After blasting Bob McDonnell in the guise of suggesting Creigh Deeds has his “Mo-Jo” back, Barnie Day offers a conclusion that effectively shows how badly off Creigh Deeds is running.
I will say up front that I am a long time Barnie Day fan, own a copy of his book on Virginia politics, and look forward to his musings on the same…but now and then he puts on his partisan hat and gets a little overheated.
After savaging Bob McDonnell in a column that purportedly is about Creigh Deeds getting his “mo-jo” back (but offers no evidence to back up his claim), Barnie writes:
What is clear is this: given a year-long, unimpeded running field, McDonnell is still below 50% among registered voters in Virginia.
Even us lip-movers know what this means: the electorate is waiting.
For those of you who don’t know, “lip-movers” refere to those who move their lips when they read, and is Barnie’s quaint term for rural voters on his home turf of Meadows of Dan, VA.
Of course, even the lip-movers know that a waiting electorate is a really bad thing for Creigh Deeds.
It is highly unusual for an incumbent candidate or the candidate representing the status quo to benefit from late surges. It is pretty clear why…voters know how things are, and if they like the way things are they stick with them that got ’em there. The longer they wait to make up there minds, the less sure they are about the status quo and the more likely they will be to either want change or at least be willing to try something different.
Creigh Deeds is the candidate of the Democratic Party-the party that holds the White House with a historic incumbent and the party that has held the Virginia Governor’s mansion since January 2002. He is the beneficiary of the wave of positive publicity that came from his sweeping victory in a hotly contested Democratic Party Primary where the negative campaigning was between the two men he defeated.
After catching his breath from excoriating Bob McDonnell, folks like Barnie may want to consider a different perspective. The important factor is not that Bob McDonnell is under 50% among registered voters…the true spotlight factor is that with all the advantages listed above, that Creigh Deeds is running far behind Bob McDonnell both overall and among registered voters.
That fact not only does not suggest a new Mo-Jo, it suggests something far less positive…as any lip-mover will tell you.