We already know there are a host of candidates lining up on either side of the aisle to take a shot at Va-10 when Frank Wolf is no longer in office.

Yesterday, that line got a little longer thanks to the Dick Black victory in the Virginia 13 Senate contest.

I do not know which Dick Black will arrive in Richmond-the fundamental issues guy of the 2011 campaign, or the social issues guy who passes out plastic trinkets. If the latter, we have a strong reason to hope Congressman Wolf never retires, as the presence of the newly Senate credentialed Dick Black will likely inject an entirely new and more stressful level of discord into the process.

Congressman Wolf, puh-leeze stay right where you are for just as long as you want!

…a little faster than I anticipated.

Well, at least it isn’t like 2009 when the posts excoriating the Creigh Deeds campaign came out before the polls closed.

…that Fairfax County, the largest county in the commonwealth and supposedly the home of the Digital Dominion, always brings in its election results so slowly?

Try as I might, I cannot conjure my normal essay type thoughts on today-so instead a few disjointed thoughts…

I imagine the GOP holds the Virginia House of Delegates.  Yeah, BIG shock there…

The GOP takes the State Senate 21-19.  Now, if this is the real wave election folks are talking about, then it could go up to 25 or 26…but I doubt it.

Why do I doubt it?  Because no matter how anti-Obama RoVA might be, NoVA is not exactly replete with bands ready to light torches and storm the castle.  The same economic factors that have protected the area from the worst of the recession also blunt public antipathy toward President Obama.  That being said, I think there is a pecking order in NoVA that shows how bad things are for the Democrats:

Northern Virginia Flood Wall markings:
1. George Barker Va-39
2. Toddy Puller Va-36
3. Dave Marsden Va-37
4. Chuck Colgan Va-29
5. Barb Favola Va-31
6. Mark Herring Va-33
7. Chap! Petersen Va-34

The higher up this list the defeats, the more horrible the wave. I think Barker is in trouble, and would be without a wave effect. The rest of these folks normally would not be in trouble absent a palpable amount of dislike toward Democratic candidates.  All need to at least have the Democratic base come out.  The more disenchanted the base, and the more energized the unaligned (as opposed to undecided) voters are to oppose them…the more trouble they are in.

John Cook will win out in Braddock District, and I imagine Sharon Bulova wins reelection as County Chairman.

I bet by the end of the day the real Democratic goats will be:
a) Whomever pushed their reapportionment plan. Who’d have thought the Democrats could reapportion themselves out of a majority?
b) John Miller, who flushed away a massive amount of his incumbent advantage by introducing legislation that created tax breaks for certain companies, then taking a job with one of those companies. That is-uh…really stupid, Senator Miller.
c) Dick Saslaw IF Brandon Bell loses and several democratic incumbents lose by so close a margin that even a portion of the $$ that Saslaw poured into Bell’s campaign could have made the crucial difference in their campaign.

Dick Black will win Va 13 by a wide enough margin to make himself a real PITA for the next four years.  Once in office, I suspect the discrete major issues candidate will give way to the social issues guy we all know and love.

Have Sharon Bulova and Chap! really made up after the August Braddock primary?  In a primary in 2013 will Bulova’s Bunch readily line up behind Chap! ?

Just as interesting…what happens to the Democratic field for 2013 if the Senate changes hands, especially in the 23 seat range?  New Democratic Leadership?  Higher profile for Chap! for 2013?  More of a call for Terry McAuliffe?

Perhaps the real thermometer of how the Democrats will do today is seen in the absence of partisan rhetoric about the legislative races from Blue Virginia.  There have been the normal passing by editorial kidney shots (like those passing shots prize fighters give) that Lowell specializes in, but there has been a real absence of cheerleading for Democratic legislative candidates.    Lots of bashing of Dick (BV Alias: “Plastic Fetus Guy) Black, and some passing shots at Jeff Frederick, but nothing in massive defense of the bulk of Democratic candidates.  In past years (and in the predecessor RK) Lowell would have put up any number of articles supporting any candidate with the “D” next to their name.

As always, my thanks to all those-regardless of party-who run for office.  It is a sacrifice and a burden, and I tip my hat to you for taking on the task.

It is Election Day, and we see the net sum of Democratic Disappointment I have recently referenced…and that sum is found in the large number of seats where the Democrats have no candidates.  Forty Senate seats, and 11 of 18 GOP incumbents are getting free rides.  It is a testimony to the Democrats in ability to either recruit candidates or to develop a bench.

But when one is more worried about keeping power than in standing for something, what do you expect to happen?

Someone may think that is too harsh a statement…but consider two Northern Virginia districts.

The seat in Virginia 37 came open in 2009 after incumbent Ken Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General.  The Democrats decided in order to gain the seat they had to tab Dave Marsden-who did not have a residence in the district-to run.  This is a district in the middle of blue to purple Fairfax County.  QUESTION-why no bench?  Who knows.  Why a carpetbagger?  Because it was their best chance to win.

The Virginia 29 seat was won by Chuck Colgan in 1975.  In 2003, he talked about retiring.  Mark Warner talked him out of it by saying only Colgan could hold the seat for the Democrats.  In 2007 Colgan talked about retiring.  Warner and Kaine talked him out of it, saying only Colgan could hold the seat for the Democrats.  In 2011, Colgan talked about retiring…and is back on the ballot.  You can guess how that turned out.  QUESTION-why no bench?  Who knows.  Why repeatedly drag back a man who has repeatedly stated a desire to retire?  Because it was their best chance to win.

A raft of unopposed Republicans.  Carpetbaggers.  Incumbents who have to be begged to run for reelection.  Is this a sign of a party that is strong in message and in people?

No  message.  No direction. No bench.  No guiding principle except holding onto power.

Is it any wonder the GOP is favored to take back the Senate?

Just got a robo call urging me to vote today for John Cook.  Not a reminder about tomorrow, but to vote today.

I called Cook HQ.  I was told they are aware of the scam, it is an outside group doing what he labeled a “Democratic dirty trick”.

Only one more day of silliness…

 

As I stand among the Sturm and Drang of the 2011 General Assembly races, I received truly exciting news…

Robert Caro will release volume 4 of his biography of Lyndon Baines Johnson on May 1, 2012.  “The Passage of Power” will take up where “Master of the Senate” concluded, and cover the years 1958 to 1964.

It has been a wonderous path Caro himself has trod, as this article describes.

One additional news bit is that what was originally announced as a four book series has been extended to five. Mr. Caro will cover LBJ’s presidential attempt in 1960 through election in his own right in 1964 in Volume 4, then the Great Society and Vietnam through to LBJ’s death in volume 5.

The books are wonderous excursions into not just the life of a president but the life of a region, then a country, and how those places lived and grew. The Caro books are wonderous as much for their side stories as for the biography of the selected individual. His description of the importance of bringing electricity to the Texas Hill country, and how it changed lives, is a marvelous passage almost worthy of a book itself.

In addition these side excursions which so wonderfully frame the main story, I look forward to what I call the “Cornerstone Biographies” that will likely seen in Volume 4.

In all the LBJ books plus “The Power Broker” ( a biography of Robert Moses) Caro has selected one or two people who were critical to helping or hindering the book subject and written mini biographies of them to show how they fit into Moses/LBJ’s life.  In fact, his 15000 words on Sam Rayburn in “Path to Power” was considered to be the best biographical effort about Sam Rayburn until D.B. Hardemann wrote the definitive Rayburn bio in 1989.

The past cornerstones are:

The Power Broker: Al Smith, Nelson Rockefeller
Path to Power: Sam Rayburn
Means of Ascent: Coke Stevenson
Master of the Senate: Richard Russell, Hubert Humphrey
The Passage of Power-???

The question is simply delicious to me…who will it be, and how many will it be?  One or Two Cornerstones?  The possibilities are just incredible…JFK, RFK, MLK, Adlai Stevenson, and my personal favorite-Everett Dirksen, the GOP leader in the Senate in the 1960′s who played such a key role in bringing in GOP votes in favor of Civil Rights legislation.

We shall see…as of now, May 1 is circled in red ink on my calendar!

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Near as I can tell it is the time of the year to go for “Too”.  No, not the two point conversion after a touchdown…but the “Too’s” that refer to excessive something-and we’ve got plenty of it going around.

No, this is not a reference to the blog Too Conservative.

First there is the “Too Cute”.  Someone gets an idea, often an idea that is not that important, and blow it up and through unbridled creativity and bad judgement turn it into a problem.  This award goes to the LCRC for their ghoulish depiction of President Obama as a zombie with a bullet hole in his forehead. I can just picture the conversation:

Wayne: We need a new graphic for the website for Halloween
Garth: How about a zombie?
Wayne: Woah…how about a zombie with a bullet hole in his head?
Garth: Yeah-but only if really scares folks…you know, someone folks know..
Wayne: And a bunch of other pictures-maybe with a girl zombie
Garth: Girl zombie…someone everyone knows? How about…
Wayne: OBAMA and…
Garth: PELOSI!
Both: TOTALLY AWESOME!

Yeah…party on. In fact, their too cuteness was so awesome that it garnered television coverage, newspaper coverage, blog coverage…and a raft of terrible publicity for the LCRC less than ten days from an election.

Meanwhile, back in Fairfax is the Too Clever bunch at Put Braddock First (PBF)-better known to Virginia politics as Petersen, Bulova, Oleszek, and Tribbett.   Recently I mentioned the unusual financial reports submitted by PBF. Ben Tribbett, the group treasurer, sent me an email assuring me it was legal.  Apparently is is all a matter of timing, as PACS and the like are on a different reporting calendar than candidates. Based on the information in front of me, I buy that explanation.

But his answer does not explain why do it this way?  With the same three candidates being both the only contributors and the only recipients of benefit, and with a paper trail that easily shows that these are candidate financed mailings, why do it? It seems like a lot of effort for little result. Bottom line-”Too Clever”.

Last but not least is Shawn Mitchell.  Before the LCRC lost its common sense and went all Zombie on us Mitchell had provided the big shocker in Loudoun County (and parts of Prince William).  Apparently running behind Dick Black, Mitchell-as have Democrats before him-began to demonize Black over being Pro-Life and supportive of Second Amendment rights…or, in Liberal speak-Abortions and Guns.  However, it was not enough for Mr. Mitchell to take issue with Mr. Black’s record.  He felt the need to send out this image.

Really? Doesn’t he realize that a recitation of Mr. Black’s record without this image would be adequate to fire up the faithful? Now he has managed to fire up the faithful, fire up those opposed to him, and likely disgust undecided voters with bad judgement in using such a picture. I can only imagine he is “Too Desperate”…a candidate who thought he was in better condition with the voters would not have chanced using this image.

Yep-we are in the middle of “Too” season…and I fear there are a few more “too”‘s yet to be seen:

Alas, it is todays version of democracy at work, and all this conduct is “too telling”, the conduct is all “too sad for words”, and this election is “too far from over” for my taste…

The Mason Conservative is picking around the odd finances of the “Put Braddock First” (PBF) group, which is carrying a $12,500+ debt, apparently based in debt to Mission Control LLC, a mail company that labels itself “One of the Premier Democratic Mail Firms in the Country”.

VPAP shows PBF taking in $450 in in-kind contributions against $900 in-kind expenses. At the same time VPAPA shows PBF has contributed $8684.00 total to The Hoot, Sharon Bulova, and Chap Petersen. The Virginia SBE report reflects the debt to Mission Control.

This bizarre situation is almost perfectly summed up by TMC, who says:

The money out is going only to Oleszek and Bulova, but there is no breakdown of where the money comes from. We are two weeks out from the election, shouldn’t that have been disclosed yet? How can Janet Oleszek accept over $4,000 and Sharon Bulova over $2,000 [B-Note: and almost $2k to Chap!] and it not be disclosed to the public two weeks before an election?

I don’t understand this situation, either.  As of the last campaign report Chap! had $295k on hand, while Bulova between two committees has $200k on hand.  Why are they mucking around with small potatoes like this?  I can only assume this is some way they can underwrite mailings for The Hoot, and I guess in theory and legality it all comes out in the wash.

This last second charge the job and pay later reminds me of the silliness that Judy Feder tried in 2006/2008 in Va-10…but I digress.

If Chap and Sharon B want to pay for a mailing, why launder the money?  I don’t understand the need for this circuitous path, as all it does is raise questions.

What follows is all my speculation and based in nothing more than the erratic wanderings of my grey cells…

I think Chap is playing a dangerous game.  Why engage in this practice when it is so clearly odd and so clearly liable to be misconstrued?  More practically, why do it when the dollar amounts are so small?

By all accounts Chap! wants to run statewide in 2013.  Why create a situation that can only work against him?  This appears to be an arrangement that at the least is contrary to the spirit of the recording laws if not the letter.

I suspect this all gets back to the Braddock primary contest.  Chap! backed The Hoot over the Bulova endorsed candidate.  I think he did that to get in good with the Fairfax Liberal Democrats in preparation for the 2013 Democratic nomination fight.  Having won that fight, he needs some way to paper over any differences with Sharon B, so he goes in on an arrangement that also gets some funds to The Hoot to allow her to more fully demonize her opponent without offering up a single original or positive thought of her own.

(note to self-I wonder how Chap! and Sharon B feel about The Hoot demonizing those who are elected to part-time positions and hold down full time jobs…you know, positions like Virginia state Senator or County Board Chairman).

This manuever just seems too clever by half, and something that will rebound against Chap! down the road.

Runing for statewide office is difficult enough…why do things that can make the road more difficult?  As I said, I have to wonder what game Chap! is playing…whatever it is, it does not look smart.