Tom Davis-I Must Reluctantly Agree…

…will not run for reelection to the House of Representatives.

I hope I am incorrect, but a simple thought occured  to me that convinced me he may well be out.

It was not long ago that I touched on my reasoning on why he would run again.  I wrote:

I think after the JMDD loss and the decision of the state central committee to go with a convention Davis needs time to rest and reflect. But by waiting it also gives the powers that be, even those who want Gilmore to be the Senate nominee, to consider what happens in Va-11 without Davis running. They get to consider how Gilmore will be impacted without Davis on the ticket, and the national boyos get to think about how hard it will be to hold that seat without Davis.

My prediction was this:

I tend to think that sometime after Valentine’s Day there will be an announcement that Davis will run for reelection. It is human nature to not want to be seen as slinking away, and a win burnishes his escutcheon…and keeps him in the mix for the senate race in 2012.

Even amidst stories of staff leaving, I still felt he would run again.

What has changed my mind? The DCCC target list.

The DCCC put out its target list of congressional races.  Va-11 was not on it.  Why?  Because there is a long term incumbent GOP congressman in the seat…and therein is why Davis is holding off on an announcement.

The minute he announces he will not run then all of a sudden the DCCC makes VA-11 a targeted seat, and Leslie Byrne and Gerry Connolly and other dems will get a boost in their fundraising from their partisans in the Democratic Party because suddenly it is a lot more likely they can win the seat, and giving now can allow them to max out their contributions to the candidate.

The longer Davis holds off saying he is not going to run for reelection, the more he can exercise a dampening effect on the Democrats fundraising. Now I know that this will not affect democratic fundraising in the fall, but it is the only reason I can come up with for him not announcing or otherwise giving some really strong signal he will not be a candidate in 2008.

Now, if he is running he can exercise the whole dampening effect simply by announcing…only if he is not going to run does he hinder the demo candidates by not announcing.

Davis will not be running, as evidenced by his delay in announcing the same. I don’t know what is driving the decision, only that it will be his decision not to run.

So, yeah…that’s my story and my reasoning…

…at least for today!


5 thoughts on “Tom Davis-I Must Reluctantly Agree…

  1. Bwana:
    Hope you’re wrong. I think those of us in the 11th need Tom now more than ever. He has done alot for this district and it’s citizens and we will be far less served by any freshman of either party. However, we’ll know in a few weeks whether he’s in or out.
    I will also add that this weekend’s NFL playoff action has shown that there is some justice in this world with the Cowboys and the Colts being eliminated. Now if only San Diego can beat New England and their cheater coach, then there is a light!!
    Take care

  2. Bwana: My fundraising is coming along just fine. Most folks (including Tom Davis) see the 11th as a 53% Democratic performance district. Also this same district is the one I carried with 55% of the vote two years ago. While others may choose to wait on a cat and mouse game, I am running and I am running to win. Regards

  3. LB3, I have no reason to doubt you…I, like Mongo, just pawn in game of life, offering my observations from the sidelines while occasionally punching out someone’s horse. 😉

  4. So, you’re a Mel Brooks – Blazing Saddles – fan too. I knew there was something I liked about you :).

    BTW, good analysis!

  5. Bwana:
    I like the Blazing Saddles reference as well. Ms. Byrne may be in to win, but do not count out Mr. Chairman. Good Luck to all!
    Mr. Davis hasn’t said what he is going to do, so this may be all speculation. I hope he is in, now more than ever, we need him!


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