Final Election Predictions, questions, observations

As I type this it is approaching 11PM on 11.5.2007.  The polls open in approximately 7 hours.  So, being one to put my picks where my blog is, I offer my final election predictions for the Great Political Consultant Charity Event, better known as the 2007 General Assembly elections.

You will see there are some changes from my picks a month or so ago, but things do change.

1. Mike Breiner over Ralph Smith
2. Jill Holtzman Vogel over Karen Schultz
3. Ken Cuccinelli over Janet Oleszek
4. Ralph Northam over Nick Rerras
5. Richard Stuart over Albert Pollard
6. George Barker over Jay O’Brien
7. Chuck Colgan over Bob FitzSimmonds
8. John Miller over Tricia Stall
9. Chap! over JMDD

That is 16+6=22 Democratic seats, a five seat pickup…and Dick Saslaw gets the majority leader title.  My feeling is that the Dems want this one badly, have spent lots of money to get there, and will get their majority in the Senate.

General Observations:

1. With control of the Senate so close, and by all accounts things running close in Senate 29, why in the world was so little last minute money spent on that race, especially on behalf of Bob FitzSimmonds by the GOP?  If the Democrats clear 20 and hold this seat in a close race, there will be some severe monday morning quarterbacking.  If things break bad for the GOP in this race or, more improbably, in the House race between Jeanette Rishell and Jackson Miller, look for Carroll Weimer to start warming up for a future contest.

2. I think  the big upset is down in Roanoke.  Former Mayor Ralph Smith defeated incumbent Senator Brandon Bell in the GOP primary, and apparently thought the primary was tantamount to election.  By most accounts has been out worked by Mike Breiner.  Breiner has raised twice as much $$, and I have a hunch the GOP will pay in this race for an unwillingness to have a big tent approach to candidates.

3. Cooch will take the Hoot…voters will not respond to her last second desperation, her record distorting robo calls, and her unwillingness to state what she will do in Richmond.  By the same token, Jay O’Brien will lose a seat he should have been able to hold as a result of the drag on his numbers in Prince William County due to the Faisal Gill candidacy.  To employ a Ben Tribbett test…do you really think you are going to see a lot of Paul Nichol/Jay O’Brien ticket voters?  Me neither.

4. Folks like Rerras and JMDD could still win, but experience shows that last second undecideds break against the incumbent.  I don’t have access to their polling, but if they aren’t outside the margin of error by now, they will have problems tomorrow.

5. Final choice for worst sign of this campaign-Dale Evans for Clerk.  Yellow on Brown is too muddy, an the boot on the corner doesn’t do it.  It almost takes over the worst all-time sign, but not quite…that honor still sits with Sam Hancock, failed candidate for the GOP nod for House of Delegates down around Richmond in 1981.  Brown background, creme script that looked like a very long piece of rope spelling his name and intended office.  BIG LESSON-avoid brown as the background color on posters.

6. Gerry Connollywill win easy re-election as Chairman of the Fairfax BOCS, but not so strongly as to make him a real favorite to whack Leslie “Go Big or Go Home” Byrne in the 11th district Democratic primary next spring.   Yes, I know that is not yet her official nickname, but given the large and in charge way she seems to approach everything…shouldn’t it be?

Also, have you ever thought that sometimes Chairman Gerry resembles a character from Foster’s Home for Imaginary Friends?

connolly4.jpg    

fostersfamilypicture.jpg

I mean, I’m just saying…

That’s it for now.  See you at the polls tomorrow! 

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