Since I have not had chance to post regularly during the election season, I thought there was no reason to jump in during the final days-too much like shooting the wounded. But since we have finally arrived on election day, it is time to offer a few ruminations on what the next few hours bring and those that have just passed by…
1. Interesting to compare the Democratic fervor to save Tom P in Va-5 with the completely blase reaction so many of the Dem blogs had to Creigh Deeds a year ago. You will recall that in 2009 various high volume dem blogs had their analysis and denundiation of the Deeds efforts on line by noon, while today they are still urging folks to get out and help.
2. Va-11 will be a bellweather election. This district is somewhat cushioned from national political vitriol…but if Fimian beats Connolly at all, the GOP gain today may go as high as 70 seats.
2a. If you want to elect Fimian, or to simply remove Connolly, you need to vote today for Fimian. Between winning in a GOP Wave year, then getting a likely push from redistricting, a Connolly win is going to leave him dug in deep.
2b. If the reports are true of a $1 million dollar infusion for Connolly from the DCCC, then you know he has to be doing less well than anticipated.
3. Interesting comment by Brit Hume…the higher the GOP gain the more the election results can/will be seen as being unhappy with the Democrats or with Obama. If the gain is less than fifty, many will spin it as being unhappy with the economy and are taking it out on the party in power.
4. If the GOP gets to +9 in the Senate, they are really going to be regretting that Delaware primary. Remember, also, that the GOP potentially needs as much +11 to get majority control. If they get +9, and Sanders caucuses Democrat and (even if) Lieberman caucses with the GOP, you still have a tied chamber and Biden will vote democrat in organizing the Senate. At +10, if the two Independents caucus democrat, same thing holds true. Remember, opening situation is D-58, GOP-40, Ind-2
5. Is Barney Frank really in trouble? Dang…I will believe that when I see it.
6. Most of the obits for former Congressman Owen Picket (D/Va-2) omit the fact that but for Doug Wilder he might have elected a US Senator in 1982. He was a sitting delegate and a Chuck Robb favorite, but in his announcement he sung the praises of the Byrd era fiscal practices-this was the year when Harry Byrd, Jr. stepped down. Wilder took issue with his comments, and Wilder said he would run as an independent if Pickett were the nominee. Wilder could not be dissuaded, and Pickett got out of the race-and instead beat Joe Canada for the Va-2 seat when Bill Whitehurst stepped down in 1986.
7. It is interesting to see the different tenor of the Virginia political blogs without a statewide race to create a shared focus.
8. I would not have replaced McNabb in the Fourth Quarter.
9. I have found language that scares me more than “Speaker Pelosi”…that would be “Speaker Heath Shuler”
10. Thumbs up for the new show “Blue Bloods” on CBS.
11. When will the Democrats of Va-8 unseat their incumbent embarassment in a primary?
12. This year’s results will cause a lot of folks to review the 2008 elections and ask to what degree were folks voting for Obama or against Bush? If it’s the latter (a point made to me at a party last weekend), then the Democrats may be in trouble again in 2012…because this is still a center-right nation.
13a) Obama will replace Biden with Hillary in 2012.
13b) Obama will immediately send up new job stimulus legislation as soon as the new congress is sworn in.
13c) Terry McAuliffe will spend at least $500K in support of Democratic legislative candidates in Va in 2011.
13d) If Connolly wins out this year, prepare for a 2013 NOVA-geddon primary fight between he and Chap!
14. George Allen, please do not run for the GOP nod for the Senate in 2012.
15. The strongest argument that President Obama will be reelected is the weakness of the field of potential opponents…
16. Frank Wolf gets a Tea Party challenge in 2012. Absolutely no facts behind that, just a hunch. And yes, that means that I don’t see Congressman Wolf stepping down any time soon.
17. I find it execrable how so many clever Democrats refer to Tea Party members as “teabaggers”.
18. Glad to see that the IAFF gang had their traditional black and gold sign up touting Democratic candidates. I admire their consistency, and it reminded me that an election was coming up.
19. If there is a wave, I hope the GOP doesn’t let it cloud their planning-after two years of saying “no”, the results this year are a vote against Democratic Party policies and not in favor of the GOP. There is a big difference there.
20. For some reason, the predicted race result I find most shocking is the Wisconsin Senate race-I wonder if Feingold wishes he had run for President in 2008.
Have a good day…and if you have not exercised your franchise today, remember-Vote early, Vote often!