Additional Contrarion View…

You write a blog post.  Then, something of significance comes to your attention that is relevant to the previous post…do an update or a new post?

I go with the new post…it boosts the post count and reminds me I am not as smart as I think I am.

A recent WaPo article looked at the time Tom Davis is spending campaigning for his wife, state Senator JMDD, in her race against Chap! in Virginia 34, and what it means for his potential US Senate candidacy against Mark Warner:

If she loses in a Senate district that is almost entirely contained within his 11th Congressional District, it could mean that his hold on Northern Virginia is not as strong as it needs to be for a statewide win. If she wins, it could be interpreted to mean that both are electable even at an adverse time for Republicans.

I suggest that argument does not drill as deep as it needs to.

JMDD’s contest certainly will be used as a boost or a brickbat for a Davis nomination. But I suggest the real question is not going to be does she win or lose, but how she does in comparison to Kilgore 2005 and Allen 2006.

We all recognize a JMDD win is good for Tom Davis, and a Chap! win is not. 

But when does the poison take hold?  Taking claims at NLS at face value, Kaine and Webb won the precincts in Senate 34 with 60% of the vote.  What if JMDD loses but runs ahead of recent statewide candidates? How does that play?

I bet that even a “solid” JMDD loss can play in Davis’ favor in terms of getting the nomination. 

Of course, that does not discuss how the GOP is going to cut the Democrats 150,000+ vote edge in the combined totals of Va 3 and Va 8, but that is for another post…

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