The Hot Corner-37th Senate Special Election?

A member of the Virginia House of Delegates must give up his seat to run for statewide office.  Not so for a Virginia state Senator, where the four year terms occur two years after the Gubernatorial election.

If the votes fall right there could be three special elections-in Creigh Deeds 25th district (running for Governor), Ken Cuccinelli’s 37th district (running for AG), and Ken Stolle’s 8th district (running for Sheriff in Virginia Beach).  Recent polling results have led to more attention to the 37th, which is also my home senate district.

Discussion of who will run is already simmering. A number of GOP names are floating, while to my surprise The Hoot is attempting to resurrect herself for a run-despite losing to Cuccinelli in 2007 in a campaign that was so bad that the WaPo refused to endorse her. You see, although the WaPO was philosophically opposed to The Cooch they discovered The Hoot really had nothing to offer and had “run a lackluster campaign, at times embarrassingly short on substance”.

The Mason Conservative calls her efforts “rebranding”.  I call them “ridiculous”.

Jeff Schapiro checks in from a different perspective.  He notes that if Bob McDonnell wins next month and the Senate numbers are close he might tempt Senate Democrats with jobs in his administration to bring about a GOP majority (a la Jim Gilmore in 1999).  Several problems must be overcome before this option  pre=”option “>is considered.  The 37th is arguably a Democratic district as currently composed.  It was a great upset when The Cooch held onto his seat in 2007.  If a  Democrat picks it up then the balance goes to 22-18.  This possibility gets even more tenuous if Stolle wins his race and a democrat (like Jody Wagner) wins his senate seat.

So Schapiro’s question is valid, but not yet ripe for full discussion.  Meanwhile, back in the 37th…

You may ask if the district is so Democrat, why aren’t any number of Democrats lining up to take a shot at it?  First, I think several are waiting to see if the opportunity actually comes up.  Second, reapportionment will be done prior to the 2011 elections.  There is a theory that if NoVA gets another senate seat that George Barker and/or Chap Peterson would prefer to cut up the 37th and push its more GOP leaning precincts into some type of connection with Western Prince William County. I discussed last April in the context of what an East end PW Senate seat could do to a potential Jeff Frederick v. Bob Marshall senate primary.

The short term impact? How many folks are going to want to run for in a Senate district that is likely to be dismembered in the next apportionment?

So between the general election, special elections, and reapportionment my little corner of Virginia could turn into the hot corner of Virginia Politics over the next two years.

Finally-something exciting happening around Burke!

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