The Democratic Balloon goes UP in Virginia 10

During the Great War a precursor to an assault was sending up observers in balloons to help pinpoint artillery fire.  It appears the Democratic balloon in Virginia 10 has gone up, and the gallop to 2008 is on.

Earlier this week in Too Conservative it was noted that retired Colonel Mike “Make Life Matter” Turner of Waterford, motivational speaker renowned for his anti-Frank Wolf letters to the editor, was telling people he was running for the democratic nomination for Virginia 10 in 2008. I seem to recall a comment somewhere that Turner was or claimed to be a foreign policy advisor to Judy Feder (the failed Democratic candidate in Va-10 in 2006), but I cannot seem to find the comment.

Shortly thereafter a post came up at Raising Kaine reporting that a “senior advisor” said that Judy Feder was “seriously considering” another run in 2008. This possibility was picked up at BVBL and discussed at some length.

For purposes of pontification, let’s assume this is all true, and then let’s consider a recurring comment in these strings…

There seems to be the potential for a small tussle in the Democratic tent.  I tend to think both are accurate, and that the Raising Kaine piece was designed to get the word out for Dems not to commit to soon.  I do know that Ms. Feder has already filed the paperwork to be a candidate in 2008, although this may have been a pro-forma move to keep her options open.  It is not surprising that such a posting came up in RK, which has long been a huge Federista and was genuinely surprised she lost as badly as she did in 2006 and sought input to figure out why it happened.

I tend to think Ms. Feder wants to get the Democratic nomination on the cheap and not have to spend any money or energy on a nomination fight, hence the post.

One of the more interesting aspects of these posts is a recurring comment-or more precisely, a wishful hope. Throughout these posts there are several suggestions that Wolf may not run in 2008. They cite age, loss of majority status, no wish to fight another stressful campaign.

This whole idea is known as false hope. These folks keep forgetting a few things:
a) Congressman Wolf has regularly referred to serving in Congress as the “dream of a lifetime”. He ran three times before he was elected. One does not give up something they worked that hard to obtain
b) Frank Wolf went into Congress in the minority and functioned effectively. The causes he espouses are best served by his continued presence in Congress. Not much motivation there to step down.

A year ago the Democrats were deriding Frank Wolf as an out-of-touch old man in a changing demographic area. They poured money into the district, even moving it onto target lists late in the campaign. All this in the most toxic year for a Republican candidate in 30 years. Yet with all this, Judy Feder got only 40.96% of the vote, even running behind the woefully underfunded Andrew Hurst in Va-11.

Somehow, wining that big in a bad year for the GOP does not strike me as adequate motivation for Congressman Wolf to step down.   By the same token, having lost solidly in 2006 despite all the factors listed above, and with a presidential race going on in 2008 with a majority to protect, I wonder if Ms. Feder or any Democratic contender in Va-10 will be considered a strong choice for donors…but that is for another post at another time.

Bottom line-Lord willing and the river don’t rise Frank Wolf is running for reelection in 2008, and I bet he wins again. Frank Wolf is a good man untouched by scandal with unparalleled constituent service.

Sorry to bring such sad tidings to all those salivating for a chance to turn Va-10 blue, but that is the way it is.


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