Democratic Disappointment, Part 2: Feet of Clay Leaders Do Not Rally Rank and File

While the Virginia Democrats reel from the planned non-leadership of the Warner-Kaine years, they have to carry a bit of the burden themselves, because these are the leaders they chose to follow.

In fact, almost every leader thought to have wings on his heels since the Democrats have followed since Mark Warner took back the Governors Mansion and initiated a Decade of Hope has proven to have feet of clay.

Mark Warner is at the top of the list. He may be the most popular politician in the Commonwealth, but it seems like Karma for the Warner Deception keeps rolling back to him. As noted previously, Warner told GOP legislators that the state needed a tax increase in 2005 to maintain its AAA rating…and when all the revenue receipts were in it was shown that the state would have run a surplus even without the tax increase.

He is in the US Senate, but he has proven to be ineffectual and unable to create a role for himself either inside the Democratic or GOP tents. I wonder if the stories about his conniving as governor have followed him to Washington and left him somehow tainted and limited as to how far he can be trusted.

Then there is Tim Kaine. Tim Kaine, the luckiest politician in Virginia history. This is the guy who led the effort to not offer up a Democratic plan and just let GOP infighting hand power to the Democrats.

Tim Kaine, who not only did not attempt to lead the Dems to power but who’s sudden an and inexplicable endorsement of Gerry Connolly in the 2008 10th Congressional district Democratic primary led the founders of the blog “Raising Kaine” to change the name to “RK”. Kaine stays in the game through the good graces of his benefactor President Obama, but he has long shown that what he accomplishes in politics is the result of good luck, good timing, and good backers…but seldom based on accomplishment.

While it will be something to watch the progressives who orphaned him due to his Connolly endorsement come running back to the fold to support his likely candidacy against George Allen next year.

Next on the line is Senator Jim Webb. Webb’s situation is both the most predictable but also for the Democrats the most painful. After all, he agreed to run for the US Senate in 2006 against a man he endorsed in 2000 and swore to be running as a “populist/progressive/definitely not conservative” type. As a variety of comments at BlueVa show, his recent stands in the Senate confound those who fought so hard to get him into the Senate…but now accord him plaudits like:

“The fact that he’s not running again is par for the course for him. He’s bounced around from position to position for decades, he’s more of a dabbler than a guy who’s going to focus on one thing and do that one thing well. So, it shouldn’t be surprising that he’s bailing on the Senate after one term, and it’s not surprising at all that he hasn’t been more progressive in his nearly 5 years in the Senate.” (NotJohnsMosby, BlueVa 10.12.2011)

That’s the peak of the mountain of leadership discontent the Democrats wrestle with, but it does not end there. The General Assembly is a graveyard of leadership potential for the Democrats. One has to go back to 1989-1992 and Doug Wilder/Leslie Byrne/Robert Moss to find Democrats from the General Assembly elected to statewide or Congressional office. Meanwhile, the current leadership of Ward Armstrong and Dick Saslaw-the leadership that gave the Democrats the “let power fall into our hands”-certainly gives pause

Without a record to run on, it is any surprise that Democratic activists are reduced to pleading for votes not in support of anything, but against the GOP…not against specific GOP legislation, but against some amorphous threat? With leadership discontent like this, is it any wonder the Democrats are having trouble firing up the rank and file?

Of course, some Democratic office holders are more indicative of what the pursuit of pure power has done to the Democrats…but that’s for another time.

Democratic Disappointment, Part 1: Two Dates Too Many

Recently the BlueVa gang bemoaned the low interest in the upcoming statehouse elections, noting the likelihood in a low turnout election that the more dedicated party typically wins. It’s as if he is predicting Democratic disappointment come election day.

How can this be? As recently as two years ago the Democrats held the Governor’s mansion, both US Senate seats, a majority of the Congressional delegation, and a majority in the Virginia Senate. The GOP was on the skids…Obama would rule with a benevolent hand and knowing smile…all was wonderful in Liberal Land.

Only it didn’t quite turn out so nicely. Today the GOP holds all three Virginia statewide offices, a reinforced majority in the House of Delegates, and a majority of the Congressional delegation. The Virginia senators are both Democrats, but Senator Webb has chosen to eschew reelection and Senator Warner the Lesser has shown every sign of following the Chuck Robb Senate path…bright prospects on entrance, followed by a long, slow slide to irrelevance. The Virginia Senate? The GOP is coming on strong even in a chamber reapportioned by the Democrats to favor the Democrats.

How? How could all this happen?

I have some thoughts on the matter. Pull up a chair and sit a spell…

Some might blame it on the highly ineffective presidency of Barack Obama. Others on the economy. But there is more than that…and much closer to home.

In fact, the Democratic malaise in Virginia can be traced back to two dates.  The first important for its duplicity, the second for pulling the curtain back on DPVA intentions.

Date 1: The Warner Deception-2005

Mark Warner wanted a tax increase.  He got it by swearing it was desperately needed to keep the state AAA bond rating. A variety of GOP delegates up and down the ideological spectrum, from Preston Bryant at the moderate end of the spectrum to Harry Parrish at the conservative end, listened to him.   Others, like Jim Dillard, allegedly asked and got more for their vote…but more about that later.

Based on his representation and their belief that the Governor of Virginia would not deceive them, they voted for the tax increase.

Imagine their surprise when it was revealed that the Commonwealth would have run a surplus even without the tax increase. Imagine their further surprise when it was discovered that the Governors staff had overlooked $137 million in funds that were not factored into their analysis.

There were repercussions.  It caused a goodly number of moderate GOP delegates to leave the House.  Some retired (Dillard), some were given government jobs (Bryant).  The fight in the session and in the following primary took a toll on Harry Parrish, who died just after the close of the 2006 General Assembly session.

The result of the Warner Deception?  For Warner, national applause for “working across party lines”.  It also helped yield a more conservative and perhaps more partisan GOP House of Delegates contingent, and one far more wary of working with a Democratic governor-once burned, twice shy.

Date 2: An Unconstitutional Transportation Plan and a Failure to Lead-2007

Short story-GOP overcomes internal division to pass transportation plan in 2007.  Democrats afraid to be left at station jump aboard, giving it bi-partisan support.  Governor signs bill into law.  Plan later found unconstitutional.

That is the short and brutal version-but the overall affect for the Democrats has been longer and beyond brutal.

The GOP in Richmond threatened to rupture along anti-tax lines.  The Democrats chose to hide between the tax plans championed by John Chichester and Russ Potts.  In fact, their entire strategy seemed to be allow the GOP to smash themselves on the rocks of public opinion and slide in and pick up the pieces and power left behind.  Remember, in 2007 the Democrats had just won a US Senate seat and almost picked off the Va-2 seat, Tim Kaine is governor, and a clear democratic tide is sweeping the country.  Yet there was no effort to try to pass a “Democratic” plan in the statehouse, and Governor Kaine did not offer a Democratic vision of where they would lead the state.

Typically the way a party takes back power is to offer its ideas, force recorded legislative votes, then go the public with proof of the opposition to their program, and build a record to show where it will lead the county, state, country, etc.  Not in Virginia-the Democrats just hoped the GOP would crash upon the Scylla of the no tax increase House of Delegates and the Charybdis of Chichester’s tax plans.

Unfortunately, the GOP came up with a plan.  Was it a good plan?  Not really…but it was a plan that relied on penalty and user fees instead of some type of flat out tax increase, and it passed the HOD with bipartisan support.  Governor Kaine was so shocked he held a statewide listening tour before signing off on it in the desperate hope of finding some reason to veto it. Folks like Dave Marsden, who trashed the GOP over funding in articles in the Connection newspapers, came out voting for the plan and justified his vote by saying he would vote in favor of any plan that would gin up more transportation funding.

Alas, Governor Kaine, perfectly happy to not lead, found no rationalization or support to veto the bill, and he signed it into law.

This bipartisan support, and the governor signing, gave the GOP coverage on the funding front.  Moreover, without any real efforts over the previous four years to create a distinct Virginia Democrat brand/identity/platform, there was no way to wage the General Assembly campaign in 2007 with a statewide theme.  Instead, it became a series of local election fights.

The Democrats did take the Senate in 2007-but by the barest of majorities of 21-19.  However, it was-as Wellington said of Waterloo- a “Damned close thing”.  Cuccinelli won by 100 votes, Jill Holtzman Vogel won in Winchester but ran behind much of the night [margin of victory-659 votes out of 51,500 cast] ;  Richard Stuart defeated Democrat Al Pollard to win the seat of the retiring John Chichester, but the margin was 600 votes out of 42,500 cast, and Ralph Smith won his Roanoke Valley seat by 741 votes out of 41,500 cast.  A shift of 2500 votes over these four races and the margin swells to 25-15.

Would a unified state theme of GOP inability and failure have brought in more votes?  Undoubtedly.

This failure to create a record became the gift that keeps on giving.  Barack Obama wins the White House in 2008, basking in thoughts of a new progressive electoral majority.  In 2009 the Virginia Democracy loses the all three statewide races and the GOP gains 6 seats in the House of Delegates.  Apparently the “Bubble Popularity” (as Senator Thomas Benton once said) can be easily exploded by the absence of a party actually standing for something, as opposed to standing simply for opposing the other guys.

The ground work laid by the duplicity of one Democratic governor, the failure to lead by another, and a legislative unwillingness to fight has led to a Democrat Party in Virginia that is lacking in vision or even foundation principles it will fight over.  The GOP is just as lacking in vision, but they have their tax anathema to keep them together.

With all this, is is any wonder that the Democrats are unable to muster enthusiasm?  Nothing to excite the faithful, nothing to fire up the troops?  Not being perceived as standing for anything?  Multiply that with the traditional down cycle in interest in the General Assembly/Constitutional office election year in Virginia’s four year cycle, and what else can be expected?  Shoot, that’s all before we look at the more personal disappointment of the Democrats in their statewide winners…but that’s another story…

…which will be coming soon!

Where’s the Beef?

I keep hearing all these predictions of the GOP scoring HOD gains in excess of five seats, but no one is saying where they are coming from.

James Martin at BlueVA is guessing +3 or 4 GOP gain, and lays out the when/where, but no one else.

So how about it GOP big win guys? As Walter Mondale and Claire Peller said, “Where’s the Beef?”

Where are all these delegate gains coming from?

If they happen later, you can celebrate…but you don’t get to claim you were right unless you can offer chapter and verse before 1900 on which specific seats will get picked up!

Sign Wars-GOP out for Big Stakes

After grabbing the Demo HQ picture last night, I saw something on the way home that pointed out the changed landscape for next Tuesday.

I have seen precious few GOP “ticket” type yard signs.  Each candidate has his own sign style, graphics, coloring, like these:

However, last night I saw a new type of sign…

It appears that the GOP thinks the polling numbers are for real, and that the top of the ticket has real bandwagon possibilities-so much so that Bob McDonnell is now willing to tie himself to specific delegate candidates to use the large numbers at the top of the ticket to pull in some big new numbers in the HOD.

Put Another Poll on the Barbie, Creigh-Down 18 pts at VCU

Adding to the stunning polls released yesterday, today VCU/Commonwealth Poll releases a new poll showing Creigh Deeds 18 points down to Bob McDonnell at a pace of 54-36

The poll shows McDonnell leading in all parts of the state. Yes, all parts of the state, including Northern Virginia (54-38).

Some of the numbers seem really out there, like the tweet from NLS claiming rumors that Deeds internal tracking polls show him down 24 points.

Dems seem to bracing for the worst next week. BlueVa and NLS has reconsidered HOD race outcomes. Chris Cizilla reports that Deeds is cutting back massively on television spending.

The Deeds campaign has apparently cut back to $400K in NoVA television advertising. This amount buys them 400 gross “rating points”, which means average viewer will see Deeds ads four times in a week. The typical buy at this time is for 2000 points, meaning the average viewer sees an ad for a candidate 20 times.

Oh, and the WaPo put the Obama Tidewater Trip on page two of the metro section print edition-hardly big time placement.

Gilmore Reaps What He Sows…

Former Governor and potential GOP senate nominee Jim Gilmore and his allies put the screws to Tom Davis last December by selecting a convention to pick the 2008 GOP nominee to replace John Warner.  Seems like Davis is getting the last laugh…and if not Davis, then certainly Lowell seems to be.

The WaPo reports that the candidacy of Delegate Bob Marshall is showing surprising strength. The article goes on to talk about how Marshall is showing unanticipated strength, especially in rural areas that were thought to be the backbone of a Gilmore effort.

An unbriefed observer may think “how can a 9-term delegate even begin to run even with a former AG and Governor?”

Good question…and although I think Gilmore will win the nomination, let me suggest some fertile ground where Marshall should be able to make hay.

1. Marshall is actually to the right of Gilmore in the Right-to-Life realm. Gilmore’s position essentially dovetails with Roe v. Wade, where a woman has the right to an abortion in the first trimester. Marshall is against abortion almost completely, although I think he does not oppose it if the life of the mother is in danger-sort of the Cuccinelli position.

2. Gilmore did not get the car tax eliminated, he changed the car tax calculation once he was elected, and state spending rose under him. Despite his protestations to the contrary, Gilmore bathed in the IT-explosion money that was coming into the state pre-2001 and the related filled state coffers. Gilmore talked a good game as a fiscal conservative, but did not really walk the walk.

3. The personal touch, where Marshall is a clear winner…

First off, Marshall is a sense a throwback legislator. As the WaPo story puts it:

Marshall, despite what some regard as his extreme views, is well-liked by moderates and even Democrats, who admire his collegiality, intellect and principled stands, even when they’re not popular. Marshall also charms his colleagues in a way that Gilmore does not.

An example of Marshall at work…when Bob first ran in the GOP primary back in 1991 in the new 13th district, he was going door-to-door when he caught my father puttering about in the yard. They started talking, and the subject hit abortion. My father is pro-choice, but as a physician has a scientific and also a libertarian perspective on it. Marshall could have gingerly extracted himself from a conversation with my father on the matter when it came up…instead they talked for at least thirty minutes. No minds were changed, but Dad came away thinking Marshall was bright and doctrinaire with out being domineering or insulting.

Gilmore acted as if any act of opposition was an act of treason or of evil. His popularity in the GOP has been based solely on the fact that he won elections, and not on any degree of personal magnetism or being liked. Now it looks like some of those nasty eggs he lobbed at other people are not hatching in ways he did not anticipate.

As noted, despite all this stuff, Gilmore will likely win a sizeable majority in the May convention. Of course, if the Tom Davis folks back Marshall to put the screws to Jim Gilmore, and if delegates who were done wrong by Gilmore at some point vote for Marshall, and folks who are unhappy they still pay a car tax vote against Gilmore, it could get interesting.

Funny thing, though…Gilmore would surely crush Marshall in a primary, the same primary he sought so fervently to avoid.

Well, as the good book says, that which ye sow so shall ye reap…

Parliamentary Immaturity In Richmond

Senate Democrats are having a religious experience.  Some might call it Karma, others would simply quote Galatians 6:7 and say “whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.”  Their days of hiding behind John Chichester are coming back to haunt them, and all they can do is stomp their feet and complain of partisan actions.

How can I say such a thing?  Because of what has transpired in the Senate Finance Committee, and how it reflects on The Gov and the Senate leadership.

The Senate Dems have proposed a state budget with all variety of add ons at a time when Governor Kaine is talking about layoffs and raiding the state “rainy day” fund.  There are a wide variety of things that have been talked about but not done (a new legislative building, for instance) and a collection of Governor Kaine fiscal favorites (expanding state paid pre-K coverage is one).  The budget came up and for a vote in the Senate Finance Committee, and it passed in a straight party line 9-7 vote.

Committee Chairman Chuck Colgan (D-Manassas) was outraged, accusing the GOP members of making it a partisan budget.  SenKen, a committee member, reports that Colgan claimed “the Budget is above politics!…Get politics out of this arena, it doesn’t belong here!”

I guess Colgan believes that no candidates ran for office last fall based on how they thought state money should be spent!   Colgan knows that not a single GOP member of the House was targeted in the 2005 primaries and general election because they voted the (later proven to not be needed) Mark Warner Tax Increase.  Shoot, I bet there was not a single person who talked about being able to get funding for this or that or how to stop money from going to an unfavored system or region.  One can easily see how politics and budgeting do not go hand in hand.

Right…

Then, Ed Houck attacked the GOP over their vote, saying “It takes a lot of guts to start kicking around — politically — poor, 4-year-old children. Man, that’s leadership,”. Houck’s sarcasm was applauded by NLS-when in fact it was inappropriate, unstatesmanlike, self-defeating, and quite inaccurate.

Governor Kaine has chastised the House GOP, claiming they will take their ball and go home” by saying it was wrong of them to say “my way or the highway.” Better I suppose to engage in Kainesian Economics and simply accept without questioning what is put before them.

Gosh, where to start?

The fundamental fact is that even in the face of a slowing economy, the Democrats in Richmond and the GOP differ on how much money will come in during the next budget period. They assume that despite the very flat income tax structure in Virginia, that taxes received will raise at a faster from personal income growth. I don’t see how under the current Virginia structure tax income can do much more than increase at the same rate as personal income grows-or declines. To say it will outstrip the income growth rate seems to be unfounded.

First, the Democrats are obviously not enjoying life without John Chichester. First they failed to win his seat in the general election last fall. Now, they no longer have him to hide behind in the Senate Finance Committee. You see, regardless of what you think of him Chichester had the smarts, the charisma, the gall, and the cajones to make his will stand. He also had a permanent majority. Depending on the issue he and his minions could vote GOP and pick up a majority on the right, or bolt and go left and get the Democratic votes. Since he could always get a majority, there was little point in opposing him.

It should be noted that although retired from the Senate Chichester cannot help but heave cheap shots.  He was quoted in the WaPo as opining:

“What you have now is gridlock,” Chichester said from his home in Fredericksburg. “Before, the common goal was, ‘What is best for Virginia?’ Now that’s deteriorated to, ‘What is best for the party?’ ”

The Senate vote on the budget was disappointing, said Chichester, who said he never saw such dissent in his 30 years in the legislature.

This is, of course, silly speak. No matter now much the RK guys think this is statesmanlike chatter. The reason Chichester never saw anything like it is because for over half his time in the Senate either the Democrats held a massive majority-so there was no need to work together-or there was a tie-in which case there was every reason to work together.

Some may say the rancor began when the GOP took the majority. It appears to me the rancor began when Chichester became the sole chair of the Finance Committee.

In an aside, I should note how Lowell has changed his tune on what constitutes “partisan rancor”. When the Senate Democrats (in the minority) were voting as a bloc against the GOP budget, it was a good and patriotic thing. Now when the Senate GOP (in the minority) votes as a bloc against the Democratic budget is causes “partisan rancor”.

Horsefeathers…the rancor was already in place, created by an unwillingness on both sides to work together, but fostered on the democratic side of the Senate by their willingness to hide behind John Chichester’s Chairman’s chair.

Moving on…

Chuck Colgan, a good man, has never been accused of having political gravitas. His election in 1975 delayed the widening of Va-234 for years. He is not a leader, nor does he inspire loyalty or fear as Chichester did. He is not going to be able to intimidate, agitate, or otherwise shmooze the GOP minority to do something just because he wants it that way.

Colgan also carries the burden that both sides have come to see that committee and floor votes have consequences now that they might not have had twenty years ago. Twenty years ago a legislator could go along on a bill he was not 100% behind knowing that it would take real digging to get that information before the public in a context that would hurt him. Not now…votes are out and announced an in the public domain immediately thanks to all types of new media.  Votes that went unnoticed twenty years ago now must be defended.

Of course, the differences in how much revenue is coming in might not matter if either party set a needs baseline. Most business’s, people, families, etc., set a budget. The determine what goods and services they need, how much it takes to pay for them, and how much dinero is coming in. If the expenses exceed the revenue, they either cut the expenses or take steps to increase the revenue.

Not in Richmond, not for a long time. For the last ten years it does not matter who holds the legislature or the governor’s mansion, neither party has made a case for what the state needs to spend money on. In hard times, they start talking cuts and layoffs and attriting job openings, but that is all after the fact. No one has been willing to say “here is what we think the state needs-and here is why”. Instead, they assume they should start from where we were in the last budget.

Needless to say, this causes problems…especially when The Gov wants to start new programs in non-growth years.

Part and parcel of this practice is the argument that “this new thing costs so little, we should do it!” This is out of the same logic as the person from the cash strapped family who buys a bunch of stuff the family does not need, but points out that because of the sale they saved money. If the state doesn’t need the program NOW, now is NOT the time to subject the state budget to the Kainesian economics and torture it with the fiscal death by a thousand cuts by pushing through a multitude of small programs that individually may not be huge expenditures (given the overall budget) but taken in the aggregate is a huge sum.

Next comes the lust for power.  Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a real platform they operate from.  I have chastised the GOP for it, but noted the Democrats are no better.  The General Assembly Democrats believe that Governor Kaine’s bankroll won several races for them, so they had better push his program.  This means raiding the rainy day fund, implementing new programs at the expense of existing ones, and doing all this without a framework for explaining where they want to go. 

The stubbornness of the new Democratic leadership is of the same brand as that of the recent GOP Senate Majority. But it is disingenuous for them to carry on in so many forums about how partisan the GOP is being. While in the minority the Democrats wrote the book on “principled obstruction”, part of which was not fighting for legislation-because that created a record that could be fought against in the next election.

Well, now they are in the majority, and they get to learn their own lesson about “principled obstruction”. And now that the Senate Democrats can no longer hide behind John Chichester, now that they have to produce a record, now that they have to show what their own principles are…that adds a whole new aspect to how campaigns will be fought and policy produced here in the Commonwealth.

Most of all, it will cry out for a new parliamentary maturity in Richmond…because to date the new boss is about as petulant as the old boss.

And A Child Leads Them…in Richmond

The Book of Isaiah speaks of millennial peace when it tells us that “A Child Shall Lead Them”…apparently the same can be said for increased perks after misleading campaign ads.

Ben Tribbett gives the full bloody details here, and was reportedby the WaPo.  At base, Democratic House Leader Ward Armstrong wants Speaker Bill Howell to increase the per diem for house members…after attacking GOP members during the 2007 legislative elections for accepting an increased per diem by claiming it was a pay raise.

Now, having attacked the GOP for a per diem increase, Delegate Armstrong wants the same per diem increase the Senate approved.

It should be noted that in the senate campaigns there was no attack regarding the per diem:

Saslaw said he doesn’t blame House Republicans for resisting calls to raise the allowance this year. Saslaw said that Senate Democrats, who picked up the four seats in the election needed to regain the majority, steered clear of using pay raises as an issue because they thought it was an unfair charge to make against GOP incumbents…”They cut off their own noses,” Saslaw said, referring to House Democrats.

Armstrong, presenting a pose of princely petulance, said:

“Every one of us has our own take on what is fair,” Armstrong said. “I don’t know how much longer we have to talk about a campaign that was over in November. This is the ’08 session.”

Ah, leadership…or what passes for it in the democratic caucus. Have they never heard the wisdom of Shakespeare? If you strike the King, you must kill him

Did Armstrong really think the Democrats could attack the GOP on an administrative matter like per diems and have the GOP rush like sheep to the slaughter to approve another increase? Did he really think he would not be held responsible?

I had a similar experience at home recently. Number one son did something he was not supposed to Wednesday a week ago. His punishment kicked in the next day. He thought it was unfair that he was being punished on Thursday for something he did on Wednesday.

Apparently Delegate Armstrong thinks the same thing…he must think his punishment for an unfair attack was that it didn’t work, and that everyone would forget.

Heh…with leadership like this the GOP should rest easy.

I’m Feeling Sorry for Al “Windex” Pollard

I find I normally do not feel real sorrow for democratic candidates, but I am starting to feel the hurt for Albert Pollard.

Pollard gave up a delegate seat in 2005 due to some personal circumstance, then came back into politics this year as the Great Democratic Hope to grab the seat of retiring John Chichester…and almost did it.

In the meantime, the man who succeeded him in the House of Delegates, Rob Wittman, just got elected to the US House of Representatives.  Wittman will have to give up his General Assembly seat.

Now, knowing there would be a special election, had Rob Wittman resigned his seat during the campaign, then he would have been replaced on the ballot by the delegate district committee, said nominee would run unopposed, and the seat would stay in GOP hands without having to win a special election.  But that is another discussion…

Pollard’s name is already being dropped for the seat.  However, the GOP is not rolling over.  Word is out that “Austin Roberts, President and CEO of the Bank of Lancaster will be throwing his hat into the ring. Roberts brings plenty of cash with him into the race.”

This will not be a walkover for Pollard, and it is because of what will follow if he doesn’t win that makes me wince.

In the marvelous movie “My Big Fat Greek Wedding”, the bride’s father believes that anything short of surgery can be cured by spraying on Windex. Democrats in Va-1 seem to think the same about Mr. Pollard…if there is an open seat they can run him for they can and will do so.

So it will be interesting to see what happens in the wake of the special election, because I have a hunch that win or lose his name will surface to run against Wittman in November 2008 for the full term to Congress.

Why? Because when you believe that you have a Windex that can cure any political ill, you roll it out whenever you can…and that is apparently how the Va-1 Dems look at Albert “Windex” Pollard.

The Cooch’s Future, Prevent Defense, and Insurance Policies

The dust begins to settle and the 2007 elections begin to recede.  Thinking about political Life Its Ownself this weekend while collecting the 857 cubic tons of leaves that seem to have fallen into my yard, a few fleeting thoughts coalesced about some long term lessons and effects from this election.

You may have Ken Cuccinelli to kick around for along time

In the wake of the likely victory by the Cooch over the Hoot, many are writing off the Cooch as being in his last term in the Virginia Senate and as such a likely candidate for Attorney General in 2009.  But after looking at some census data and kicking around the idea with folks who are more knowledgeable such things, I think the large population growth increase  in Prince William County may be creating a different opportunity for the Cooch’s survival.

Since Va 27 already reaches into much of Fauquier (map), and since it is highly unlikely that Colgan will run for another term in 2011, I can see a scenario where Western PW is divided. Cuccinelli lives in a precinct that abuts Prince William County, so there is the possibility of lumping him and the stronger GOP districts in the 37th and the 39th, plus part of Gainesville to make a really sold GOP senate district, but then making the surrounding democratic seats that much stronger. 

As for the rest of PWC, you end up with a Senate district that runs from Manassas to the Potomac, plus a slice that goes into Va 27. Two GOP senators are made stronger, but the 27th is going to stay GOP for a while, and the resulting senate district in PWC will be competitive-something that I doubt the 29th would be, or else successive governors would not have begged Chuck Colgan to keep on running long past the time he wanted to retire.

Besides, there is something to be said for seeing that Fairfax County has at least one State Senator in both parties…and if the Senate redistricting follows the idea that it is better to create bulletproof districts as opposed to several that are strong but not locks, then the Cooch redistricting idea may well come full circle.

Do Not Play Prevent Defense

Every year you see NFL football teams get a big lead, and then try to kill the clock by going into a Prevent Defense. Almost inevitably the pressure goes away and the opposing QB gets some breathing room-and suddenly it is a game and the other guy has the momentum. In this campaign, the Hoot showed us the dangers of playing it safe. Her entire campaign seemed to be geared toward getting out the base. She and her staff seemed to be sure that all they had was to get out the base, and they win easily…so all they had to do was harp on base issues without fully defining Hoot or her positions.

Common sense says that the base within a district varies depending on what kind of election is on tap, and the base vote for President in county x may not be the same as the base vote in the same are for a statehouse campaign. You have to assume you will need non-base voters. Hoot did not, and played the entire campaign as if they thought that if she could just avoid saying something of substance that might bother folks, victory was hers.

Hoot apparently did say things of substance, but only in front of highly partisan audiences commited to her victory. When she entered into open forums, she did not offer substance. She instead uttered verbal gaffes that Cooch exploited. You see, if someone is not qualified to be a senator, then their issue positions will likely be discounted by voters who are not ideologically tied to a candidate.

Lesson: Define yourself before your opponent does, and run full out until election day without assuming the support of a certain group of voters means the election is a lock.

Secure a Majority, Buy Insurance Policies

The Virginia Senate is 21-19, and the GOP needs one more seat to get the totals to level and create through the vote of Lt. Gov Bowling a controlling GOP contingent.  Since the next Virginia Senate election is not until 2011, there are only rare possibilities that the GOP can get control of the Senate back prior to the next election…and that will cost M-O-N-E-Y…so I would start buying life insurance.

As Ben Tribbett noted, there are 23 seats that voted Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes. Four of them are held by democrats. At the risk of sounding morbid, I think the RPV and the Va Dem’s should buy a life insurance policy of some large sum on each of those men (Houck, Reynolds, Colgan, and Miller). Then, if they do pass away while in office, you have a ready made campaign war-chest.

Oh, as  a Public Service Announcement…

Kline’s Drive-In, south of Manassas, will be open only for another 57 hours or so…and then it is history.

As you may have guessed, I am already sitting shiva…

😦