We returned yesterday from “The Happiest Place in the World”, and came back with some new views and opinions…including a few on the political contest taking place today.
We were inundated with the Primary Air War. Over the almost six days we were down there (from 1700 on 1.22.2008 to 1000 on 1.28.2008) I saw 14 McCain ads, a dozen for Romney, and a half dozen each for Huckabee and for Giuliani. Understand these were typically repetitions of the same spots. McCain focused on defense, Romney on Administrative competence, Huckabee on the “Fair Tax”, and Rudy G on his record of 9/11 and his tax cuts as mayor of NOO YAWK CITY.
Before you dismiss that number, consider that we only saw the tube for about an hour in the AM before hitting the parks, and then another hour in the evening while the family cooled down before baths and bed…so to get that much during fairly limited viewing hours seemed like fairly heavy advertising.
The news we were getting just gives me the feel that McCain wins today. Of course, I was the guy who said Tom Davis would run again, so I know how much cred I am carrying as a predictor. I just have hunch that Romney is not going to do as well as he needs to do with the Rock Ribbed conservatives…I think they are going to look at his current positions, and see how much he has changed them recently, and decide they are better off with someone with whom they disagree on certain issues but know he is consistent in his views.
Huckabee needs the big panhandle conservative vote, but he is focusing on his “Fair Tax” plan…and I have seen nothing to suggest he is breaking out.
Rudy? Well, I like Rudy. I think he would be a good president and a cool hand in a crisis, but among the Kerik catastrophe and the stories of temper and petulance, and the marriages, and his failure to engage and contest prior to Florida-well, let’s just say my “Rudy 2008” baseball cap is going to become a collectible a lot faster than I anticipated.