Life Goes On…and Feder Fades?

My sincere thanks go out to the denizens of the blogophere for all the kind comments that have come in over the past few days-they are greatly appreciated.  I think I will wait on the long Dad post until my thoughts are better collected.

But despite our grief, life moves on…and the strangest things happen.

A friend, apparently seeking to cheer me up, sent me an email to check the Cook Report House chart for Virginia, then check the Change Summary.

Bottom line on the race from the 9.18.2008 Cook Report:

VA-10 Frank Wolf Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Democratic former Georgetown dean and 2006 nominee Judy Feder is well-funded, but would need a very serious Obama tailwind to lift her into a competitive race with Wolf, who is well-established in the hyper-expensive DC media market. Plenty of new voters will be headed to the polls in this fast-growing district, but Feder is having difficulty painting Wolf as a Bush lackey.

Looks like despite the money, Ms. Feder is losing steam-which would explain her rush to get less than specutacular commercials on television in order to establish presence.

Surprisingly enough all those folks at RK who trumpeted Ms. Feder’s move to the “likely” category are completely silent on the race moving back into the “solid” category.

I realize this is all inside baseball.  However, my instinct is that the Feder effort is losing momentum…which means only one thing…they are going to throw some huge kitchen sink at Congressman Wolf in an effort to unbalance the race. The charge will have little or no real significance, but I bet you that desperation is about to raise its ugly head at the Feder HQ…and when that happens this race will get ugly.

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2 thoughts on “Life Goes On…and Feder Fades?

  1. if only it were so Bwana, though I do agree the downgrade from Cook sucks for Feder.

    Feder seems to be playing a much kinder, gentler hand this time around. I’d be surprised to see nasty attacks out of the Feder campaign. Though I do agree something will need to shake this race up.

    Some scary news for Wolf (and good news for Feder) out of Survey USA’s recent VA poll:

    1. In the Washington DC suburbs, Obama now polls at 59% and leads McCain by 21 points. (yeah, yeah you guys love to talk about those Webb/Wolf Warner/Wolf voters…we all know that voter registration in NoVa has added hundreds of thousands of voters in the last couple of years…those new voters have no loyalty to Wolf. Don’t expect them to split the ticket in favor of the GOP)

    2. Among women, Obama led by 6 points before Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket, now leads by 16.

    3. Among college educated voters, Obama has gained 6 points and McCain has lost 5 points in the past 2 weeks. Among lower-income voters, Obama’s advantage has increased by 17 points in the past 6 weeks.

    4. Obama leads by 28 points among Moderates, and on that Virginia battlefield, the contest may be decided.

  2. I have always endorsed the view of statistics as propounded by Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli, hence the only polling I really believe is the one held on election day.

    A different spin on the situation is that Feder still has to get by years of quality constituent service by Congressman Wolf, and a solid wellspring of support he has developed over time. I haven’t seen or been made aware of polling that suggests that Obama’s support is reaching down to provide huge coattails. Ms. Feder’s presence has not been overwhelming, and the fact that the race has been bumped back to safe GOP by Cook and by Rothenburg suggests that something is amiss in her campaign.

    My view-and I expressed this view long before the 2006 elections-is that modern voters are more sophisticated and are less and less likely to vote a straight party ticket. In fact, my experience is that folks like to vote split tickets because it gives them a sense of fairness, wisdom, and not being partisan. So you may discount the possibility of a split ticket among new voters…I don’t, and if the ticket splits it will split toward Frank Wolf.

    I still think she has an uphill struggle, I halfway think these upgrades to the GOP in Va-10 may start to hurt her fundraising, and a loss for her this year likely ends her congressional aspirations…accordingly, I think that kitchen sink is being positioned.

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