Recollections of football conversations with my father have led me to think that Hillary Clinton just might be done…as in cooked.
Whenever my father and I watch football games, there are a number of football announcers cliches tossed about in response to certain actions, including:
-“You got to catch those to play in this league” when a receiver drops a pass that hits him between the numbers.
-“Linemen have to fall on the ball” when a big, lumbering lineman unsuccessfully attempts to pickup a fumble and run with it.
-“You’d think they’d never scored before” after a too-energetic post touchdown celebration.
-“If I wanted a floor show, I’d go to Vegas” after an especially over the top post touchdown celebration.
But one regular comment was heard when a team had a narrow halftime lead despite the other team turning over the ball three or four times and went something like this:
That many turnovers, they should have put this away by now…now the other guys think they are bulletproof and are going to stage a comeback.
Typically, “the other guys” did, and typically won.
I suggest that Hillary is Clinton is much like those football teams who have all these advantages in the first half but don’t put the game away early.
Hillary Clinton came into this race with all the advantages one could want…name ID, bankroll, organization, energetic supporters. She was a widely known quantity, and you would think that those who wanted to be with her would be with her from the start. Instead she is in a neck and neck race with Obama, winning pluralities in states choosing delegates (as opposed to beauty contests where no delegates are selected).
Yes, those were multi-candidate fields, but more on that later.
I don’t think the John Edwards withdrawal helps her. Edwards was preaching change, just not using the same hymnal as Obama. I suspect Edwards voters who were with him as a (lord, forgive me for saying this) an “agent of change” will be more than willing to move to Obama. For those who were with him because he was a white male, I have no idea where they go…but you would think again that if they were strong for Hillary they already would have lined up behind her.
If you look at the comments from Mudcat Saunders, an Edwards advisor, about Hillary then the likelihood of a switch to her becomes even more unlikely:
I can say this that, you know, being a southerner, being a rural American who’s been completely devastated by the trade policies of the Clintons, I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure that he does not endorse Hillary Clinton.
Like I said, that when I’m traveling now up through north Georgia, passing towns and be going through South Carolina and turn over into the Appalachians and everything looks like, you know, Sherman went through it but didn’t burn thing, I think there is accountability involved there. For Hillary Clinton to continue to talk about the unintended consequences of NAFTA — they weren’t unintended, they were unconsidered. You know, we all heard about the giant sucking sound when they first started talking about this. I just don’t think the Clintons have been a friend of my people out in rural America.
I doubt Mudcat is alone in his thinking, which means there is no absolute unanimous desire to back Hillary C.
More than that, there is that old multi-candidate thing. I am sure if you ask her Senator Clinton will say she welcomes a chance to go head to head with Obama and discuss the issues of the day. The reality is that Edwards presence was the best thing going for Hillary. The Hillary troops were already with her from now to the last ditch and caucus, which means Edwards was drawing off from Obama. Keep Edwards in the race, and Hillary stands a real chance and multiple plurality wins on Tsunami Tuesday which could give her an unstoppable momentum heading to the Potamac Primaries a week later.
Now, she is head up with Obama…and we will see how that turns out.
This whole process reminds me of the dynamics of a multi candidate convention…typically there is a one candidate who everyone knows or should know. For instance, in the recent Va-1 GOP convention it was Chuck Davis.
The feeling is that said candidate is so well known that they will win early on or never because everyone knows them and will be supporting them early if they are going to support that candidate at all. Again, just like Chuck Davis…who led early but never cleared 50% and did not get the nomination.
I am beginning to think Mrs. Clinton has some of the same stuff going on. You know her, and if you love her you are already behind her. If not, it is unlikely she will get you on board.
That is why I think she better run the table on Tsunami Tuesday. If she doesn’t put it away, then the Obama goes into halftime still deep in the fight despite Clinton beginning the game with all the advantages…and the Senator from Illinois will be ready to come back in the second half and fully confident that he can do it.
Oh, and if Obama leads? Then the whole thing might be over…