Ruminations: Election Day 2011

Try as I might, I cannot conjure my normal essay type thoughts on today-so instead a few disjointed thoughts…

I imagine the GOP holds the Virginia House of Delegates.  Yeah, BIG shock there…

The GOP takes the State Senate 21-19.  Now, if this is the real wave election folks are talking about, then it could go up to 25 or 26…but I doubt it.

Why do I doubt it?  Because no matter how anti-Obama RoVA might be, NoVA is not exactly replete with bands ready to light torches and storm the castle.  The same economic factors that have protected the area from the worst of the recession also blunt public antipathy toward President Obama.  That being said, I think there is a pecking order in NoVA that shows how bad things are for the Democrats:

Northern Virginia Flood Wall markings:
1. George Barker Va-39
2. Toddy Puller Va-36
3. Dave Marsden Va-37
4. Chuck Colgan Va-29
5. Barb Favola Va-31
6. Mark Herring Va-33
7. Chap! Petersen Va-34

The higher up this list the defeats, the more horrible the wave. I think Barker is in trouble, and would be without a wave effect. The rest of these folks normally would not be in trouble absent a palpable amount of dislike toward Democratic candidates.  All need to at least have the Democratic base come out.  The more disenchanted the base, and the more energized the unaligned (as opposed to undecided) voters are to oppose them…the more trouble they are in.

John Cook will win out in Braddock District, and I imagine Sharon Bulova wins reelection as County Chairman.

I bet by the end of the day the real Democratic goats will be:
a) Whomever pushed their reapportionment plan. Who’d have thought the Democrats could reapportion themselves out of a majority?
b) John Miller, who flushed away a massive amount of his incumbent advantage by introducing legislation that created tax breaks for certain companies, then taking a job with one of those companies. That is-uh…really stupid, Senator Miller.
c) Dick Saslaw IF Brandon Bell loses and several democratic incumbents lose by so close a margin that even a portion of the $$ that Saslaw poured into Bell’s campaign could have made the crucial difference in their campaign.

Dick Black will win Va 13 by a wide enough margin to make himself a real PITA for the next four years.  Once in office, I suspect the discrete major issues candidate will give way to the social issues guy we all know and love.

Have Sharon Bulova and Chap! really made up after the August Braddock primary?  In a primary in 2013 will Bulova’s Bunch readily line up behind Chap! ?

Just as interesting…what happens to the Democratic field for 2013 if the Senate changes hands, especially in the 23 seat range?  New Democratic Leadership?  Higher profile for Chap! for 2013?  More of a call for Terry McAuliffe?

Perhaps the real thermometer of how the Democrats will do today is seen in the absence of partisan rhetoric about the legislative races from Blue Virginia.  There have been the normal passing by editorial kidney shots (like those passing shots prize fighters give) that Lowell specializes in, but there has been a real absence of cheerleading for Democratic legislative candidates.    Lots of bashing of Dick (BV Alias: “Plastic Fetus Guy) Black, and some passing shots at Jeff Frederick, but nothing in massive defense of the bulk of Democratic candidates.  In past years (and in the predecessor RK) Lowell would have put up any number of articles supporting any candidate with the “D” next to their name.

As always, my thanks to all those-regardless of party-who run for office.  It is a sacrifice and a burden, and I tip my hat to you for taking on the task.

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