Sunday General Assembly Ruminations…

Strange things these days. As I cycle through my old regular blogs, I get the feeling we are looking at a somewhat odd set of elections coming up. Of course, this feeling is off set by the unique factors of each of these blogs.

At BlueVa, the folks are all fired up about Obama, McDonnell, and the Braddock District Supervisor race. At BlueVA, the typical sentiment is snark, name calling, and a willingness to praise the ethical lapses of Democratic officeholders when there are no facts to support their contentions…and that has been the case in the Braddock race. But what strikes me is that we are less than a month from election day and there is a serious dearth of promoted articles on General Assembly races. Typically Lowell and Company are really singing the praises of any Democrat who has a reasonable chance of winning. Is this silence indicative of the wave that is being predicted over at BVBL?

Speaking of whom, BVBL argues that Saslaw is about to lose his majority. The claim is that there are a variety of races that are slipping to the GOP, but no solid data is provided. I can buy the idea of George Barker being in trouble-he was not an overwhelming winner in 2007. I can buy the idae that Dick Black is in good shape in his district-it is a district that statistically offers a GOP candidate a good shot.

But the idea that Chuck Colgan, with a huge money edge, is going to lose to a newcomer to PW Co politics? That Jeff Frederick, in a district cut to at least give Toddy Puller an edge, is winning now? I am not jumping on that one so quickly. Plus, there is no mention of VA 22nd in Lynchburg, where the GOP nominated a candidate from the edge of the district and not from the population center.

The GOP may be on the verge of a smashing victory that will send Senator Saslaw back to obscurity-and if Saslaw loses his majority that is exactly what should happen. I think it fair to say “Saslaw” and not the “Democrats” because the Democratic field of candidates is so clearly a reflection of the will of the Democratic leader that it could reasonably be said the Virginia Senate will be comprised of Republicans and Saslawcrats.

Meanwhile, in Loudoun County there are serious opportunities for a majority on the Board of Supervisors and winning new/open General Assembly seats. However if the posts at Too Conservative are to be believed many of these races are tied up in matters so byzantine and/or personal that one would have to backtrack and read back several months or even years worth of posts to fully understand what is happening.

Bottom line-there seems to be a reasonable chance the GOP can take the Senate, both because of national concerns and local factors…and it occurs to me that the source of that problem-as a symbol or as a sign-might be right here in my backyard…but that is for another day.

UPDATE: Now the TC feuds have spilled over to BVBL.


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