A few random ruminations on a bright monday morning after a weekend of scouts, church stuff, and leaves…

Excellent article by Ben Tribbett regarding Bi-Partisan redistricting after the 2010 census.

Got mailers from Horinko and Nance this weekend.

Still haven’t heard about the results of the Dem polling, but amazed in other articles that Marsden backers don’t see the need to import a candidate in Va-37 as representing a weakness in the Democratic Party.

Speaking of Dave, in last week’s Connection he is quoted as saying, “I live about 100 yards from [the 37th Senate District]. I could literally throw a rock and hit it from my door step.“. Apparently Delegate Marsden doesn’t understand the term “literally”…or he has an arm so strong that he should look to join the NFL and not the State Senate.

Speaking of Marsden and his supporters, a random IP address check shows that a Marsden backer is posting here under multiple names. While I appreciate the desire of folks to use a pseudonym, around here they need to pick one posting name and stick to it. The posting policy has been appropriately amended.

Democratic bloggers are going out of their way to cite polling data and the badly managed Deeds campaign to support the contention that President Obama was not a drag on the Democratic ticket. I guess there must be a difference between Obama, the Individual and Obama and his policies, because there sure to seem to be a lot of voters who are upset with his policies.

Speaking of Obama and bloggers, isn’t is funny how when a trend is political trend is broken-like 2008, the Democrats carry Virginia in a presidential race for the first time since 1964-it is the result of hard work, discipline, changing tides, and the like…but when a political trend and breaks against them, it is dismissed as simply being part of a pattern, as if the election was always a foregone conclusion? It’s as if the opposition did nothing during the 2009 elections. Seems like whistling past the graveyard.

Were the 2009 Virginia results a repudiation of labor political efforts? We shall see…

Many have said at length that Deeds is the weakest Virginia statewide candidate ever.  Using 1969 as the benchmark for the years post -Byrd Machine, I think they must mean Democratic statewide candidate.  Do a top to bottom analysis, and I Maurice Dawkins, John Chichester or Eddy Dalton on the GOP side could make the same claim.  I put Chichester at the top of the list, as Dawkins and Dalton ran with the patina of gimmick or celebrity  as the driving claim behind their efforts.

Kitchen renovation almost finished…

Too Conservative takes a solid look at Frank Wolf. Clearly the Democrats are still ticked at him for taking on popular, well financed opposition in three straight cycles and winning in good times and bad for the GOP. I have long heard folks wonder why Congressman Wolf is considered a moderate. Well, when the Tea Party folks say he isn’t conservative enough, and the Lowell Feld/Judy Feder wing of the Democrats scream he is too conservative, you end up seeing he is a a moderate conservative congressman with interests and concerns across the spectrum and not specifically wedded to a litmus test-which seems to be exactly what Va-10 wants.

Belated recognition-the full slate of Dems being polled on in Va-37 (as per NLS) is: Dave Marsden, Chuck Caputo, Janet Oleszek, Kathy Smith and Luann McNabb.

As noted in this round up the GOP in Virginia Senate 37 have three candidates (Marianne Horinko, Steve Hunt, Will Nance) who were primed at the bell to run in a special election, fired up websites and fired out mailings w/in a week of the November General election, and are out combing the landscape for votes.

On the other side of the aisle the Democrats are apparently doing polling to see who could run the strongest race in the district. Names that apparently are on the poll are Delegate Dave Marsden (narrowly reelected to the HOD earlier this month), Janet “Hoot” Oleszek, who lost to SenKen by ~100 votes in 2007, and former HOD member Chuck Caputo. Of the three, only Oleszek lives in the district. Both Marsden and Caputo represented precincts in the 37th in the HOD, but would have to parachute in and run as the carpetbagger candidate. [NOTE: After posting, I received an IM that the Dem polling was for five candidates...but I still have no idea who the other two names are...]

While rigorous to vicious post mortems are being offered by Democratic officials/volunteers/bloggers, etc., about why Creigh Deeds got whomped on election day, I suggest there is a fundamental problem the Virginia Democrats have that is stands out in this race. The problem? They care more about winning than about standing for something.  This candidate selection by polling is perhaps the inevitable result of the Democrats long standing attempt to gain “Power on the Cheap”.

Yes, I understand that one of the goals of a political party is to win elections. Ideological purity can mean an extended stay in the wilderness.  But I have long noted that for the last eight years the Democrats have chosen to rely on GOP infighting to give them political power instead of advancing policy issues that-even if defeated in the General Assembly-could serve as campaign planks in a general election.  Instead, over eight years of Democrats in the governor’s mansion and two years of absolute control of the Virginia Senate (plus many more years of coalition cooperation with John Chichester and Russ Potts) there were no issues advanced in Virginia by the Democrats that they fought for, bled for, and could say to the populace “THIS is what we stand for”.

Instead, they have relied on GOP infighting, errors, and retirements.  It is a practice that places power above policy, and seeks to buy that power with the cheap currency of what the opponent did wrong instead of being able to use what the Dems did right.

Consider the NoVA Dem delegates that were defeated in 2009:

1)   David Poisson won his seat in 2005 (Kaine win, beginning of the Bush Backlash in the wake of bad news from Iraq and mishandling Katrina relief) from Dick Black, who had become a single issue culture warrior unconcerned with state governance;
2) Chuck Caputo won his seat in 2005 after a bruising GOP primary ousted GOP incumbent Gary Reese [corrected] and sent very conservative Chris Craddock into battle;
3) Paul Nichols won his seat in 2007 when incumbent delegate Michelle McQuigg stepped down to run for Clerk of the Court in PWCo. A bitter GOP convention sent up a weak GOP candidate;
4) Marge Vanderhye won her seat in 2007 after the retirement of Vince Callahan and defeated a reasonable but not strong GOP candidate in a district with less a GOP organization than a Callahan organization.

All these pickups were against weak incumbents or open seats with a weak candidate and where the local party structure relied less on the party than on the network of the individual candidate. These were wins against weakened candidates running an increasingly GOP toxic atmosphere.

Even David Marsden’s win in 2005 (for the seat of retiring moderate GOP delegate Jim Dillard) points up this devotion to power over policy. Marsden was Dillard’s long time legislative aide. Marsden was a GOP political appointee under Jim Gilmore-and was partisan enough that he was removed from his position after Mark Warner was elected. Marsden went door to door for the Cooch in 2003. But in 2005 he switched parties because he thought it was his best chance to go to the HOD. Cathy Belter, who had lost to Cooch in the 2003 general election, wanted to run for the Delegate seat but was by many accounts bullied out of running. Marsden was embraced by his new party over those who had labored in the vineyards because the party elders thought he was their best shot at winning.

The same thing is happening now. The Democrats are shopping various candidates based solely on electability, and two of them would have to change legal residence to run. By all accounts Hoot wants another shot, and it is a reasonable assertion that her result in 2007 should give her first shot at a special election nomination. Obviously, her case is undercut by her flaws as a campaigner. Still, one would think the organic choice and not the artificial choice would be the natural choice.

One would be wrong in thinking so…

More to the point she is a longtime Democratic activist who should have better name ID across the district from her time as a candidate and as an elected member of the school board…and she is potentially being pushed aside by Team Carpetbagger.

The candidate search in Va 37, its artificiality, its focus on best chance to win as opposed to fealty to party and loyalty to policy is indicative of a real problem in the Virginia Democracy. Va Dems have by the course of time or their own bad strategy have lost their high cards. They can no longer rely on being able to bash the bogeymen Bush and Gilmore, They cannot rely on internal strife to undermine GOP candidates. Their attempt to gain “power on the cheap” via GOP strife means they party has no state program or record of achievement to take to voters in this special election.

You would think that after eight years controlling the governor’s mansion, at least four years in almost complete control of Fairfax politics the Va Dems would have built up a stronger bench…but when you go for power on the cheap and refuse to grow your own troops and your own issues, maybe this candidacy by polling is the inevitable result.

Meanwhile-In a strange development the Janet Oleszek website www.Janetforfairfax.com which only ten days ago was populated and up and running (albeit not updated since fall 2008) is now shown as being “parked”. A Whois search shows it is owned by Oleszek for Senate through Feb 13, 2010.  I have to wonder if it is being retrofitted for a special election?

There is a very good reason I never thought to become a lawyer…the bane of legal research…

While I was correct earlier today in noting:

24.2-954. Campaign fundraising; legislative sessions; penalties.

A. No member of the General Assembly or statewide official and no campaign committee of a member of the General Assembly or statewide official shall solicit or accept a contribution for the campaign committee of any member of the General Assembly or statewide official, or for any political committee, from any person or political committee on and after the first day of a regular session of the General Assembly through adjournment sine die of that session.

I missed the later section that reads in part:

Yep, so a member of the General Assembly can raise funds for a special election.  My bad-blew that one.  I will do better next time.

Thanks to Mike K. for so delicately pointing this out-as well as his personal knowledge of the Cuccinelli family health insurance needs-in the comments section of the post prior to this one.

The analysis and opinion offered in the blog piece below is in error, and is based on not reading the appropriate Virginia statute far enough.  My mea culpa and apology is offered in the blog post immediately following, but I think I will leave this up as a reminder to myself and others to be careful what you write.

Again, to be crystal clear-members of the General Assembly are not prohibited from raising money during sessions for a special election.  My premise was erroenous, and as a result the analysis faulty.

B

*******************************************************************************************************************

Can you have a special election when there is no opening?

Strange question-but bear with me.

Ken Cuccinelli is the AG-elect of Virginia, but he is still the state Senator from Va 37, and will be until he resigns.  I imagine he can hold his office until the third week of January, which is when the GA convenes (1/13/2009) and the McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli team is sworn in (1/16/2009).

We know Cooch has to resign at some point-he cannot hold both the state senator and AG positions simultaneously.

We have all been running under the assumption that Tim Kaine would call a special election:
1) At as late a date as possible but
2) prior to the General Assembly convening so that Va 37 has a senator to represent it during the entire session and to avoid charges of playing politics with the selection process.

However, a little bird told me that Cuccinelli may not resign until January 13.

Initially, I thought that would be crazy…that would play right into Kaine’s hands. 

Then I remembered something-members of the Virginia legislature are prohibited from raising campaign funds during the General Assembly session.  You may recall that is the reason Brian Moran gave for stepping down last January prior to the session-so he could continue to raise money for his gubernatorial campaign.

Specifically:

Courtesy of the National Conference of State Legislators!

So if Cuccinelli holds off on his resignation until January 13th or so, then Kaine cannot help in his last days in office to set a date that falls either during or after the General Assembly session-but during that time Dave Marsden cannot himself raise money, accept contributions, etc.

Perhaps he can run hard until then to get contributions to his delegate fund, but I have to think raising money during the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year season would be tough in general…and even more difficult to do for a putative campaign where the election the candidate would run in has not even been announced.

Then, during the session Marsden (or any sitting member) would need to be in Richmond-which, unless Star Trek transporter technology has come on line recent, will make it really difficult for them to campaign and still do the legislative job they were elected to do. Marsden would be on the hook not only for carpetbagging into another district, but potentially for ignoring his elected duties in order to win a special election.

Oh, and not to pummel the obvious but neither Steve Hunt, Will Nance, nor Marianne Horinko are members of the General Assembly.

I should also note that doing this means Va 37 goes into the General Assembly session without a representative in the state Senate, and could open the GOP up to charges of playing politics with the selection process. Nonetheless, it would cut much of the ooomph out of a Marsden campaign.

So, can the governor call a special election for a seat that he knows will go empty by a certain date and potentially have two folks holding the seat, or must he wait until a resignation is submitted and the seat is legally vacant? Can a member of the legislator run in a s special election and overcome the fundraising restriction?

I always thought the Democrats wanted a late election date. Now I see there are circumstances where a late election-given who the Democrats are looking to as candidates-could benefit the GOP.

I always knew Ken Cuccinelli was smart…but this late resignation idea is crazy-crazy like a fox!

Suddenly, Janet “Hoot” Oleszek-who is not in the General Assembly-looks a lot better!

Last week I suggested that Tim Kaine would pick a special election date that gives the dems the best chance of winning the seats.  Given how things are going, I am picking the date as January 12th.

Why?  Kaine will pick the longest date to give Dave Marsden as much time as is needed to arrange a carpetbag parachute into Va Sen 37.  The General Assembly  convenes on January 13, 2010.  FYI-Bob McDonnell will be sworn in on January 16th, 2010 (first saturday after second tuesday in the january immediately following gubernatorial election).  If a date is set past January 12, then Kaine and the Democrats face the charge of leaving the 37th unrepresented in Richmond due to partisan intrigue.

Now the funny thing here is that if the date is on January 12, then the nominating date-firehouse primary, convention,etc., has to be set, called for, in such a way as to meet legal requirements.  I am guessing that a January 12 special election means the nominations need to be five weeks in advance, which means nominations no later than December 8.

The irony?  Virginia has a thirty-day residency requirement to vote.  If my anticipations and calculations are correct, then unless DugOut Dave has already moved and declared a new residency-then he won’t be able to vote for himself for the nomination for the office he would be seeking on a nominating date of December 8 or earlier!

Rich-absolutely rich!  Heckuva way to start a campaign!

It has begun…

At 1506 11.6.2009 I got a robocall from Marianne Horinko inviting me to her campaign  kick-off on Tuesday.

Game On!

UPDATE: Late mail pick up yesterday…first mailings from Horinko and Nance hit.  More later…

Both Hoot Oleszek and David Bulova told the WaPo they will not be candidates for the Democratic nomination in the va 37 special election.

GOP bloggers across the state immediately went into a state of mourning at the news that Hoot was out.

Delegate “Dugout” Dave Marsden, darling of realtors in the Burke are, apparently will be amping up his house hunting.

It will be interesting to see if our old pal Dugout, whose undistinguished career in the House almost lost him his seat on election day, will choose to enter to enter that pathetic pantheon of peripatetic politicians already occupied by James Socas, Dick Black, and Stevens Miller, who all have two things in common:

1. They all attempted to carpetbag into elected office (Congress, Congress, and HOD respectively), and
2. They all lost.

Say what you will about Marsden’s carpetbagging, after four years in the General Assembly at least he is finally doing something to improve the local economy by picking up a new summer residence somewhere in the 37th…perhaps a lovely place in the Burke Conservancy?

Earlier today I mentioned that the Marianne Horinko site was up but really alive.  Tune back in at 1932 hours and-as Dr. Frankenstein said’-” Its’ Alive!”…but not as populated as her opponents.

Also a copy of her announcement press release is up courtesy of Virgnia Virtucon. Perhaps in her next press release she and her staff will not misspell Centreville. You would think a candidate for office would not misspell the names of the localities in her district.

Earlier tonight Brother Riley queried me if the Democrats are not going to run Oleszek, then who?

I still don’t know-as recounted earlier today, there are some bizarre variable facing anyone getting into this race. But although I don’t know who they will select, I do know how they will do it. It will be done quietly, smoothly. There will be a convention with only one candidate nominated. The lesson of the bruising gubernatorial primary is fresh in their minds, so they will come to an agreement behind closed doors and present a name to the world supported by smiling, unified faces.

They will hope the GOP three-way causes dissension, and they will hope to benefit from that dissension in the special election.

At least, that’s how I would play it.

Wins by GOP State Senators Ken Cuccinelli (Va 37-Attorney General) and Ken Stolle (Va 8-Sheriff, Va Beach) mean there will be two special elections in the near future.  These races hold more than a little significance in a chamber where the Democrat edge is only 21-19.  If the GOP hold both seats, then Governor-elect McDonnell may well attempt to convince a conservative Dem Senator to switch parties or appoint a Dem Senator in an otherwise GOP district to a nice state position and hope to fill his/her seat with a GOP senator.

The result?  At least a power sharing agreement splitting committee seats and negating the Dem edge…at most a party line vote that gives the GOP organizational control of the state Senate, with Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) breaking the tie.

I know very little about Va 8-only that I am told that Jeff McWaters is the favorite in that very GOP district

I live in Va 37 so I thought I would prattle on a bit.  We don’t know the date for the special elections, although I am confident that The Gov will select a date for the special election that is the most helpful to potential democratic candidates…it is just part of his partisan roll…or is that role?

The WaPo has gotten into the game tossing out various names with wild abandon.

The list kicks off on the GOP side, where Steve Hunt is the first one out of the blocks.  He is a former member of the Fairfax School Board, he has run in and done well in the precincts in VaSen 37, has a web site up and running, and will announce officially on November 7. Shoot, he is even on YouTube courtesy of BVBL!  It’s the YouTube that gets him the first out of the blocks status.

Right behind Hunt are Marianne Horinko and Will Nance. Ms. Horinko is a former GW Bush administration official and head of the Washington-based environmental consulting firm The Horinko Group.  Mr. Nance is the Executive Director of the Greensprings Retirement Community.

The Hunt and Nance websites are tricked out full of information. Ms Horinko has a nice first page picture and a form to fill in to donate or get on an email list, but no information. It pales in comparison to the style and detail of her erstwhile opponents. Also, the form to use to get on an email list doesn’t work.

I have no idea what is up on the Dem side. Twitter traffic from good sources suggest that in fact  Janet “Hoot!” Oleszek will not run. This saddens me, as I was looking forward to her not answering hypothetical questions. Others will certainly be disappointed to not be able to see the public waffling likely to be part of a Hoot candidacy.   I should note that while Hunt/Nance/Horinko came fast out the blocks, Hoot’s website has not been updated since October 2008 (at least that is the status at 1000 on 11.6.2009).

Other names, as mentioned at the Mason Conservative and in the WaPo piece referenced above, are Democratic delegates David Bulova and “Dugout” Dave Marsden. The Mason Conservative points out the conundrum for Bulova. Only three (and I only count two) precincts in Bulova’s delegate district are in Senate 37.

Dave Marsden’s situation is both better and worse. Ten of his fourteen (and absentee makes 15) precincts are also in Senate 37. Marsden won reelection ealier this week by a margin of only 208 votes (although to be fair there was a green party candidate who drew 349 votes).  The difference in the ten House 41 precincts that are also in Senate 37 was +47 for marsden…so I don’t really see how Dugout Dave is well served by moving his residence (which he would have to do) into the Senate district just to have a chance to run in a special election where he actually barely won his base precincts in the 2009 general-and those are precincts that are in the Democratic end of the 37th!

Dang, maybe Hoot will have to get in, after all…

Even more than VA-8 this race has a variety of interesting side stories…

1. The Virginia Senate is 21-19 Democrat. If the GOP holds both these senate seats then a single dem departure from the Democratic caucus creates a chance for the GOP to pick up a seat.  If there is a 20-20 tie in the chamber, then LtGov Bill Bolling breaks the tie, even  for organization of the body.  Plus an evenly divided Senate is one thing in determining redistricting, a +1 to either side is another thing.  To that end, I trust the DPVA has a $2 million life insurance policy on Chuck Colgan.  His district is likely to go GOP once he leaves the seat, so…

This seat is not a throwaway election. Given how GOP Va Senate 8 is, Va Senate 37 will become the new battleground in Virginia politics.

2. Redistricting. Reapportionment comes after the 2010 census, and a state Senate that is even steven numerically gives the GOP a better shot in reapportionment than if they are in the minority.  However, there has been talk of taking 37-especially if Fairfax gets another state Senator-and reassigning the lot of counties to other districts.  One  possibility is to use the 37/Dem precincts to be part of a new Democratic tilting district, and take the GOP districts and spin them off with GOP precincts from the Barker and Peterson districts.  Another concept is the 37/GOP precincts into counties from Western Prince Williams. The driving concept there is if PW County is apportioned for the Senate by having a single senate disrict that runs from the Occoquan West, and divide out the western end. Traditionally, PW County has had a single senate seat anchored in the west and running south with the balance used to even out other districts.

3. Potentially limited tenure. Do you run for this seat knowing that in two years it is likely to change massively…and as the most junior member of the Senate you will have bubkes worth of clout to protect yourself?

Shoot, consider Dugout Dave in this light…do you move just to run (and face the Carpetbagger charge) and even if you win face the real possibility of having to run in an entirely new district in 2013?

On the other hand, Bulova or Marsden might think it is a free bite at the apple-they can run for the State Senate without giving up their delegate seat.

Bottom Line:

GOP-Horinko, Hunt, Nance are in
Democrats-Speculation abounds, and the most substantive is that David Marsden is house hunting to he can run for higher office from a base of precincts he barely carried on 11.3.2009.  Can that be right?

At this point all we have are rumors, websites, and apparently a little house hunting.

Only two things are certain:

First, that Governor Kaine will select a special election date based on what he believes is the best timing to elect a Democrat to either/both seats.

Second, that after the special elections last January for Board Supervisor and Braddock Supervisor, we have a lot of folks who have mondo recent experience in running and working special elections.

Burke/Braddock Va-home of the special election!  Let the games begin!  And if you have more skinny on VaSen 37, add to the comments or drop me a line!

John Riggins lets Dan Snyder have it:

While I don’t know that Snyder is a “bad guy”, his business practices certainly seem contrary to fielding a winning football team.  Heed Riggo!