…and if so, President Obama might be in better shape than he realizes.
Tom Davis recently offered his take on the political climate, and it bears considering.
While you may not like his brand of conservatism (and from the back from comes a snort “What conservatism?”), Tom Davis has a deserved reputation as a stellar political analyst. His analysis must be considered as we move through the 2010 election and toward the 2012 presidential election.
Because if it is all about anger, then the GOP had better start coming up with real plans and real vision for the future.
Former Congressman Davis views the voting populace as angry with politicians. He notes that since 9/11 little good news has been delivered to the American public, and that it started to boil over in 2006. As he says, the reaction is intensified when the same party holds the House, Senate, and White House. The Anger theory can account for GOP results in 2006 and 2008 and (if polling data holds up) the potential shellacking being predicted for the Democrats in 2010.
There is an assumption in some quarters that a big GOP win in 2010 is a precursor to blowing Obama out of the White House in 2012. But if the Anger theory is accurate, then a big GOP win in 2010 will put the GOP to catch some of the blame between 2010 and 2012. As Tom Davis points out, the anger is directed at the party in power…but can the Anger last into 2012? Remember, the 2006 elections came after six years of Bush 43, more than ten years of GOP control of the House, and GOP control of the Senate for much of the past ten years.
I have to wonder if by 2012 the democrats will have had the reins for long enough to enough steam to give the GOP back to back blowouts.
I doubt it. I suspect that things will look bright enough by 2012 that the country will not go in for four consecutive big rollover elections, and will seek some balance…although that balance might be a GOP congress and a Democratic president.
We shall see…