Monday Morning Ruminations 3.5.2012

A few things come to mind this AM…

GOP overreach in Richmond is unfortunate and somewhat predictable.  The last time the GOP had a GA win similar to the Quasi-regain in 2011 was after the 2001 elections…and in the wake of that blowout we had the GOP staff eavesdropping/Wilkins harassment scandals.  Hubris strikes.  This year the GOP, rather than push on kitchen table issues, has mistaken the nature of the electorate and gone all social issues.  They seem to forget that social issues resonate only when fundamental matters like security and the economy are in balance.  Alas, and to paraphrase, those who fail to learn the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

Despite the crowing at Blue Virginia over GOP tomfoolery, Obama’s relection chances, Timmy over George, etc., they are downplaying a small bit of hubris and ego in the Democratic Party.  Retired USAF General John Douglass has been gearing up for a shot at Frank Wolf in Va-10 for some time.  Now redistricting has moved him into the 5th district, and Douglass has decided he needs to gear up for a shot at Robert Hurt, despite there already being a democratic candidate out and about in the district.

Lowell and the Diaries has chosen not to comment on the front line Democratic candidate planning to challenge Congressman Wolf not running against him, the potential for Wolf to get a free ride in 2012, or the fact that Douglass in running in Va 5 has revealed himself to be a man of ego and ambition who is without party loyalty who simply wants to run for Congress this year.

The Democrats in Richmond are back to their old tricks.  They vote against the GOP budget because they want more seats on Senate Committees…yet they do not offer an alternative budget.  I wonder how this will play long-term.

I understand why everyone is upset with Gregg Williams and his bounty system.  But I played HS football back in the day, and you knew your chances of winning improved if you could neutralize the best players on the opposing team.  Headhunting has been going on for generations, and will continue no matter how Williams is disciplined.  By the same token, the decision by The Danny not to hire him as head coach when Joe Gibbs II ended now seems like a really good idea.

UPDATE: One day after I note the lack of Va-5 chatter on Blue Virginia, the place goes crazy with chatter…

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New Reason for Frank Wolf Never to Retire…

We already know there are a host of candidates lining up on either side of the aisle to take a shot at Va-10 when Frank Wolf is no longer in office.

Yesterday, that line got a little longer thanks to the Dick Black victory in the Virginia 13 Senate contest.

I do not know which Dick Black will arrive in Richmond-the fundamental issues guy of the 2011 campaign, or the social issues guy who passes out plastic trinkets. If the latter, we have a strong reason to hope Congressman Wolf never retires, as the presence of the newly Senate credentialed Dick Black will likely inject an entirely new and more stressful level of discord into the process.

Congressman Wolf, puh-leeze stay right where you are for just as long as you want!

Why is it…

…that Fairfax County, the largest county in the commonwealth and supposedly the home of the Digital Dominion, always brings in its election results so slowly?

Ruminations: Election Day 2011

Try as I might, I cannot conjure my normal essay type thoughts on today-so instead a few disjointed thoughts…

I imagine the GOP holds the Virginia House of Delegates.  Yeah, BIG shock there…

The GOP takes the State Senate 21-19.  Now, if this is the real wave election folks are talking about, then it could go up to 25 or 26…but I doubt it.

Why do I doubt it?  Because no matter how anti-Obama RoVA might be, NoVA is not exactly replete with bands ready to light torches and storm the castle.  The same economic factors that have protected the area from the worst of the recession also blunt public antipathy toward President Obama.  That being said, I think there is a pecking order in NoVA that shows how bad things are for the Democrats:

Northern Virginia Flood Wall markings:
1. George Barker Va-39
2. Toddy Puller Va-36
3. Dave Marsden Va-37
4. Chuck Colgan Va-29
5. Barb Favola Va-31
6. Mark Herring Va-33
7. Chap! Petersen Va-34

The higher up this list the defeats, the more horrible the wave. I think Barker is in trouble, and would be without a wave effect. The rest of these folks normally would not be in trouble absent a palpable amount of dislike toward Democratic candidates.  All need to at least have the Democratic base come out.  The more disenchanted the base, and the more energized the unaligned (as opposed to undecided) voters are to oppose them…the more trouble they are in.

John Cook will win out in Braddock District, and I imagine Sharon Bulova wins reelection as County Chairman.

I bet by the end of the day the real Democratic goats will be:
a) Whomever pushed their reapportionment plan. Who’d have thought the Democrats could reapportion themselves out of a majority?
b) John Miller, who flushed away a massive amount of his incumbent advantage by introducing legislation that created tax breaks for certain companies, then taking a job with one of those companies. That is-uh…really stupid, Senator Miller.
c) Dick Saslaw IF Brandon Bell loses and several democratic incumbents lose by so close a margin that even a portion of the $$ that Saslaw poured into Bell’s campaign could have made the crucial difference in their campaign.

Dick Black will win Va 13 by a wide enough margin to make himself a real PITA for the next four years.  Once in office, I suspect the discrete major issues candidate will give way to the social issues guy we all know and love.

Have Sharon Bulova and Chap! really made up after the August Braddock primary?  In a primary in 2013 will Bulova’s Bunch readily line up behind Chap! ?

Just as interesting…what happens to the Democratic field for 2013 if the Senate changes hands, especially in the 23 seat range?  New Democratic Leadership?  Higher profile for Chap! for 2013?  More of a call for Terry McAuliffe?

Perhaps the real thermometer of how the Democrats will do today is seen in the absence of partisan rhetoric about the legislative races from Blue Virginia.  There have been the normal passing by editorial kidney shots (like those passing shots prize fighters give) that Lowell specializes in, but there has been a real absence of cheerleading for Democratic legislative candidates.    Lots of bashing of Dick (BV Alias: “Plastic Fetus Guy) Black, and some passing shots at Jeff Frederick, but nothing in massive defense of the bulk of Democratic candidates.  In past years (and in the predecessor RK) Lowell would have put up any number of articles supporting any candidate with the “D” next to their name.

As always, my thanks to all those-regardless of party-who run for office.  It is a sacrifice and a burden, and I tip my hat to you for taking on the task.

Democratic Disappointment, Part 3: See Who They Run…

It is Election Day, and we see the net sum of Democratic Disappointment I have recently referenced…and that sum is found in the large number of seats where the Democrats have no candidates.  Forty Senate seats, and 11 of 18 GOP incumbents are getting free rides.  It is a testimony to the Democrats in ability to either recruit candidates or to develop a bench.

But when one is more worried about keeping power than in standing for something, what do you expect to happen?

Someone may think that is too harsh a statement…but consider two Northern Virginia districts.

The seat in Virginia 37 came open in 2009 after incumbent Ken Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General.  The Democrats decided in order to gain the seat they had to tab Dave Marsden-who did not have a residence in the district-to run.  This is a district in the middle of blue to purple Fairfax County.  QUESTION-why no bench?  Who knows.  Why a carpetbagger?  Because it was their best chance to win.

The Virginia 29 seat was won by Chuck Colgan in 1975.  In 2003, he talked about retiring.  Mark Warner talked him out of it by saying only Colgan could hold the seat for the Democrats.  In 2007 Colgan talked about retiring.  Warner and Kaine talked him out of it, saying only Colgan could hold the seat for the Democrats.  In 2011, Colgan talked about retiring…and is back on the ballot.  You can guess how that turned out.  QUESTION-why no bench?  Who knows.  Why repeatedly drag back a man who has repeatedly stated a desire to retire?  Because it was their best chance to win.

A raft of unopposed Republicans.  Carpetbaggers.  Incumbents who have to be begged to run for reelection.  Is this a sign of a party that is strong in message and in people?

No  message.  No direction. No bench.  No guiding principle except holding onto power.

Is it any wonder the GOP is favored to take back the Senate?

Dirty Tricks in Braddock?

Just got a robo call urging me to vote today for John Cook.  Not a reminder about tomorrow, but to vote today.

I called Cook HQ.  I was told they are aware of the scam, it is an outside group doing what he labeled a “Democratic dirty trick”.

Only one more day of silliness…