for elected office for a lonnnnnnggggggg time.

So it is the national ticket, or a long lucrative legal career with a big name law firm.

You heard it here first.

Will Obama and Casey Break the Rules in PA?

Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania will today endorse Barack Obama. Obama nation is thrilled about this.

My question-Will they destroy a truism in doing so?

In all walks of life there are aphorisms, truisms, and accepted wisdom held to be true due to long experience-to the point where they are considered something more than a rule but less than a law. But rules are meant to be broken.

One rule in politics is that a US Senator cannot be elected president-too much time in Washington, too many procedural votes to tie them up, etc. In fact, that is likely one reason that Obama ran this year instead of waiting.

Well, there are three fighters left in the ring, and all have U.S. Senator in front of their names. One rule down.

Another rule concerns the value of the endorsement of a U.S. Senator. While it is better to have folks with you than against you, history has shown time and again that typically it is the governor who has more political control than the US Senators. There are some exceptions (the Byrd Machine being one), but numerous candidacies from Dick Russell to Ed Muskie and on to the present have assumed that support of US Senators gave them great chances in a given state, only to find that a governor the candidate didn’t have in his camp had already wired the state for the opposition.

So, will Obama and Casey break the rule that says that Governor’s have more pull within a state than a US Senator does?

There may be another rule in play, analogous to that in the Princess Bride of “don’t get involved in land war in Asia!”…and that rule is “Presidential contenders should stay out of a state party’s internal politics”

Ed Rendell, Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania, has long been in Hillary’s corner. His support is one of the reasons Pennyslvania has been considered part of the Clinton Firewall. I do wonder about the whole “Casey Democrats” thing, though…I thought they were called “Casey Democrats” because of Senator Casey’s father, a former Governor of Pennsylvania, for whom Ed Rendell was the natural successor. Moreover, there are aspects to this effort as being more than just a fight between Obama and Clinton…it also has aspects of being a backyard throwdown between PA’s two biggest Dems to see just who is the biggest kid in the playground.

Rendell defeated Casey for the Democratic nod for governor in 2002, and was reelected in 2006. He will have been out of office for two years when Casey comes up for reelection. I have to wonder how much of the Casey endorsement is an effort of sorts to head off a Rendell candidacy in 2012.

Just another twist and turn to an already interesting year…

Huckabee at the Rubicon

In 49 BC Julius Caesar violated Roman law and crossed over the River Rubicon with his legions.  The act was considered treasonable and could have cost Caesar his life.  Instead he led his armies to victories over his enemies and became the leader of the Roman Empire.

In the wake of getting swept in yesterday’s Chesapeake Primaries, Mike Huckabee has reached his own Rive Rubivon, a line of demarcation between two clear courses of action that potentially lead to two different futures.

Huckabee is the only real opposition John McCain still faces.  Ron Paul and the like are still on the ballot, but together they got less than 10% of the vote yesterday.  Huckabee is the only candidate in the field who can slow McCain’s progress to the nomination, and the only one who can potentially defeat him primaries.

The Rubicon Huckabee faces can be summed up in the immortal words of The Clash: “Should I Stay or Should I Go?”

Huckabee has only a statistical chance at the nomination.  It would require sweeping the field with somewhere north of 65% in every remaining state.  Staying in only hurts McCain and makes him use resources now he could use in the general.  No matter how much Huckabee pops off bon mots like “I didn’t major in math, I majored in miracles.”  But Huckabee is now playing a very earthy and not very miraculous game, so he does not care about McCain’s finances-that is not part of the game he is playing.

Huckabee’s game is now has an end date of 2012 or 2016, not 2008.

He knows by now that it is highly likely that McCain will not approach him about the VP slot.  Bringing on an evangelical former minister is not likely to impress the independents that McCain will need in November.  Also, bringing Huckabee on board is not likely to increase conservative turnout.  Those that turn out will do so because they think the demo nominee is so much worse than McCain they cannot sit it out (perhaps because of Supreme Court nominations, etc.), and those that think a liberal Democrat is preferable to a “moderate” Republican will sit it out.

No, Huckabee wants to emerge from this as the new face and voice of GOP conservatism, the new Reagan.  It will help if he has enough oomph to help write the platform or get the keynote speaking spot, but the big goal is to come out of this as the voice of conservatism for 2012.  Staying in the field, building name ID and an organization and potentially more primaries, seemingly only makes hims stronger for 2012.  As Time reported:

At a press conference [Saturday [February 9] morning, one reporter blurted out what has become for Huckabee a comfortable truth. “Governor, basically you have nothing to lose by staying in,” she called from the back of the scrum. Huckabee paused. “Ah,” he said, before smiling. “No. I don’t guess I do.”

That goal has pushed Huckabee to the Rubicon he now faces.  How much longer can he stay in the race before he is seen as less a serious candidate who represents a segment of the party and more a malicious spoiler who is in for ego and to weaken McCain enough that the GOP loses in 2008 allowing Huckabee another shot in 2012?

Another consideration…how many people are voting for him less because they support him but as a protest vote against McCain? Can he safely assume that 40% of the GOP in Virginia supported him because he was their pick, or because he was the best option left whose name did not start with “McCain”?

If he has not come to the river, he can certainly see it from where he currently stands. Much of his future options depeneds on what he does in the next month. If he stays in too long, and McCain loses, then foru years from now there will be all types of GOP who will forget the tribal wars of 2008 but will remember the idea that Huckabee stayed in too long and damaged McCain.

It is smart politics to play the good sport and do now what he will eventually have to do, anyway. Here is how I think he will do it. I think he will announce prior to Texas that he is suspending his campaign. That way his supporters in Texas can still vote for him, and frankly scoring 40% or more for a suspended campaign will be tremendously impressive. He already has done well enough to ensure himself a prime time speech.

Enjoy the speech, and take notes, because we haven’t seen the last of Mike Huckabee…but his prospects for the future are going to ride in no small part on how  well and how soon he chooses to cross his own presidential rubicon.

NOVA Virginia Campaigns Overflow with Cash and Questions

Last night was the deadline to report end of year financial figures for candidates for the US House of Representives, which combined with recent developments offer some surprises in Va-10 and Va-11.

The fundraising pace continued at a torrid pace in the Tenth, where Congressman Wolf surged ahead of Judy Feder in cash on hand and brought the heat in his quarterly effort.  As of today’s reports:

Tenth District:                               Q4 2007                                   On hand             Liabilities                  Net

Congressman Frank Wolf            $392,516.00                            $555,250.94     (No liabilities)     $555,250.94

Judy Feder                                     $241,458.08                            $483,002.91    (No liabilities)       $483,002.91

Each has an announced primary opponent, but Democrat Mike Turner has a net of  $12,904.47 in the bank and Republican Vernon McKinley-who for some reason does not have an electronic report that is easily found-has less than $3K net (both have loans in place), so we will not get into details.

Meanwhile, life continued apace in the Eleventh, where Fimian carries big totals and liabilities, Davis has a big roll leftover, and the Democrats are yet to pound out the dollars.

Eleventh District:                           Q4 2007                                   On hand             Liabilities                     Net

Congressman Tom Davis              $197,444.58                              $305,189.54     (No liabilities)        $305,189.54

Keith Fimian                                   $126,076.00                              $656,191.75      [-$327,000.00]   $329,191.75

Leslie Byrne                                    $115,398.01                                $103,911.95      (No liabilities)      $103,911.95

Doug Denneny                                  $19,460.98                                $13,917.07         (No liabilities)        $13,917.07

Gerry Connolly                              [No report...rumored $161,000.00 in bank for this race]

—I apologize for the less than orderly columns…still don’t have the hang of doing that in WordPress—

Yes, I know there is a Va-8, but I am willing to guess that seat will stay democrat in 2008…so I left them off.

What caught my eye?

First I noticed the net of Keith Fimian in Va-11.  While his fundraising skills are highly touted, the fact remains that his net is half as much as his cash on hand, and no one seems to be talking about the more than quarter of a million dollar liability he is carrying.  Just how good a fundraiser will he prove out to be?  If he is able to self finance, OK…but remember (as James Socas learned) there is a millionaire’s amendment, so he best be careful.

Tom Davis, while pouring money into JMDD campaign, still has a sizeable amount in the bank.  I imagine no small part of it will find its way back into the Va-11 campaign.

I assume that with Davis out of the way and Va-11 an open seat the DCCC will declare this a targeted seat and whoever gets the nomination will have massively adequate fundraising…but I am guessing LB3 and Gerry C will have to raise at least another $100,000.00 each to be competitive, and likely more.  As for Denneny, I don’t see how he doesn’t get washed out by a wave of greenbacks.

Question: How debilitating and cost will the Democratic primary be?  If it gets nasty, and large $$ has to be spent, then the $$ edge the GOP can generate by getting behind a candidate early could be significant.

Meanwhile, over in the 10th, I have a hunch Ms. Feder is about to be a victim of her own fundraising success.

Now, Lowell will likely draft one of his Federian spin pieces regardless of what I say at this point.  However, we all know the basics.  Feder stayed even with Congressman Wolf in 2006 and got whacked by 16 points in a democratic year.  We all know about incumbency, constituent services, the district boundaries.  Also in 2006 Ms. Feder got added onto target campaign lists due to some polling that ultimately missed the mark.

Now in 2008 she has again constructed a good fundraising operation.  However, there is now an open seat in Va-11 that will likely be the marquee race in Virginia. 

And if that is not enough, there is the small matter of Va-2, where Glenn Nye will run against GOP incumbent Thelma Drake. Drake won narrowly against Phil Kellam in 2006 despite massively out-raising him.

Question: What will be more attractive to democratic contributors? Give money to take an open seat, to defeat a weak incumbent, or to a candidate who has already lost-and by a sizeable margin? Will they look at the ease with which she has raised money to the moment, and decide she doesn’t need their help and that their dollars will have more of a bang elsewhere?

I don’t know on either count, but it sure does make for interesting prognosticating…because asking the question is always easier than knowing the definitive answer.

We shall see!

Another take on Convention v. Primary…

We all know that part of the decision behind the Tom Davis retirement is the selection of a convention over a primary to decide the Va GOP senate nominee for 2008.  But this was all well and good for many, who took great pains to talk about the benefit of conventions over primaries.

This is a point with which I disagree.  My experience is that the name ID generated by a primary and building of general election networks outweighs the campaign costs of a primary and also does not generate the intra-party anger that comes with a contested convention fight.

Today, I was reminded of another benefit.  Peter Beinart writes in today’s WaPo about the Democratic nominating fight, and what damage might be brought to each candidate.  He notes:

But when there’s no incumbent, a tough primary challenge doesn’t tell you anything about a candidate’s chances in November. Yes, nasty contests can leave the losers’ supporters embittered and less likely to turn out in the general election. (They can also expose vulnerabilities that are later exploited by the other side.) But heated primary battles also mobilize voters, some of whom stay mobilized even if their party nominates someone else. Many of the people who got involved in Democratic politics because of Howard Dean in 2004, for instance, worked to elect John Kerry in the fall.

I added the underline…

A pity the GOP will not have the benefit of a primary to mobilize voters for the fall election…which we would have enjoyed had a different road been chosen by the State Central Committee.

Will Bill Clinton Become the New Harry Truman?

As we let the Florida political ads wash over us, we also watched the stories about Bill Clinton attacking Barack Obama, trying to use the right code words to get those so inclined to vote against Obama for being black, for being unable to win, or just because Obama ain’t Hillary.

Bill had that fierce look he gets when he has his back pushed to the wall, much like the deposition where he popped off with “I didn’t have sex with that woman”…all righteous indignation and pointing finger.

Clinton never had a problem with going blast furnace hard against those who opposed him, but I wonder if his attacks will turn him into the new Harry Truman.

No, I don’t mean the Harry Truman who drew the line in Korea and called the Turnip Congress into special session or who stood up to striking steel workers.

I mean the Harry Truman of 1956.

Harry Truman could have run again in 1952, but saw he could not win-and as a loyal democratic got out of the way after almost eight years in the White House.  Truman came out for Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois, a gifted orator who won the nomination (in great part due to the Truman activity) then was trounced by Ike Eisenhower in the general election.

Four years later Stevenson wanted another shot at Ike, and campaigned for the nomination-this time facing and defeating Estes Kefauver in critical primaries.  Problem is Harry had decided that Adlai was a little to smart for his own good and would get whacked again-so Harry started pushing for Averril Harriman, Governor of NY.  Harry even traveled to the Democratic convention to blast Stevenson and push Harriman.

It was all for naught.  Adlai won the nod, and threw the VP choice open for the delegates to make.  Harriman did not get the second spot.

Truman became the crotchety figure the press went to for a comment damning the GOP, but he was no longer considered a serious player in party politics or policy.

Bill Clinton has filled the role of former president very well, and I think he diminishes himself by being the attack dog.  There are other folks who should be doing that for Hillary C.  Bill should be on the high ground, arguing that Hillary is the real change candidate…not that she necessarily is, but that is what he should be doing.

Dick Morris has many Newsmax.com screeds against the Clintons.  His drumbeat against them is so so constant that his postings should be counted as some kind of in-kind contribution to Barack Obama…but he called this one a month ago. Bill Clinton in partisan posture always runs second to Bill Clinton taking the high road.

I have to agree with him on this one, and I have a hunch that by the time this campaign is over Bill Clinton’s partisan posturing will remove much of the luster from his post presidential prestige.

Bwana’s Political View from Florida…

We returned yesterday from “The Happiest Place in the World”, and came back with some new views and opinions…including a few on the political contest taking place today.

We were inundated with the Primary Air War.  Over the almost six days we were down there (from 1700 on 1.22.2008 to 1000 on 1.28.200 I saw 14 McCain ads, a dozen for Romney, and a half dozen each for Huckabee and for Giuliani.  Understand these were typically repetitions of the same spots.   McCain focused on defense, Romney on Administrative competence, Huckabee on the “Fair Tax”, and Rudy G on his record of 9/11 and his tax cuts as mayor of NOO YAWK CITY.

Before you dismiss that number, consider that we only saw the tube for about an hour in the AM before hitting the parks, and then another hour in the evening while the family cooled down before baths and bed…so to get that much during fairly limited viewing hours seemed like fairly heavy advertising.

The news we were getting just gives me the feel that McCain wins today.  Of course, I was the guy who said Tom Davis would run again, so I know how much cred I am carrying as a predictor.  I just have hunch that Romney is not going to do as well as he needs to do with the Rock Ribbed conservatives…I think they are going to look at his current positions, and see how much he has changed them recently, and decide they are better off with someone with whom they disagree on certain issues but know he is consistent in his views.

Huckabee needs the big panhandle conservative vote, but he is focusing on his “Fair Tax” plan…and I have seen nothing to suggest he is breaking out.

Rudy?  Well, I like Rudy.  I think he would be a good president and a cool hand in a crisis, but among the Kerik catastrophe and the stories of temper and petulance, and the marriages, and his failure to engage and contest prior to Florida-well, let’s just say my “Rudy 2008″ baseball cap is going to become a collectible a lot faster than I anticipated.

What If Iowa Leaves Me Rudy-less?

Well, the 2008 Iowa caucus has passed into history, and I find myself yet again casting about for a candidate…and the GOP field, while all have multiple strengths, has yet to excite me.  Well, except for Rudy, and after Iowa I think he be in more trouble than he realized.

I had settled on Rudy as a result of his strength in the days of 9/11, his crime busting record, and his time as Mayor of NY.  After reading Prince of the City, I thought this guy has the stuff to step into a situation and take control of it. I know the record was not pleasing to everyone, but I liked what I saw.

But I was unsure of his strategy of essentially taking a pass until Florida. It was the old inside straight strategy, a risky contrivance at best. Then you read even high level analysis of the Florida electorate (such as this one by AIAW), and my concerns become less about his political ability than his political viability.

Then came Iowa…and when a candidate scores 3%, you have to wonder. We always knew Rudy was going to take it in the chops in the Hawkeye State. Rudy claims to be running ahead in lots of big states…and that come February 5 he will leap into the lead. So, at some level all is well.

But 3%? That is below what I thought he would do.

But while ruminating on the way in this AM, I realized that while my concerns about Rudy are bothersome what is equally bothersome is that no one else in the field really leaps out to seize my attention as a #2 choice.

Huckabee will be impressive on the stump, but his tax ’til you drop view of government is not consistent with GOP doctrine. Also, I remember Mike Dukakis and Willie Horton. I suspect Huckabee’s pardon’s and the deaths that followed will be grist for the campaign mill both in terms of leadership qualities and judgement.  Can you say “Willie Horton”?

Romney’s Mormonism does not not concern me…his seeming lack of genuine commitment to any idea does. He seems to have had so many changes of opinion that they out to call his campaign busses “Saul”, “Road”, and “Damascus”. He is incredibly lucky-his “tar baby” comment could have been as devestating as his father’s “brainwash” comment in 1968.

That leaves Thompson and McCain.  The former doesn’t seem to be running for office…genially strolling is more like it.  I tend to like folks who, once they commit, want to take the hill.  McCain…well, he didn’t excite me in 2000, and he really doesn’t do it for me now…except for his brief stint as a SNL host.

Rudy can clearly still do it, but by putting off serious heat until 2.5.2008…and if his strategy combined with early losses leaves me Rudy-less, it also leaves me rudderless.

I can vote for any of these guys, but they aren’t as yet firing me up…and I have to wonder if that is the case with other folks, too.

The Gilmore Problem

Earlier this week former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore formally announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination for the 2008 US Senate election. His announcement makes his candidacy real and not hypothetical, and should again cause Virginia Republicans to strongly consider who should be the party standard bearer next year. I suggest it should be someone other than Jim Gilmore.

It has been suggested that I am part of an Any Candidate but Gilmore group. This is not accurate. I have written both of Gilmore’s strengths and also how I think his temperment is not what is needed in the US Senate.

If I fall into an acronym group, it is SOTDOG…”Someone Other than Davis or Gilmore”. I lay out the reasons for this here, and seeminly long before anyone else suggested Eric Cantor as a reasonable alternative that would still let all three men be on the ballot in 2008.

The truth is that Cantor will not run for the US Senate. In the wake of JMDD loss to Chap!, Tom Davis has disappeared. We don’t know if he sulks in his tent like Achilles or hides in a cave like Robert the Bruce and plans his next campaign, but we know he won’t be on the Senate ballot next year.

That leaves Brother Jim…and a variety of of reactions.

Some on the Democratic side are so eager for a Gilmore candidacy they claim a search for a new candidate is a betrayal. It isn’t. Many like myself have, while noting Gilmore’s strength’s, have just as readily suggested he has too many chinks in his armor to be a strong candidate against Mark Warner. Others bloggers were Davis guys who were already disenchanted with Gilmore, so seeking a different candidate is just good politics…you know, sort of like seeking a relatively unknown former Marine to run against a long time party regular for the party Senate nomination.

Othe Democrats point out Jimbo’s weaknesses and penchant for bloviation and for annoying people. Lowell finishes this report with the rhetorical question:

I am amazed that this man was ever elected to anything. Can’t Virginia Republicans do better?

The answer is yes…the question is are they willing to run.

You may ask “Why is Bwana a SOTDOG?” Simply put, I thought the Tom Davis NoVa appeal would not overcome his lack of identity or ideological sympatico with downstate voters…and that was before the “Alabama” comment, and that Jim Gilmore carries too much baggage and will lose the same Nova voters that Davis might have been able to draw in.

What baggage?  It all comes down to one thing…Gilmore is always right-just ask him.  He is tenacious, and that serves as his greatest strength and the root his weaknesses.

His tenaciousness led him to accept and overcome challenges when no one expected him to succeed, from getting into UVa Law School to becoming governor.  However, all that is overshadowed by the contradictions in his record.

To win, he has to be able to explain away the following:

-The bad will he incurred by failing to fully repeal the car tax, no to mention being unable to deliver on his key campaign promise. Why he did not attempt to cut government spending to match the revenue removed by even partial car tax repeal, and why instead did he choose to assume that an expanding business base would make up the difference? Failing that, why did he not seek to identify the funding that would be used to replace the car tax revenues.

-He is pro life within the strictures of Roe against Wade-how will that play with the social conservatives?

-He attempted to insert state government into the Hugh Finn matter…how does that play with the libertarian conservatives?

-He appointed democratic legislators in GOP leaning districts to state positions so the GOP could pick up the seats…how does that play with the ethics police?

Bottom line-Jim Gilmore has given a lot of reasons to vote against him, even if you are with him on ideology.

It has been said that in 2004 no matter what Kerry said, Bush essentially replied “9/11″

Next year, not matter what Gilmore says, Warner will simply say “He failed to repeal the Car Tax”.

So Warner will beat up on Gilmore on executive branch ethics, lobbying ethics, and Iraq…plus the Car Tax non-repeal?

That is why Jim Gilmore is a problem…and why the GOP needs to go elsewhere for its 2008 candidate.  It need not be Cantor, but it needs to be SOTDOG.